There are two great regional problems, which interests Turkey and will leave a mark on the Middle East in every sense during the forthcoming years.
The first one is the “Sunni politics”.
This issue, which presented itself with the Arab Spring, is pointing at the new acceleration of a “community-politics relation” in a Sunni field that extends from North Africa to our southern borders.
Within this frame, the political regime formats in the region is changing, or at least, is shaking or evolving. While the communal energy, which had been kept under pressure, is coming out, new contacts are being experienced between politics and religion via the Islamic quality of this energy. The new political formats, that these contacts include, and the differentiations and conflicts between these are being revealed.
The absolutist regimes, which are ruling in the Gulf, the Salafi movements like El Nusra and ISIL, the differentiation between others like Hamas-İhvan, who can turn into pluralism moderately and potentially, even the conflict, and the “benefit bet” that powers outside of the region are playing over these differentiations, are the concrete statements of this development.
All these are pointing at a line that will become an indicator from today to tomorrow.
The “Which format, with which equilibriums, which political format will take place where, how will these affect the political power balances, their own political circles, and Islamic movements” questions will appear and it is crucial for strategic thinking.
The second on is the “Kurdish problem”.
The Kurds, who had been divided into four countries, are advancing extremely fast in a political sense at the countries they are based in and the international field they had formed.
Barzani’s autonomous Kurdistan administration had reached the phase of declaring independence.
In Turkey, the communal legitimacy of the Kurdish policy is withering, along with the Kurdish existence (also alongside the peace process). Syrian Kurds had formed an autonomous department at Rojawa despite the issues they are facing. Despite the rivalry between Kurdish groups (PKK/PYD against Barzani), the indicator factor is the communal and political energy that is spreading at the fields controlled by these groups and the contacts between those fields.
The effect of ISIL’s attack on Kobane, like lessening the present distances and creating a common awareness, is an example to that. Time will give the answer to the “Will the first half of the 21
Century be a stage for Kurdish union or for the different Kurdish groups’ becoming autonomous within the democratic systems in the place they live” question.
However, one thing is clear: The century in the Middle Easy will be a Kurdish century.
A good and effective foreign policy and strategy requires being able to see these, being prepared, direct, and even taking precautions.
An even better and effective foreign policy requires building bridges between the approaches to these two issues and making preparations accordingly.
Turkey had taken a right attitude, at least in an historical sense, towards the Arab Spring and Sunni politics matter (despite some tactical errors, expression excesses, and lack of prediction). The support it had given to moderate movements that has the potential for pluralism, the distance it puts against monolithic and patronizing politics, are more valuable and important than the politics.
We hope that history will also stream in this direction.
When the matter is the Kurdish policy, despite all the positive steps and brave resolution process, Turkey is making an historical mistake with its “Prevention of the formation of international Kurdish fields”, “Isolating its own Kurdish problem and hoping to vaporize this problem within Turkey” policies.
This mistake, as I had said before, is the fact that it is following “The attitude, which is completely the opposite of using this region as a natural political cushion or integrating it to the resolution process, of Turkey, which should know that Rojawa is PKK activity field and a part of the Kurdish people living in Turkey”.
Pluralism, comprehensiveness and democratic umbrella should be the main policy of Turkey, sternly to the flow of history.
If the two historical issues of the region can be handled around the “political virtue, pluralism and democratic politics” trio, and it is seen that this is the main direction of the national profit, then there will be a 21
Century reality in Turkey.
