Is the US and EU's troubled marriage coming to an end?

The cracks in the marriage between the US and Europe became evident as early as Trump’s first term. When Joe Biden won the 2020 election, it kept the two sides from walking out on each other. Some believed that this marriage was bound by a Catholic vow—no matter how bad things got, divorce was not an option.

But with Trump’s return, many now believe the marriage won’t last. US Vice President JD Vance made that clear at the Munich Security Conference, openly stating that the worldviews and lifestyles keeping the couple together are fundamentally at odds. Speaking in terms Europeans would understand, he essentially said that a couple who no longer shares the same values cannot be forced to live under the same roof.

Vance’s words implied that the US is ready to take back its dowry and stop spending to sustain this marriage. Europe, he suggested, should start preparing to live without America. If the separation happens, Europe will no longer be under US protection—it will have to fend for itself in a dangerous forest.

The Europe Trump is taking aim at is “United Europe,” “Liberal Europe,” or “Globalist Europe.” He wants to restructure the European pillar of the American establishment. According to this vision, first, the EU must weaken, and then a new, non-liberal Europe can be built. Trump’s camp enthusiastically supported Brexit, and they see Europe’s rising far-right parties as the weak links in the EU chain. Strong ties have formed between Trumpian conservatives and these parties. The political and media figures of “White America” and “White Europe” share a common goal: a racially pure “White West.”

That’s why, when JD Vance spoke of the values gap between America and the EU, he sent a warm message to the European far-right. His core message in Munich was clear: as long as values continue to diverge, the US-EU partnership cannot hold.

One common denominator among these “White West” parties is their virulent opposition to immigration, which they claim is altering Europe’s white Christian identity. Vance, like many on the American far-right, argues that the real threat to Europe comes from within—liberal, globalist elites and institutions. In the US, white supremacists use the same rhetoric, claiming that internal enemies are pushing immigration policies that will politically and culturally destroy White America.

The so-called liberal, rules-based international order—where the US reigned supreme—is unraveling. The rise of “White West” parties is a symptom of this. The economic rise of non-Western countries is striking fear into the architects of the Western-centric global system. As long as the spoils of globalization flowed disproportionately to the West, everything was fine. But now that the flow is shifting, the US is feeling the pressure.

In 1945, the US accounted for 50% of global GDP. Today, it’s about 25%. The US remains the world’s largest economy, but China—currently in second place—is projected to overtake it. Adding to US anxieties is China’s expanding military capacity, which fuels American fears of a rising Beijing.

The “center” is fracturing, and in the swirling chaos, the hawk no longer hears the falconer’s call. The US, however, is unwilling to relinquish its role as global hegemon. Trump believes America can make up for its economic losses through force—by taking a more extortionist approach. His comments about acquiring Greenland, controlling the Panama Canal, pressuring Canada, or intervening in Gaza all fit into this mindset. He has also demanded that Ukraine hand over its rare mineral resources in exchange for US aid. In Trump’s view, the era of “burden-sharing” is over—it’s time for America to shift the load onto others.

Vance’s Munich speech was like a tactical nuclear strike on the Atlantic Alliance. “Liberal Europe” is in shock, uncertain how to handle Trump. With every move, he swings a blazing sword at the so-called liberal, rules-based world order. The “forest” is growing, and how the world will respond remains unclear.

Meanwhile, let’s not forget: the Western world sacrificed the rights of Palestinians to protect Israel, turning them into pariahs in their own homeland. By allowing Israel to go unpunished for its actions, the so-called liberal international order has already revealed its true face.