Merkel's statement and the EU's collapse: What kind of a storm is approaching?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's statement, “We can no longer trust the U.S. and U.K. We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands. The times in which we could fully rely on others are, to a certain extent, over. We have to know that we must fight for our future on our own,” created a shockwave throughout Europe.

The reason Merkel's words were so effective was that a European leader was for the first time speaking so openly, revealing the problem within the West itself in such clear sentences; portraying how far the angle between the U.K.-U.S. partnership and continental Europe had widened. This is the precursor to the collapse of the European Union project and the building of a more core Europe.

Being able to see the approaching storm

For a few months now, I have been trying to draw attention to this matter, to new world trends. I have been saying that there is no longer any such thing as a world system; that the Transatlantic Alliance has lost its power to shape the world order on its own; that the U.S.-Europe balance is ruined; that there are efforts to form a new top structure among a few core countries.

But all of these were quite abstract and silently-shaping developments that could be seen when looked at carefully. For some reason, our intelligentsia, politicians and media breed on noise. Yet, by the time you hear the noise, everything is long over and done with. Skill is being able to watch the silence, the silent tendencies and see the approaching storm.

Establishing a new type of German army

Merkel's words are the declaration of that which is known. Soon, other leaders will also say similar things, showing no hesitation in expressing their countries' wills and the covert war of power in clearer sentences. Because all pursuits aimed at building an international system have collapsed. The United Nations system has collapsed. The European Union project has collapsed. The U.K.'s leaving the EU triggered the union's collapse.

The EU was a German project and the U.K. was to first to strike a blow at it. The blows will continue one after the other. Germany will try to adopt a smaller-scale Europe project in place of the EU. It will try and build a new union with German-axis countries like Austria, Hungary and Croatia. Following the northern countries, southern European countries will also leave the EU, making that project of the Roman Empire become history.

Germany's recently turning towards building its own alliance army under the name of “European army” and increasing its defense expenses is interesting. As Germany readies to establish its own multinational army, German nationalism coming to a boiling point cannot be avoided.

Supranational partnerships will no longer have an effect

A tendency much beyond the conventional top structure projects has come to the forefront. A few “founding countries” are trying some new things. A smaller scale deal outside of the East-West axis, outside of the G7 model is starting to stand out. We do not yet know where this deal that will shape the global power domain will reach, but it is certain that “some new things” are being tried.

Supranational partnerships, multi-participant agreements, strategic partnership relations have expired. Partnerships and top structures like the U.N., NATO, IIT or ASEAR have reached the end of their lifespan. The East-West axis or divergence does not form a sharp line either. Now, a political will, a perspective that wants to be liberated from the heavy burden of the established system and the bulkiness of supranational structures is gaining prominence.

Three leaders stand out as role models

Strangely, values such as democracy and human rights will have no effect on this new tendency. They have been pushed into the background and nobody insists on bringing them back to the forefront. In the new era, power, sources and markets are everything.

Countries will embrace their own historic legacies, identities and national claims rather than alliances. We have entered a very rough and sharp climate in international relations.

Leaders, charismatic personalities, political leaders who do a good job at administrating their own countries and people well will be the antecedent. Their history is going to begin. It is going to be a period in which states, established systems will stand a step behind. This is a period led by leaders such as U.S. President Donald Trump, who is fighting the established order in the U.S., Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Germany's becoming lonely

Merkel made a very intelligent statement and opened the doors to a new era. By giving a message to the U.S.'s established order, she wants Trump to be prevented and hence the era of leaders to end even before it begins. But it can't achieve this. Merkel cannot stop the approaching “loneliness of Germany.”

Trump's America and the U.K. have started a new pursuit. Although, the EU's established system as well as the U.S.'s established system are against this, they are going to have surrender to it a while later. Because this new tendency will be embraced shortly by many countries.

Reason behind the Germany-Turkey fight

The rift between Turkey and Germany, Germany hitting Turkey ahead of the April 16, 2017 referendum in the form of a front, trying to prevent the switch to the “presidential system,” gathering all opposition circles under a single front may all be because of this. The real reason behind the Turkish-German divergence may be this new tendency causing divergence in the EU.

Strange things are happening between the U.S., Germany, Russia and the U.K. Merkel's statements have set light to the fuse of a new fight, a new settlement of scores. Or rather, it has made the settlement of scores taking place more apparent.

How will the new alliances be established? Who will be left alone? What kind of a place will Turkey have in this political climate? In which countries will conjunctural partnerships lead to clashes, to war?

For now, everybody is alone. We will see what follows in time.





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