Just as Al-Qaida had blinded us in the matter of comprehending the global operations on the Muslim generation, ISIL discourse had also blinded us in the sense of comprehending what"s been happening in Iraq. Sadly, the Turkish media have been drawing a tragic ISIL and Iraq map.
Still being unable to learn the inner dynamics of a country, which is our neighbor and been experiencing war since 1991, trying to cover up ignorance with heroism and popular discourse is a situation both bewildering and hurting.
We were also in a similar situation when they made us believe that the purpose of Iraq invasion was the purge of Saddam"s dictatorship. Before this, they"ve also deceived us in Afghanistan"s invasion by showing Al-Qaida and Taliban as the reason.
During those times, there were few people in this country who"ve questioned the foreign armies that have settled in the heart of Mesopotamia. As we were being stuck between Saddam"s oppression and Taliban bigotry, they were setting up bases all around the geographies, from North Africa to the Pacific borders, taking oil regions under their control, bringing these related geographies to their knees with the help of organizations, and shredding them to pieces through their ethnical and sectarian identities. Our intellectual profundity on perceiving the world and geography was nothing but a PR operation for them and they were capable of doing this via media. Everyone, ranging from our politicians to our enlightened ones, were doing politics and directing the public opinion through symbols and popular images.
That is why, whatever happened was out of expectation. That is why, the ones that made the correct determinations were clamped down. That is why, to direct Turkey and the region, budgets worth of million dollars were reserved. That is why, we were always mistaken on the possible occurrings in Iraq.
Now the same is happening. We cannot find anyone that can create a sentence other than the "ISIL is a terrorist organization" statement. Forget about going back to 2003, we cannot even properly make a weekly impression. We cannot create or find answer to these following questions; What kind of a structure is this organization, how can they act this rapid, where did they originate from, what are they trying to do, where do they stand in the tattered structure in Iraq, why did they take Turks as hostages .....
Everyone at Iraq is an organization
We are watching Iraq"s division today. Actually, it was de facto divided into three parts on the day of the invasion. No one showing up in the squares and everyone locking themselves in their homes while Saddam"s statue was being demolished, was an indicator. Saddam"s "Beware of Pharisees" words as he was being executed, was actually the brief summary of the deep disintegration and conflicts in Iraq. The ones, who overthrew Saddam via invasion, had created oppressions that will compete with the deceased"s oppressions. Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds had completely disintegrated and everyone directed themselves to their own futures just at that time.
Kurds had established a stable region, while protecting themselves from all this chaos. Shia Arabs had established a central government in Baghdad and swiftly they cloaked this administration in their character and embarked the way of purging other elements. At first the Sunni Arabs had entered the administration in Baghdad and after that they have been deactivated. They have been pushed out of the Iraq equation. When the political representation way was ineffective, the organizations stepped in and filled that gap.
Now, other than the Kurds and Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs are re-entering the equation. This is happening through the coalition of organizations, namely ISIL. Therefore, if we are content with defining ISIL as an Al-Qaida type of organization, we will have difficulty in understanding the new power dynamism in Iraq.
If we are to qualify them as an organization, although Nuri El Maliki is heading the government, he actually is a member of the organization. Everyone in the country is a member to an organization or a congregate. If we are to talk about violence and terror, including Maliki, a lot of people, who are prominent names in the Iraq politics, are responsible for massacres and executions. Is it possible to forget about the Shia death squads? Is it possible to forget the ones who entered houses and executed people by gunfire? Is it possible to forget Sunni organizations" attacks, which resulted in blown up Shia mausoleums? Everyone in Iraq are somehow involved in this violence.
What I want to explain is, when viewed from the axis of organizations and terror, it"s impossible to provide any initiative to Iraq dynamics other than the terror definition. This is blinding our visions about what will happen in this country after a week.
