Russia- Assad cooperation and its results - ALI BAYRAMOĞLU

Russia- Assad cooperation and its results

The region is burning like hellfire. But the direction of the wind is not in favor of Turkey. There are three topics arising from the Syrian territories Turkey has been accepting as threat for a long time.

The first one is the existence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its actions. The things that this organization could do have been seen in the Diyarbakır, Suruç, Ankara and Paris attacks. ISIL supporters have already started to settle down and become organized in cities such as Adıyaman and Gaziantep in Turkey.

The Salafi winds to which Turkey is generally closed off are now blowing strong. Tracking down those who come from around the world, particularly from Western countries to join ISIL is a serious burden and responsibility on the shoulders of Ankara.

ISIL has been controlling the 90-kilometer border on the other side of Kilis.

The crossings are generally from this region. Despite the insistences of Turkey, in an incomprehensive way the allied forces are not confirming and supporting the establishment of a safe zone there.

A second issue considered a threat by Turkey is the seizing of the northern border of Syria by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the intention of Kurds to cross to the west of the Euphrates and unite Afrin and Tal Abyad.

This situation and the outlawed PKK that will cause the dominance of the PYD-PKK throughout the Turkish border is evaluated as the core of the state.

The third threat is refugee-related, more truly about a new wave of refugees.

The northwest of Syria where the population is concentrated, the area around Aleppo, Haseke-Marae line that is just opposite Kilis, from this aspect has critical importance for Turkey.

Turkey has been in close cooperation with the international coalition for ISIL's not crossing this line.

ISIL's crossing this line means opening the door to 4 million people and a new refugee wave which Turkey cannot possibly handle.

Recently this third threat has been spreading in another way with two arms.

Russia's bombing the Turkmen region, Bayırbucak which is in the west of the Hasake-Marae line could be a multi-possible result of Assad's effort to seize the dominance of the Turkmen region.

The first possible result is a new refugee wave whose signals are already showing.

The second possibility is the Turkmens being pushed back, being forced to migrate and the PYD, which has recently been in cooperation with Assad from time to time, moving and settled into this region.

The third one is, repelling the Turkmens in the south of Hatay, the Assad regime's looking to dominate this area before the cease-fire negotiations, which are predicted to start on Jan. 1, 2016.

In the guise of Russia's struggle against ISIL directly targeting Assad's opponents, acting as Assad's air forces, has doubled the threat against Turkey.

It is almost like a world war in the Middle East with focus on Syria. Russia, Iran, the U.S., U.K. and France are directly involved in this war. They are being targeted by ISIL.

Iran has been maintaining its Shiite dominance area policy over this war.

The effort of Russia to go back to its old days has been reflected out by arbitrarily supporting Iran, which it has been an ally for a long time in this war and Assad who could not exist without Iran.

Many Kurd, Turk, Arab, Shiite and Sunni energies have emerged in this war. Ethnic tissues, religious conflicts point out the possibility of drawing the borders again at the end of the big powers' search for dominance.

But it is certain that this will take years.

They are all elements which are separately related with Turkey and will affect the balances…

There is not only a war next to us, this or that way Turkey is in that war…

The issue is not only related with Turkey's political choices and the essence of the national benefits, each time the opposite tendencies in Syria clash with each other, it has serious reflections on Turkey which is left all alone on the refugee issue…

In order to endure this war and concussions there is a need for patience and wisdom.



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