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Where is the Russian crisis going?

The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) group convened after the Cabinet announcement yesterday.



The center lobby between the hall in which the AK Party group convened and the door through which the ministers entered Parliament was quite active.



It was almost like a Cabinet parade.



Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was the last to arrive. It seemed as though he was relieved of a huge burden with the formation of the government. He has a smile on his face. He sat at the lobby for a while and chat with the deputies. During the government program talks he spoke longer with Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek, who is in charge of the economy.



The government program was being discussed in Parliament, but in the corner of our minds were the developments regarding the downing of the Russian fighter jet.



When President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said “One minute” to Israeli President Shimon Peres in Davos, some appeared on the television saying, “We don't know about Turkey, but Erdoğan is finished.” The same choir took action when we shot down the Russian jet. Such that, one feels like saying, “Who needs Putin when we have Putins among us?” If it were up to our Putins, Russia is going to do what Stalin couldn't do after World War II. This time it is not going to want our straits, Kars and Ardahan. Since its forces are already here, it is going to enter from the Syrian border. There is no such thing. A crisis happened with the downing of the Russian jet.



However, Ankara first showed great effort to prevent the crisis from growing. And since yesterday, the military and diplomatic channels between the two countries have started to work. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu spoke to his Russian counterpart Sergei Larov. Next is President Erdoğan's meeting with Putin. The grounds are being laid for the Erdoğan-Putin meeting. An Erdoğan-Putin meeting is being planned at the Climate Summit to be held in Paris on Monday, Nov. 30. But before that, a telephone conversation between the two leaders is on the agenda. The Erdoğan-Putin meeting is very important in terms of the course of event.



Ankara is pushing the channels of dialogue to gradually reduce the crisis. The initial results of these efforts are starting to be achieved. Primarily, the crisis was prevented from escalating. Now its turn to alleviate the tension in stages.



As for the terror scenario some are trying to spread, the response to this was given by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: “We are not going to wage war against Turkey.”



It is clear that this incident has upset Russia and put a dint in its charisma. But Turkey is not Ukraine, Georgia or Syria. It is a country capable of protecting its own borders. Turkey is not a Banana Republic. President Erdoğan made this very clear when he nonchalantly said, “Nobody should expect us to keep our silence in the face of the violation of our border security.”



Meanwhile, I would like to share the information I obtained regarding how the Russian jet was shot and what sort of mechanism was in place.



With the start of Russia's operation in Syria, a series of meetings were held assessing the new situation under Prime Minister Davutoğlu's chairmanship. Russian fighter jets made persistent violations of Turkish airspace on three occasions on Oct. 3-4 and Oct. 29. You already know that the Russian ambassador was called to the Foreign Ministry and warned. However, upon the violations of Russian fighter jets, a comprehensive meeting was held on Oct. 6 under the Davutoğlu's chairmanship.



In the meeting the political will answered the question, “Will the rules of engagement be applied to every country in the same way?”



Because there was a question mark regarding whether these rules announced upon the downing of our scout plane in Syria is valid for the Syrian regime only or other countries, too, including Russia. I would like to underline that the prime minister said, “The rules of engagement apply to all countries.” But a new mechanism came into place with the start of Russia's operations in Syria. This mechanism is one that is formed by taking into consideration the importance of Turkey-Russia affairs.



We have a United Command and Report Center in Diyarbakır. Here, the area beyond our borders is monitored 24/7 from gigantic electronic maps. According to the 24-hour principle, there is staff monitoring these maps. There are lines on the electronic maps showing the jet approaching 10 miles, 5 miles within our borders. When the Russian fighter jet was 10 miles within our border, these maps alarm an “SOS.” When the 10 miles is exceeded, the United Command and Report Center in Diyarbakır warn the approaching jet. There is a one-minute wait after that. The warning is made to both the jet and at the same time to Russia's Air Control Center.



Normally this warning is made two to three times. But the Russian jet is warned exactly 10 times. As a requirement of the rules of engagement, we can hit it once it approaches 5 miles within our borders. But taking into account our relationship with the Russians, this warning is repeated 10 times. It is not hit in the 5 mile radius. It is intervened when it insists on violating our airspace.



Again, a mechanism specific to the Russians is applied here.



As a requirement of the rules of engagement, when pilots were previously automatically given the command to shoot at the moment the 5 miles are exceeded, a new mechanism is formed when the Russians started operations. This authority is taken from the pilots and given to the Air Forces commander. The mechanism works as follows: The information that reach the United Command and Report Center in Diyarbakır simultaneously reach the “United Air Operations Center” under the Combatant Air Forces and Air Missile Defense Command in Eskişehir. It should be noted that Air Forces Commander Gen. Abidin Ünal was the Combatant Air Forces and Air Missile Defense Commander in Eskişehir before taking his current post. The current air leiutenant general is Mehmet Şanver. On Nov. 24 at around 9:20 a.m., on the day the Russian fighter jet was shot down, Şanver Pasha called Air Forces Command Gen. Abidin Ünal. He says, “Despite warnings the fighter jet is rapidly approaching our border.” Upon evaluation of the data, Gen. Ünal orders to fulfill the requirements of the rules of engagement.



I am underlining it once more. This mechanism is one that is applied based on the importance of our relationship with Russia upon it starting operations in Syria. The order is given not by pilots but by the air forces commander upon warning by the United Air Forces Command in Eskişehir.



While Ankara is taking measures regarding Russia, it is also making great efforts to alleviate the crisis.



Standing tall, without being stubborn…







#Russia
#Turkey
#Syria
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