Nothing in the Middle East will be resolved and there will be no normalization until the Arab-Israeli problem is solved. This has been the case for 50 years now.
The occupation of Iraq rocked all the foundations of the region. The country experienced such a dissolution that the common identity of being Iraqi doesn’t exist anymore. The hopes toward once again uniting that country as one have never been this low. If this dissolution continues in the same vein then it will transform into separation at the first opportunity, dependent on regional conditions. It is no longer possible to get the Middle East back on track without solving the Iraq issue first.
Syria is experiencing far worse chaos and dissolution than Iraq. The ethnic and sectarian-based divide is deeper than ever in Syria, just like it is in Iraq. It could be said that Syria will not be able to get its act together for years, when the situation of the Christians is added to this. The Syrian issue has become much more of an “international” problem compared to Iraq. In this aspect Syria represents a far more complicated and difficult question when compared to Iraq.
The truth is that all these problems feed off each other. The Palestine issue led to Israel attempting to sow discord in the entire region, and it also led to it trying to provoke the United States to move in the same direction. Iraq was the first example of this, and now the dissolution in Iraq is triggering the dissolution of Syria. The ISIL example, on its own, suffices to indicate that Iraq and Syria are now a single issue and single front.
If this dissolution continues, it might also result in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries, and Yemen facing dissolution. Lebanon might become engulfed in flames again. The dimensions of the Arab-Israeli war might change. The dissolution of Iraq, for instance, wreaked havoc on Turkey’s security strategies.
The dissolution of Syria is already leaving its mark on Turkey’s societal and political structure. The operations carried out by the United States and its allies in Iraq, and Russia and Iran in Syria, dealt severe blows to Turkey’s regional position. Iran’s stance on Syria in particular fuelled ethnic and sectarian reaction in Turkey.
There is just one topic that needs thinking about now: Can this Dissolution Process be halted somewhere, before it spreads to other countries? Can the crisis be confined within Iraq and Syria? Can this ethnic and sectarian slide be brought under control before it affects the entire region?
It is a matter of urgency for every country, including Turkey, to exert maximum effort in this regard. This is because none of the problems in the region are limited to regional dynamics; and quickly become global problems. This makes resolving the issues more difficult and leads to the creation of new fronts every day. The “chaos geography” thesis of the pro-Atlantic view is valid, and this thesis envisions the dissolution of many countries, including Turkey. We all know that if it weren’t for the strong political will that has existed in Turkey for the past 10 years, those waves of dissolution would have struck Turkey much harder.
We faced many serious problems with Iraq during Nouri al-Maliki’s time. Maliki’s Tehran-focused structuring and fully sectarian viewpoint caused serious damage to both Iraq and the region. Baghdad had almost become an Iranian garrison. The Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus axis was transformed into a regional front and accelerated the dissolution.
It is cause for hope that the new Iraqi administration appears to seek normalization of relations with both Turkey and Northern Iraq. It is also cause for hope that the Iraqi prime minister appeared eager for a relationship that “even exceeds zero problems” during his visit to Ankara. Of course, we cannot say how much of this will materialize, and to what extent rapprochement can be made independent of Iranian and Western influence. But we are very much in need of hope these days.
What will happen to Syria? Is there no ray of hope? Around 200,000 people have lost their lives. More than seven million people have been displaced. The country lies in ruins. The Damascus administration survives with Russian and Iranian support, and due to the West turning a blind eye. Everyone is aware that this regime finds itself in a position that it will never be able to rule the country again. However, the Syrian public has been left to its fate and condemned to desolation. It is no longer possible to even talk of a Damascus administration. The structure we call the Syrian army is entirely directed by Iran.
Previously, while discussing Turkey-Russia relations, I had drawn attention to the following topic: Russia and Turkey, in fact, carried out two interventions that upset the West’s regional calculations. Russia acted in Ukraine, and Turkey in Syria. But both countries were totally opposed to each other’s interventions.
The crippling sanctions directed at Russia are intended to bring Moscow to its knees. The reason behind Vladimir Putin’s haste in getting close to Turkey during his visit to Ankara is because he has been driven into a corner. Will Moscow – which has established the strongest possible ties with Turkey in the economic arena – back track on the issue of Syria, which Turkey is most sensitive to?
Could it be that Moscow has given up on Bashar Assad? Could it be that it has been convinced about an “Assad-less solution?” The answer to this question is at the top of everyone’s minds these days. Such a picture, which could also be backed by the United States and European countries, might open the door to a comprehensive solution with regard to Syria.
The Syrian administration’s acceptance of Moscow’s suggestion that it negotiates with the opposition could be the first sign of this. This is because there are strong indications that a series of steps have been taken in regard to a Assad-less solution; and serious developments could occur in the coming month, which would result in the Syrian issue being dealt with in some manner. This hope is cause for excitement when one thinks of the deplorable situation inside Syria.
Some quarters, exceeding even these possibilities, are claiming that “agreement has been reached by the parties on an Assad-less solution, and names of who will replace him have been discussed.” Perhaps the ISIL threat forced many countries with differing positions to find a solution. We will soon find out.
Those who present every undesirable event in our near environs as Turkey’s fault and a result of its incompetence will not be pleased by this. Those who try to deflate Turkey on the basis of Syria won’t be pleased either. But it needs to be said right now that the unfavorable winds blowing in the region as a whole, will be replaced with an atmosphere of calm. It seems that the waves of dissolution will abate slightly given the normalization with Iraq and the search for a joint solution in Syria.
But be certain of this: Attempts will be made to sabotage any solution to the Syrian issue, exceeding by far the attempts to sabotage the reconciliation process. Be prepared for all kinds of intrigue. When the number of those who feed on blood is so large; it necessitates a confrontation with these circles, at least until a solution is found.
