The mission and “Pocket economy…”

I wanted to narrate three different quotes from Yeni Safak Editor-In-Chief İbrahim Karagül's column from March 25. We believe that it would be beneficial to read the piece as a whole under the scope of noting it down for history. Let's have a brief look at these three excerpts:

“We know that the AK Party is not only a political party, but a political understanding and a political movement, as well. We also know that its sole goal is not to become the ruling party, but is rather re-formatting Turkey in accordance with the global conditions of the 21st century, transforming and normalizing it.”

“The AK Party will not lose strength by inner debates. On the contrary, it would renew itself and keep the dynamism alive. Of course this does not mean that abrasive debates should be seen as normal. The damages caused by those who cannot tolerate this historical mission and those who turn it into personal calculations, and those who run after political or economic interests is evident.”

“You see, we support this mission. The thing that we support and at times side with, is not a political party in the strict sense, but rather a political movement, and represents the great walk, transformation and reshaping of Turkey in line with conditions of the 21st century; the desire for a strong Turkey. We are aware of the shallowness of the criticism directed against us for our position.”

With only little time left for the elections, it is obvious that the attacks against the AK Party and the balance within the country will likely increase in its scope and intensity… The only power that will stop the plan to pull the AK Party and the government into “desperation” through the increase in tensions is the “National Will” and the AK Party itself, which consistently repeats that its existence is solely based on the national will…

Well then, what is the inclination of the society and public conscience that will eventually determine the electorate's attitudes and make up the abstract concept called national will?

Based on our discussions with senior managers from research companies, which we believed to be reliable, we came up with the following conclusions:

Looking at AK Party's voting results from the last municipal elections, we see that it varied between 43-45%. The AK Party, which won around 45% of the votes in 30 major cities which make up 70% of the electorate, was able to receive 43% of the votes in 51 provinces which make up the remaining 25% of the electorate.

It could be assumed that the following three areas will dominate the preferences of the electorate compared to other areas:

The acknowledgment by the electorate about the fact that country-wide economic growth is not currently at the desired point. The electorate “may not be aware” of the fact that the GDP per capita has remained the same –around $10,000- for the past 5 or 6 years, and even the fact that this amount has fallen in real terms due to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the dollar, but they may be “sensing it” in a strong manner…

The average electorate may not exactly make sense of the expression of inflation in

technical terms and numbers, but they realize it when they see that the cost of food that they eat is constantly rising, while the money that they earn constantly loses value when it comes to buying things, as well as the decrease in the quality of living standards…

Turkey is a country of young pensioners. When we think of the fact that the total number of those on pension plans is 15-16 million and the total number of households with people on pensions is around 10 to 12 million, it could be guessed that this corresponds to about 25 to 30 million electorates. Based on the fact that there will be about 55 million electorates in the upcoming general elections, it could be claimed that the votes of pensioners will turn out to be critical determinants of the elections.

When all of these three parameters come together, it is necessary to anticipate that rather than talking about large projects, - what some researchers refer to as “the pocket economy” and/or “the kitchen economy”- which will play a more critical role in determining the electorate's choice. Because each new and great project may lead the electorate to ask, “I wonder how much money this will cost me this time?”

How the AK Party wants to transform its mission and attach priority to which aspects in the long term to implement the next “information society” leap should separately be assessed. Of course, the issue of alliances must not be forgotten. (It is never enough for us to repeat this: rulership is acquired by alliances); of course allowing internal disputes within the party should not mean giving a green light to factionalism, polarization, and conflict; needless to say, those who try to pump up the President-Prime Minister dilemma should not be given credit. Of course the ambiguous atmosphere that Mr. Babacan and Şimşek –ministers who spend great effort in the administration of the government's fiscal discipline- will be disintegrated and of course emphasis will be put on major projects which will sustain the country for 2023 and afterwards. However, they will certainly not turn a blind eye to the “pocket economy” and “kitchen economy” -focused perception that is shared by the electorates especially those on pension plans….

According to the claims of research experts, this is the key to holding on to around 45% of the votes and even surpass it…

#Al Saydam

#İbrahim karagül

#election

#AK Party