All roads lead to early elections

It's now certain.

Turkey is going for early elections.

MHP member Semih Yalçın announced that they will support the AK Party minority government with the condition of early elections.

MHP Vice Chairman pointed at November as the date.

He said, “If all the coalition alternatives are used up, we can support a minority government with the condition of conducting early elections. MHP will lean towards November.”

Later on, stating that his words had been warped, Semih Yalçın made a new declaration.

“It's unthinkable for our party to approach any 'minority government' positively.”

It's better to be cautious before Devlet Bahçeli has his final say. Thus, neither Semih Yalçın's first statement nor the one after that can be taken as a correction or reference.

However, it was MHP Chairman Bahçeli who first suggested early elections to be held on November 15th. Thus, Semih Yalçın's first statement is not conflicting with Bahçeli.

After his meeting with the MYK (Central Executive Board) members and parliamentarians, Bahçeli stated, “We can expect elections on November 15th or after that.” However, the MHP Chairman underlined the “Early election” possibility in his statement after the election night, and said, “At any time, early elections might be realized.”

We should pay attention to Bahçeli's early election proposals.

If you can remember; while the DSP-ANAP-MHP coalition government was on duty, on July 8, 2002, Devlet Bahçeli made a surprise call during the Kocayayla Turkmen Congress, which was held in Bursa's Keles County, and suggested to head for elections on November 3, 2002.

That day, Bahçeli made the following statement; “Then, let's call TBMM to an extraordinary meeting on September 1st, make the decision for early elections on September 3rd, and let's designate the election date, within the 60-day election schedule, as November 3rd.”

Bahçeli didn't only end the coalition with his statement, he also closed an era.

While AK Party becomes a single rulership in the elections held on November 3rd, old parties are forced to withdraw from the political scene.

Bahçeli's early election rebuke had opened to doors for AK Party's 13 years of single rulership.

There were two dates related with the early elections.

1-April or May 2016

2-November 15, 2015

Both dates have justifications of their own.

The Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu factor was one of the reasons for the elections to be held in April or May 2016.

He lost his life after his helicopter crashed at Çağlayancerit in Kahramanmaraş on March 25th, before the local elections on March 29, 2009.

On top of that, AK Party, who received a warning from the citizens in the June 7th elections, needed time in order to “do their homework” before asking for the voters' votes again.

The strongest objection to “April or May 2016” election date was presented by economy circles.

In 2014, Turkey experienced two elections; local and Presidential elections. Thus, 2014 has been a lost year. While the first half of 2015 had passed with election campaigns, the second half is passing with government pursuits. If there are elections in 2016 again, economy circles are mentioning that 2015 and 2016 will be lost.

As for the November 2015 date; it's being kept on the agenda as the most possible election possibility, if nothing comes out of the coalition pursuits.

It's almost certain now that no positive result will come for the coalition negotiations between AK Party and CHP. Committees have completed their works. Leaders are given the final say. They will come together sometime this week. I've spoken to CHP. They were experiencing a great disappointment. They were like; “If the Prime Minister demands, we will negotiate. However, if we can't get a result, what's the point?”

Rather than establishing the government, the agenda is set on who will be the one to topple the table. Because, during the recent meeting, deep divergences were revealed.

As for AK Party, coalition pursuits and early elections came into prominence. AK Party – MHP or AK Party – CHP coalition possibilities are not completely taken off the agenda; however, the willpower is directed at early elections.

CHP always kept the door open for a coalition with AK Party.

It's known that President Erdoğan has wanted “early elections” since the night of June 7th.

Then, will the new elections open the doors for AK Party's single rulership again?

AK Party doesn't want to risk its future by forming a coalition with CHP in order to provide 18 Parliamentarians that is necessary to complete the government. Aren't politics a risk, after all? They want to take the risk of early elections, rather than coalition risk, and let the nation decide. The “If we go for early elections, we can become a single rulership” idea is dominant. The public survey, which is expected to have results this week, will give us an idea. AK Party wants to make a second survey to see ahead of them more clearly.

As long as HDP exceeds the threshold and enters the Parliament, AK Party needs 45% of the votes in order to become the single rulership. Despite the recent operations, HDP is preserving its position above the threshold. A maximum of 1 point loss is the point in question. The Kurdish votes, which were directed from AK Party, are still with HDP. It's enough for HDP to exceed the threshold. A regression in the MHP and Saadet Party front is attracting attention. Since the election night, June 7th, there has been a two point increase in AK Party. However, will it be enough to become the single rulership?

It's not clear to whether AK Party will become the single rulership following the early elections. However, they want to try.

In order to make an evaluation related with the election results, we need to observe the conjuncture where the decision for early elections is taken. At the beginning of 2015, would you have thought that June 7th elections will result with the coalition option? Thus, it's not possible to guess the results of the early elections without seeing “under what conditions” Turkey is heading towards elections.

The present point reached is not encouraging for a coalition.

Like the saying, “All roads lead to Rome”, all the roads in Ankara are leading to “Early elections”.

#snap election
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