It is a painful plan. The plans of states are cruel and devoid of feelings. Even in wars and crises in which people die, they ask: “What have we won, what have we lost?” The plans are made according to winners. It is strange, but it’s a political reality.
I do not yet know if our state has asked such a question. Let's try to make a list.
The first loser of the referendum crisis is certainly Masoud Barzani and his Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). He has led the region to deep and widespread chaos because of his obstinacy, ego and shortsightedness. His biggest loss is Turkey, a friend who helped in a time of need.
I think it is time for Barzani to quit politics and administration. Or they might even try to overthrow him.
Another loser of the referendum is Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). They first supported the referendum and boosted the feelings of Kurds. But they began blaming Barzani immediately after the referendum. On top of that, they secretly agreed with the Bagdad government in Kirkuk and delivered Kirkuk to them within four hours. Thus, they resumed the feud with the KDP, strengthening their unreliable image.
From their point of view, they registered themselves in the list of those who won by acting unprincipled. They are right.
Peshmerga, the Kurds' legendary armed forces, had earlier escaped from Mosul without fighting because of the Daesh attack. Now, it is shouting the slogan "Kirkuk is the heart of the Kurds," but it surrendered that heart within four hours without fighting the Iraqi army and Hashdi Shabi. So, it fell from grace.
I do not know if Sivan Perwer will sing for the Peshmerga again. But I am sure that even a street gang will think that it can attack Erbil and seize it from now on.
Barzani served an even unimaginable opportunity to Iran on a silver platter. Since the beginning, Iran wanted to control Kirkuk and Erbil as well as Sulaymaniyah and achieved this. Since the beginning, it wanted enmity between Barzani and Turkey and the end of Turkey’s influence. And this seems likely to happen.
Its biggest project, Hashdi Shabi’s area of influence, spread all over Iraq from the south to the north.
The flow of the Kirkuk oil over its territory and the continuation of the trade from there will be a bonus.
After Talabani's PUK, the Movement for Change (Goran) and the Kurdistan Islamic Society Party (Komel), which are under its control, soon come to power in Erbil, Turkey’s influence here will die. Iran has greatly profited.
Bagdad government and al-Abadi
They are also surprised. The thing they struggled for but could not achieve for many years has been presented to them like a gift. As they hated Barzani and his intimacy with Turkey, they sought to overthrow him. In fact, relations with Turkey were strained to the extent that they came to the brink of a war.
While relations between Turkey and Barzani have been damaged, Ankara-Bagdad relations have been restored. They took control of Kirkuk in four hours, and in front of Turkey. It seemed even if they did not stop in Kirkuk and seized Sinjar, Mahmur, Tel Afar, and eventually Erbil, no one would say anything.
They control all oil and energy centers. What more do they want? All this strengthened the hand of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.
Barzani is the PKK’s biggest enemy in northern Iraq. He pestered them in Qandil and other regions and prevented its expansion. With the weakening of Barzani, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) will be more comfortable in Iraq. This is because Talabani and Goran are its closest friends.
Has Turkey won or lost? It is not yet clear.
It is at loggerheads with Barzani. But if Barzani withdraws from power and the KDP elects a new leader and restores relations with Turkey, Turkey will not be one of the losers.
Turkey will not lose if al-Abadi fulfills his promises in Kirkuk, if Hashdi Shabi does not enter the city, if there is no conflict, if the Turkmen are given the right to speak in administration and if the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık pipeline is not closed.
Turkey will not lose, if the PKK, balanced by Barzani, does not gain power and take root in Sinjar and Qandil, and if Bagdad and Iran fulfill their promises.
Turkey will not lose if Talabani-Goran-Komel does not come to power.
Turkey will not lose if Bashiqa and the other six military bases are not closed.
As it can be seen, Turkey being victorius depends on the fulfilment of promises by Iran, our biggest enemy in the region, and Bagdad!
If the U.S. is satisfied with Barzani’s loss of power and an Iran-controlled Talabani, Goran, Komel and Bagdad administration’s gain of power, it is a winner. I think the U.S. is confused.
If they think they can act in Syria's north and Iraq's north despite Iran, Russia, Turkey and Baghdad, then put them on the winners' list. But it seems unlikely.
If Israel is going to establish a similar state of itself in Syria, but makes it seem to be in northern Iraq, it is a winner. But Israel is also surprised that Iran has gained so much power in northern Iraq.
In which clubs Turkey, the U.S. and Israel will be depends on future developments.
