The formula in the President's mind

In our article entitled “How many Ministries will be given to HDP” on July 9th, we said that “there is also another possibility”. That possibility was the one mentioned by President Erdoğan, while he was flying from China to Indonesia. The President previously said that a minority government will not be a solution, and that a strong government is necessary. When he was reminded of these words, he said, “What I'm against is a permanent minority government. A minority government is possible on the condition that it will lead the government to elections. A minority government, which will be formed by the outer-support given by party or parties to the party in power, can lead the country to elections”.

Following this answer, it became clear that President Erdoğan wants “re-elections”. Up to this point, the happenings are not a secret. We all knew that the President wanted re-elections since June 7th.

Even the lobbies echoed”+ with evaluations like; Prime Minister Davutoğlu wants a coalition, while the President is sided with re-elections.

The President was on the side of forcing the “re-elections”; however, how would that be possible? Of course, there could have been a coalition government, which would be formed with the condition of early elections, or if no government was to be formed within 45 days, an election government, where the parties are represented according to their parliamentarian numbers, could have been formed.

The information that “there is another possibility”, which we received from the lobbies, is directly related with this matter.

Erdoğan called out to party leaders, saying, “Leave your egos aside.” He underlined that Turkey needs a strong government.

However, on the other hand, he is occupied with paving the road that will lead Turkey to “re-elections”. For example, in the first round of negotiations between Davutoğlu's and Kılıçdaroğlu's committees, a possibility of a coalition government between AK Party and CHP presented itself. After all, both committees are working in the light of observations from that meeting. The Davutoğlu-Kılıçdaroğlu meeting was conducted on July 13th, Monday. Following the meeting, there were hopes of a coalition between two parties.

President Erdoğan said, “If they touch big projects like this, they will find me against them.” During his HDP visit, Selahattin Demirtaş told Davutoğlu, “If you cannot establish a government, don't take the decision for re-elections quickly; first visit the leaders again,” and had given the signals for a minority government. The President targeted HDP on the morning of the religious holiday, and said, “An agreement with the people, who are leaning on a separatist terror organization, is unthinkable.”

Erdoğan had a strategy since the beginning. Since the morning of June 8th, he had taken moves towards realizing that strategy. First, he took steps towards removing himself from being a target. His meetings with CHP member Deniz Baykal and HDP member Celal Doğan, and his compliments to Bahçeli during his admission for TBMM Presidency Council members were moves directed at this objective. They were also effective partially. Besides, when the coalition possibility or HDP-supported minority government formulas were on the agenda, he made statements directed at removing that platform. He narrowed the field for formulas other than re-elections. The President has been reminding us that if a strong government cannot be established, we might all head towards re-elections. The President, who is approaching the coalition governments with discountenance, is also not steering towards an election government; because, the idea is to hand 4 Ministries to HDP in the election government that will be formed due to the laws. The expected Ministry distribution in the election government, is; 11 to AK Party, 6 to CHP, 4 to MHP and 4 to HDP.

If CHP is given 7 ministries, then MHP will have 4 and HDP will have 3 ministries.

Today, the agenda is the removal of immunities or to shut down parties. Before you know it, HDP, who is in the center of arguments like the political expansion of PKK, might take place in the Ministerial Committee as a partner of the government.

Minister of Defense, Selahattin Demirtaş and Minister of Interior, Yüksekdağ.

As for the model in President Erdoğan's mind.

Since MHP leader Bahçeli shot the doors for government formulas, which will be supported inside or outside by HDP. MHP announced that they are disregarding HDP, and said, “That side of the Parliament is blurry.”

He did as he said in the Parliament Speakership elections, and in order not to be seen intimate with HDP, the MHP candidate voted for himself.

Bahçeli knows the sensibility of HDP. The incoming martyr funerals and operations directed at PKK increased this sensibility a thousand times. In this case, Bahçeli is expected to pave the way for an AK Party minority government formula, with the condition of elections, in order to avoid making HDP a member of the election. Please pay attention; I'm not talking about his support. Bahçeli only needs to pave the way and avoid preventing.

How will that be possible following Devlet Bahçeli's “Why would we support a minority government” words? In order for the minority government, which will be formed by AK Party, to receive the vote of confidence, they don't need 276 parliamentarians. The 276 number is the amount that should be sought after in order to overthrow the government. If AK Party forms a minority government, it's sufficient if MHP doesn't participate in the voting for the vote of confidence.

In this case, MHP won't be going against their “First, my country, then, my party” principle and, HDP will be prevented from becoming a government partner. Two birds will be struck with one stone. Thus, AK Party will lead Turkey to re-elections by forming a minority government based on the election calendar.

Meanwhile, if an agreement is reached, the election threshold will be lowered and new regulations, which are necessary for the newly elected parliamentarians to receive the right for retirement despite not completing 2 years, will be conducted.

This is the formula in President Erdoğan's mind.

Let's see how this will be reflected on the field.

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