Americans are going to vote in the congressional elections in a divided atmosphere. Both sides are quite polarized, and they have very strong motivations. One-third of the seats in the Senate and the entire House of Representatives will be revamped. The Republicans are already controlling both wings of the Congress. The polls are suggesting that the Democrats will get the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives. However, a major change is not expected within the Senate.
The pipe bombs sent to the Democrats, the attack on a synagogue that killed 11 Jews, the attack that killed two black Americans and the tension created by these attacks: this is the environment in which we are heading to elections. The conservative Catholics have become more dominant in the Supreme Court of the U.S. with the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh as Associate Justice, who was alleged to be involved in sexual assault. This development further motivates the women’s movement and the liberal electors. The mass killings, on the other hand, are further motivating the circles who demand the limitation of the individual right to bear arms. The Republicans, however, are against the limitation of the right to bear arms because they see it as a “citizenship right.” That is why arms lobbies have spent more money on the Republicans.
The coal and oil lobbies that benefited from Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the “Paris Climate Agreement” want to retain their gains. These lobbies are backing Trump as well. The additional retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on the U.S. did more harm to farmers in rural areas who generally vote for the Republicans. This is such an important development that, Vice President of the U.S. Mike Pence defined the Chinese tariffs as meddling in the elections against Trump.
The mainstream “white, evangelical, Christian” electors mostly vote for the Republicans. The “Christian-Zionist” wing among the evangelicals who see themselves as “allies of Israel” are hardline Trump supporters. The Christian-Zionists see Trump as a leader who has assumed a “divine mission,” and that is why they ignore his immoral actions, which also contradict with evangelical teachings. Among other far-right groups, the most enthusiastic supporters of Trump, are these Christian-Zionists whose numbers are said to be around 15 million.
The rise of the “white supremacists” in the U.S. along with the violent attacks are worrying Hispanics and those of African and “Asian origin. These three groups mostly vote for the Democrats. Research indicates that white Americans will lose their majority within 50 years. These predictions indicate a chain of events that are coming, which those who designed the country as “white America” need to prevent. This is the motivation that lies behind Trump’s strict immigration policies. A Republican member of the House of Representatives Steve King’s support of white supremacist Faith Goldy for the Toronto governorship in Canada was subjected to criticisms even within his own party. King’s praises to the far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders who made fame with his anti-Islamic stance, and also his close relations with the Freedom Party of Austria which was established by a former Nazi officer are recently being debated. Not to mention Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton’s praises to the white supremacist Jair Bolsonaro who was recently elected as president in Brazil.
Another topic is the demand for “Healthcare Insurance for Everyone” by the Democrats, especially from the “Socialist Democrat” wings of the party. Trump, on the other hand, even wants to abolish Obama’s regulation which brings partial improvements. The elderly in the U.S. trust the Democrats more when it comes to the healthcare system. It is also expected that the new generation identified as millennials will participate more in the elections. This generation seems to be mostly supporting the Democrats.
There are many topics, especially Trump’s foreign policy, that will make an impact on the outcome of the elections. The Americans will determine the color of Congress regarding all these matters. The outcome of these elections will also be a lever for the presidential elections in 2020.