In August, a report came out that appeared aligned with the official Nigerian narrative that says Boko Haram militants have been "technically defeated" in most parts of Nigeria's northeast region.
But developments in the region in the past few weeks now appear to suggest otherwise as reports emerged of militants ambushing government troops. Some have alleged a few of those reports have been promoted by the opposition for political capital.
Cited are the attacks last week in the towns of Gudumbali and Damasak, the bombing of Alau Dam which supplies water to the Borno capital Maiduguri, as well as repeated attacks in the neighboring Yobe State, or raids on different communities on the fringe of Lake Chad.
“These attacks [...] show that they are very much resilient and bent on proving that their forces have not been routed,” added Fred Onuoha, a security analyst and professor at the political science department at the University of Nigeria in Nsukka.
Apart from the seasonal rains that make the roads inaccessible to troops while militants hit remote communities, Onuoha said there are other factors to consider for the surge.
Troop fatigue has also been fingered for the recent surge in Boko Haram attacks.
Militants may also be targeting military installations to access weapons and this could mean that Daesh is planning a major attack and possible territorial raid on one or two towns in rural Borno, Ryan Cummings, a pan-African security analyst based in Johannesburg, told Anadolu Agency.
He said the redeployment of Nigerian and regional military assets to other flash points may also explain the surge.
Said this should involve identifying potential new strengths of the Boko Haram factions in the area of funding streams, weapons upgrade and acquisition, membership strength and recruitment drive, and operational and attack patterns.
Onuoha called for heavy investments on air assets as veritable force multiplier for sustained intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, rapid close air support for ground troops in situation of surprised attacks, and for precision pursuit and neutralizing of Boko Haram camps and highly mobile fighters.
“There must be comprehensive revaluation of the psychological state of troops, especially the SOFs, to ascertain readiness posture and addressing trauma or fatigue. This would inform the kind of treatment needed and nature of measured redeployment,” said security analyst Onuoha.
“And there is equally the need for troop surge, if not saturation, in the northeast to conduct coordinated all-season offensive operations against the factions of Boko Haram.”