This year Ramadan Bayram has coincided with the political calendar. Ramadan Bayram 2014 is pointing towards the start of a new era while another ends.
Without a doubt, Turkey is passing through a new "political phase".
AK Party had been in rulership for 12 years and the current equilibriums are showing that this situation will continue until 2019. We are talking about some kind of a "de facto ruler party" and, without a doubt; the most important carrier of the ruler system from AK Party"s point is Tayyip Erdogan. In this case, it means that we are talking about the transferring of political captainship to Çankaya along with Tayyip Erdogan.
The results, which spring from Erdogan"s escalation to Çankaya and the public electing him, bear great importance on the country"s equilibriums in the corporate and political arenas.
From the point of corporate, the table is as follows:
"With Tayyip Erdogan"s occupancy in Çankaya, the bankruptcy of the September 12th Constitution, which started in 2007, will be completed, and especially the state – politics difference principle, which is expected to be represented by the presidential office, will be collapsed completely.
After the 2007 crisis, despite all the preventative attempts of state actors, Abdullah Gül had stepped up to Çankaya. He was the last president that represented the interlude and transition. Along with being one of the founders of AK Party, he wasn"t the number one man of the party and he was elected by the council. As for now, AK Party"s leader will be elected to the presidential position by the public.
As for the political results of this:
In the new period, other than the foresight of the constitution, the appearance of a unity condition between the state – politics mechanism is unavoidable. Presidency will advance to being an office, which directs the politics, rather than being an office, which shapes the state texture in the name of the state and inspects the politics.
Inevitably, the present constitution is not giving executive authority to the president. Consequently, it hasn"t predicted a political responsibility to this in terms of the authorities it can use. The president"s authorities that in the forefront are; confirming legislations or the veto authority and the ones related with political, juridical and bureaucratic assignments…
The critical questions – which we don"t know the answers to – are; after he becomes president, how Tayyip Erdogan will shape his relations with the government, and especially with the Prime Minister outside these authorities, how he will actualized this without coming close to violation borders,
And also the questions of the transition, which we had underlined above…
This transition carries a tremendous amount of importance in the sense of Turkey"s consistency and the regime"s institutional future.
From the perspective of AK Party, the expectation and project is obvious:
Reaching a constitutional majority in the 2015 General Elections, which will follow the August presidential elections, or to reach the 330 representative number that will at least lead to taking the presidential system to a referendum.
As for this, the political rulership is facing a dilemma.
This dilemma is knotted with the question related to who will carry AK Party in the squares during the 2015 General Elections.
It"s inevitable that the carrier will be the next chairman of the party and the Prime Minister.
The constitutional majority or 330 representative objective requires a leader and a strong square man after Tayyip Erdogan. We can also assume that, such a name will also correspond to a strong Prime Minister model at the same time. Such a situation amounts to Erdogan sharing the rulership. Then, will this be desired by Erdogan, or be regarded as an ideal administration model?
This is an important and unanswered question.
Related with this, the question of who will be in the driver"s seat of the party is also important.
While Abdullah Gül"s possible arrival to the party"s chairman position and then to the government"s lead is reflecting a more sharer-oriented institutional transition, a younger name from AK Party"s youth will be symbolizing possibly the contrary of this and a more Erdogan- centered structuring. Who will come to the leading position of AK Party is a question, which AK Party surroundings are mostly dwelling upon from the point of party"s politics, a matter that they are most sensitive to.
In the coming days, it"s clear that the politics will be shaped over this question and pursuit.