I will never forget this remark by Golda Meir, a founder of Israel and its fourth prime minister, perhaps because of the forceful impact it had:
“Let me tell you one thing that we Israelis accuse Moses of: He made us wander the desert for 40 years and finally brought us to the only place in the Middle East that doesn’t have oil.”
This remark about energy, which Israel feels is the most important thing it lacks in order to ensure the survival of its role in the region -- and has been burned into my mind -- has gained even more significance due to developments in the Mediterranean in recent years.
Meir was mistaken. She didn’t live long enough to witness the discovery of the Levant basin, which showed that this treasure, for which a fervent search was launched on land ever since the 1950s, was actually located in the sea. It proved that Meir’s lament was misplaced.
IS IT POSSIBLE WITHOUT THE UNITED STATES?
In my article in November last year titled “Energy games in the Mediterranean,” I had mentioned the Greek Cyprus-Greece-Egypt triumvirate established against Turkey, but had also noted that Israel and the United States were the principal founders of the game and that it was a complicated business.
It is due to a report that I am now continuing from where I had left off that day. Last month the Strategic Studies Institute, a think-tank which is linked to the U.S. Army, published a report on this subject: Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role.
A heading that effectively means “energy in the eastern Mediterranean cannot be shared without U.S. involvement.”
PARTNERS SHOULDN’T BE DISCOURAGED
The Levant basin, which including Cypriot and Israeli offshore zones, also includes the resources in onshore and offshore areas of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. It contains a minimum of 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 3.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. It should be stressed these figures only correspond to one-third of the area where the potential has been verified.
This treasure of hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean has naturally resulted in the area becoming a favorite child in recent years. Israel and Greek Cyprus in particular, will not only be freed of foreign energy dependency but will also be able to earn large amounts of revenue through this. These resources can be a total game changer…
But disputes in the region are proving to be a source of displeasure to both actors. In particular the Arab-Israeli conflict and Turkey’s backing of northern Cyprus as it seeks its rights…
The report also cites this argument, and states: The resources in the East Mediterranean possess immense economic and geostrategic significance; however not just for the region, but also for the region’s allies like the United States! A bit too much emphasis on “allies like”…
FOR ENERGY NOT TO BECOME TRAPPED IN THE REGION
Cyprus, as you know, is a strategic base for U.S. military operations and intelligence activities. On the basis of this, the report states that in order for its position on the island not to suffer any damage, the United States should play a mediating role between Greek Cyprus and Turkey.
Not just Greek Cyprus but all its allies are on alert in case of any potential disruption to developments regarding the resources in question. Nobody want to dash the hopes of “strategic base” Greek Cyprus, whose economy is on the verge of collapse.
Another reason for bringing the Island to prominence, of course, is to ensure cooperation between Israel and Greek Cyprus… As I stressed before, this is because there is a desire to leave Turkey out of the picture, despite it providing the most economical option of transferring regional energy to the world. This is why, instead of the option of a pipeline, the option of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is being promoted.
If if weren’t for Turkey, then a strategy not involving LNG would mean that both actors would currently be trapped in a region they dislike and be unable to convert their resources to money…
PUSHING FOR LNG WHEN TURKEY IS THERE
This, just as we thought it would, means using the United States as a catalyst to bring into play this source of power discovered by Israel and Greek Cyprus.
The report draws attention to the benefits of a joint LNG approach by both sides within this framework. I had previously mentioned that since it is not feasible for the Greeks to establish a plant on the island just for their own resources, they have taken steps to cooperate with Egypt.
I won’t repeat myself but will make an addition: In this report we come across signs of Israel joining in this cooperation; just as we had expected. A plant in Cyprus might be considered, apart from the plants that are already online in Egypt.
On the other hand, it is not as if the study doesn’t mention the potential of Turkey becoming an energy hub. I had previously written that European Union mediation is required for a Turkey-focused solution, which is the smartest one, despite a clash with the interests of certain actors, Greek Cyprus in particular. It will prove to our benefit as well if the role attributed to the United States in the report, which is the creation of a joint Western force in this regard, becomes reality.
The report does, however, state that it will be a difficult task unless the Cyprus knot is untied. The reason why Turkey’s importance is brought to the agenda is mentioned in the last pages of the report and it is not because they are enamored with us:
“The crisis between Russia and the West creates the grounds for both Israeli and Cypriot gas to use the Turkey route for exports.”
In short, even if there is no mention of it in the report, when the small and large pieces of the puzzle are put together and a bigger picture is created, we see the United States’ attempt at being a Major Power.
In this context, let the last sentences of the report be my final sentences as well:
“Any absence of visible U.S. diplomatic and technical assistance could lead to a gradual change of alliances among some parts of the region toward emerging powers and potential new peace brokers.”
We know who they mean. Anyway they mentioned it: Russia and China…
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