aliI am analyzing this matter, like always, as a requirement of our expertise, from three perspectives:
1. Political communication aspect
2. Realpolitik context
3. Principle of being result-oriented
First, the perceived view seen (shown) in terms of political communication is, in summary, that there are four opposition groups divided into four among themselves, with four candidates for leadership. They all have a single objective: To oust Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahçeli, who they claim to be unsuccessful. Hence, they want to organize a “dominant general assembly” by collecting signatures without having to wait for the ordinary general assembly. The matter goes to court. The first round of the court war is won by Mr. Bahçeli.
Secondly, collecting signatures to organize a general assembly in terms of realpolitik is neither appreciated nor approved in our value system. Moderation is essential. “You wait for the general assembly in decency. Then settle accounts there.” The common mind and public conscience (inspired by Hollywood movies and history books) works this way: We have a government that favors an organized military and peace and harmony and on the other hand there is the “group of rebels” trying to topple them. In the latest incident, a “Gülenist” perception has been attached to this group of rebels and the group that is taking no action (also leading to disagreements among the group) in the communication aspect to clear itself of such a perception, may go into history as a movement supported by Pennsylvania.
Thirdly, the MHP is a leader's party. It is not a cadre party. Also, the political parties law in Turkey was installed to ensure that leaders remain as leaders. Especially parties like the MHP overcome attempts that may be perceived as coups in their militant ways, making their leaders stronger. In other words, unless there is a development to garner the support of the auto-dynamic party base, a leadership change in the MHP is almost impossible.
As for the Bahçeli side of the matter… We totally agree with a tweet posted by our old friend, Dr. İbrahim Uslu, the general manager of research company Anar: “Even if Bahçeli manages to protect his chair through court decisions, he cannot maintain the party's integrity. The crisis must be overcome through intraparty democracy and extensive consultation.”
Let us underline once more an opinion we frequently state. The opposition becoming so weak in democracies is not at all healthy for the ruling party. Nothing with a weak opposite can ever become stronger, on the contrary, it will begin to produce its opposite within (see thinkers, philosophers, logicians of the ancient Greek and Islamic worlds). This situation may first lead to bureaucratic oligarchy and then directly inflict serious harm to the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
Prime minister betters will be disappointed
Who is going to be the AK Party's new prime minister and chairman on Sunday?
Anyone who knows President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan even slightly will not get involved in betting on a prime minister. They will not try to make guesses. One of the most important attributes of leadership is present in the president beyond measure. He never acts in the ordinary, in a way that will occur to anybody. Even his wife, Emine Erdoğan, stated that she does not know about most of his decisions.
Let us recall when Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's name first emerged. In what position was his name in the prime minister betting game?
It is no different this time. The party's tendency survey commenced yesterday. Provincial chairmen and mayors and members of party board, primarily the Central Decision and Executive Board (MKYK), are going to be consulted. Almost 800 people are expected to participate in the surveys. A 10-member supreme board consisting of staff is going to analyze the responses received to determine the possible candidates. The final consultation is going to be held with Erdoğan and the “new prime minister” is going to be announced either Thursday or Friday.
As a natural result of this flow, they are also going to nominate the person in the first position on that list, too, are they not?
Nobody can make me believe this. The phrase on the bookmark of our book titled “Algılama Yönetimi” (Perception Management), which was first published in 2005 and has been printed seven times to date, applies to leaders like the president:
“It is certainly impossible to produce different and new things by abiding by the desires of the majority.”
I shall just say that those who are betting on who will be chosen prime minister are going to be mistaken once again. It is best to see the big picture and try to keep yourself from presenting your guess like it is your idea.