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Codes of the November 1 Elections

There are 31 days left for the elections.



While we ramble into the last stage, many questions arise, including; will AK Party come to power alone, is the HDP preserving its 13 percent vote rate, is the MHP on a rise or a downfall, and what will the CHP do during these elections?



Political indicators should be followed every day, just like economic data. After the June 7 election results, politics showed a reaction in July. The coalition talks and the period in which a new government was to be founded started to shape politics. Since July, the parties are showing a flat progress with small rises and falls at times.



If we consider that all four parties enter the parliament, then the number of representatives AK Party has is important, rather than the vote rate it receives. The Konda General Director Bekir Ağırdır said, “In 15 cities, representatives can glide to either party based on a 1 percent narrow increase in votes.” AK Parties votes have increased since the June 7 elections. It looks like it will start its election campaign with a 44 percent vote rate, which indicates a 3-point increase in its votes. Before the June elections, AK Party had lost 6 points between January and May. Despite starting its election campaign, it started to lose 1.5 points per month.



Three points stand out as reasons for the increase in AK Party's vote rates.



1-The “government absence” created by AK Party's loss of power alone after the June elections brought “stability” under the spotlight. Having no government and the search for a coalition government resulting negatively, pushed the voters that cared about stability towards AK Party.



2-The MHP Leader Devlet Bahçeli 's uncompromising attitude towards the coalition government and the Turkish Parliamentary Speaker caused the MHP votes to drop, as this attitude was regarded absurd at a time our security forces were being killed by PKK terrorists.



Despite the MHP pulling itself together after the martyrs started to come in, a few points from its votes have shifted towards AK Party.



3-Certain voters of the Felicity Party and the BBP realized that their votes were ineffective after the June 7 elections, thus they decided to bring a single party to power.



During the last elections, AK Party wasted most of its energy disputing the candidate lists. Therefore, when they stepped into the arena they were not as effective as they had expected. This time it is entering the elections with a “strengthened” list.



Battling terrorism and economy are two very important fault lines in politics that are always ready to cause a tsunami. Despite the waves caused by both factors, thankfully nothing the AK Party dreaded happened.



With all these aspects, AK Party achieving power alone is still a very fragile issue. AK Party can conserve its hope of forming a government alone if it achieves a 43-44 percent vote rate. There is the light at the end of the tunnel; it isn't impossible to form a government alone. Achieving this can be a motivation for AK Party during this election marathon. They need to work with high spirit and faith, and leave out the vanity.



The most important threshold for AK Party is dicephaly. It should not give an image that it has dichotomy within the party.



The CHP putting the June 7 results to good use enabled the party to increase its votes by 1 point. This was achieved with its constructive attitude during the coalition talks, and it supporting the government with its fight against terrorism. Doing a primary election before the June elections, the CHP exalted its party by promising economic commitments, rather than ideological ones. The CHP's election declaration will be disclosed today. However, although it avoided disputes by leaving the candidate lists the same, this did not help excite the party supporters.



This situation is interpreted as Kılıçdaroğlu, the CHP leader, wanting to achieve a vote margin between 25 to 30 percent.



The MHP leader Bahçeli caused disappointment in his party after calling for a snap election on the night of June 7, disclosing his uncompromising attitude and closing all doors to a coalition. It is the party that has suffered the most after the June elections for not supporting the government in its battle against the PKK, not giving ministers to the constitutional government and its attitude towards its deputies Tuğrul Türkeş and Meral Akşener. Although these factors decreased the party's vote rates, the MHP relatively recuperated itself after the news of martyrs (thanks to people's nationalistic sensitivities), yet, this hasn't fully helped the party recover its vote rates.



This time around, the MHP might just lose the deputies it achieved from certain cities.



Achieving a surprise rise in its voters during the June 7 elections, the HDP's votes are continuing at a flat rate for now. The AK Party and the CHP not finding strategies to win over the Kurdish votes, the martyrs and the polarization in mega cities are factors helping the HDP preserve its position.



However, the HDP perception is losing its effect since the HDP can't draw a line between itself and the PKK, and the support it has been offering during the terrorist casualties. Using Erdoğan hatred as a boosting power and entering the June 7 elections with this morale, the HDP is now having motivational problems and is in a position to try and keep its vote rates.



By gaining support with its Turkishization efforts, and entering the parliament with 80 representatives, the HDP couldn't make its presence be felt in the parliament. The PKK defeated the HDP.



The biggest mistake that can be done in regards to the HDP, is polarizing politics and targeting the HDP during the election campaigns.



It should be remembered that; when the HDP is targeted, the Kurds tend to gather around this party. Thus, AK Party should take this into consideration and assume a welcoming attitude towards everyone instead of polarizing… Because not one of the parties is entering these elections with a high spirit.





#turkey
#election
#HDP
#AKParty
8 years ago
Codes of the November 1 Elections
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