A sectarian war is being experienced
U.S" and United Kingdom"s Iraq invasion had left two heritages: The disintegration of the country and sectarian war. The disintegration had already happened de facto. Now, possibly after this new equation it will become more evident and even be officialized.
Sectarian centered civil war is being experienced since the invasion. Even though nobody wants to mention, there had been more deaths in this war then during the invasion. Hundreds of thousands of people had lost their lives in this war between Shia and Sunni organizations. Afterwards, the Shia organizations became a state and the Sunni organizations had been purged.
Here today, the Sunni organizations are coming back in order to be a state. Exactly like the Shia organizations" becoming a state. Unfortunately, the sectarian conflict, which had been experienced before and with Turkey"s intense efforts had been prevented from exceeding outside of Iraq, is starting again. Quite severe conflicts between ISIL and Shia groups are expected. There is a preparation for reckoning.
What we call a sectarian war is actually a power/rulership war. This type of wars are sometimes carried out through ethnical identities, religion or sect. Today in Iraq, state-rulership-oil reckoning is being serviced via sect again.
According to the new Iraq image, Sunni Arabic organizations won"t clash with the Kurds. They don"t have an account to settle with them. There can only be a critical conflict in question on the subject of Kirkuk. This will only be possible due to Kirkuk"s identity and oil, rather than a war with Kurds. These organization shouldn"t have an account to settle with Turkey.
Their reckoning is related with Iran and Shia groups or the Baghdad administration. Serious clashes might break out. They would desire to capture all the Sunni villages and might even take these villages under control. Without these, they cannot attack Baghdad. However, eventually if they remain standing and succeed in their plans, unfortunately a great Baghdad war awaits us.
Shia Crescent – Sunni Bloc and Arab – Iran war
Even though the Iraq centered wars are experienced in the way of outer invasions, essentially it"s an Arab-Iran war. This war is being operated via sect and nationalism. As much as Shia-Sunni, the Arabian and Persian nationalisms are quite decisive in these wars.
In order to prevent this incident from transforming into a sectarian crisis, Turkey had somehow interfered before. This time, Turkey is under the responsibility of finding ways for intervening to this crisis, which has the potential to burn the whole region.
Iran"s intervention, as they directly did to Syria, to this incident will expand this sectarian war even more. Tehran"s charisma in Iraq has been ruined after the ISIL incident. Tehran-Baghdad axis was heavily wounded. Thus, their direct intervention to the related war will transform the sectarian war from organization category into states category, which results in the whole region being surrounded by this fire.
Whatever happens, as long as the Sunni Arabs are not allowed a power domain, this war will continue. Let"s talk about the beyond; Sunni Arabs" adventure won"t be limited with Iraq, rather, it will transform into a project that involves Syria as well. I think that a Sunni resistance line is being constructed against the "Shia Crescent". Also, a front is being built on the Iraq-Syria line against the Iran threat.
So where does the hostage incident fit in this complicated equation? This is one of the most important questions.
In my opinion, nowhere...
At least it"s not falling into place within the Iraq equation. After all, it shouldn"t. Turkey"s affinity towards the Kurds has reached a climax following the latest oil agreement. There are also strong ties with Shias as well. At least, it"s trying to be built for years. The biggest supportive power, in the event of Sunni Arabs" joining the government, was also Turkey. All along, Turkey"s relations with Sunni tribes and political circles were always strong.
So why was Turkey targeted?
I don"t really think that this is related with Iraq. Personally, the hostage incident is directly connected with Turkey"s internal affairs. Some people are interfering with Turkey"s internal affairs via Iraq. Maybe they are trying to call the account of Syria politics or trying to pull Turkey"s regional politics to a desired place. I"m of the opinion that this internal affair dimension is being read perfectly by Ankara. Within all these unknowns, my thesis is in this direction.
Leave the ISIL and terror equation aside: Let"s review the incidents in the context of Iraq-Iran war, Saudi Arabia-Iran war, Arabic-Persian war and Kirkuk – Baghdad war.