We are passing through a demanding period. Some unresolved issues like the Kurdish issue, are including aspects that can occlude the system despite Turkish politics' revanchist traditions and the pluralist representation display.
As you know, there are four parties in the parliament and Davutoğlu has just embarked on his coalition tours.
Actually, there are many cooperation and coalition possibilities between these parties. However, today, the existing political conditions and attitudes are keeping the door open only for a coalition possibility between AK Party and CHP.
Even this display is pointing at the depth and quality of the political disintegration and divisions in Turkey. We have been underlining this since the first day; 160 of the 550 parliamentarians in the parliament are formed of two opposite and extreme parties' parliamentarians. The Kurdish issue centered HDP, which doesn't want other political parties to establish a bond with the country's administration, and MHP, who is recently receiving all its power from objecting to the resolution process and which is a Turkish nationalist party that talks over and has an uncompromising stance, are forming 30% of the parliamentarians in the parliament. This display is reminding us of the possible blockages from the point of the process of the parliament in the next period, rather than only in the sense of coalition formulas.
We are at a critical curve…
AK Party and CHP will form a coalition or Turkey will go to elections…
Let's start from the end…
What will happen if there is no reconciliation and if we go to elections?
In this case, either there will be the same vote distributions and the result, or, with the pressure of the stability factor, AK Party will become the single rulership. Having the same result in re-elections, will be the worst possible scenario for Turkey. Because, if the existing political balances and cultural data are taken into consideration, this situation will either cause an “ungovernable Turkey” panic or produce coalitions like AK Party-MHP, that are fragile, based on conflicts and formed unwillingly. In other words, disturbance and indirect instability will enter our lives.
AK Party's rise to single rulership in possible re-elections will remove the instability risk in the short run and designate the old balances to a certain extent. However, only to a certain extent… Because, if this possible result is actualized, it will be accepted as a great success by AK Party. This perception might cause a risk (while being an inevitable result) to cover all the warnings, like “returning to defaults” – “institutionalization” – “paying attention to pluralistic democracy”, directed at the political party by the voters.
Then, rather than a political flow, where bridges between different segments will be formed and which will be designated by the interaction between different political parties, the system of a couple years, where even the bridge necessity will be designated by a single power and where we will hope for the conscience of the dominant power in political decisions again, will continue. After a while, this system will fail to carry itself and collapse in the first elections. This time, in real terms, a melting period for AK Party, and a direct instability era for the system will start. As another possibility; in the case AK Party becomes the single rulership again, they will return, and, while comprehending all the warnings directed at them, they will be giving direction to their expressions and policies in accordance to those warnings. In other words, it's the opening of the doors to pay attention to institutionalization, pluralization and different requests. However, we know that no system, settled power or actor will compromise, unless they are forced in the sense of rivalry and democratic politics, and proceed by accepting the formed balances as data.
Now, let's return to the beginning; the present time…
Even the reasoning above is showing us how critical and important Davutoğlu's negotiation tours, which he started yesterday, are for the country and future.
The system is required to protect the democratic gains in the last couple of year. In some aspects, the system needs revisions. A new institutionalization is necessary.
All of these necessitate “different political understandings” to compromise and cooperate at least for a while. AK Party's restructuring in the new period and recovering themselves, AK Party's inclusion to CHP's administration system and responsibility, continuity of the resolution process… Economic stability requires such transition.
The conditions are suitable…
For example, since the elections, President Erdoğan is not entering any political field in any condition.
The matter here is forming a coalition spirit that will reduce the tensions with honesty.