Eight Azerbaijani soldiers, including Major-General Polad Hashimov, one colonel and two majors, were martyred in the Armenian attack on Azerbaijani territory. Azerbaijan then started striking Armenian positions.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said, “We are in a state of war.”
The location of the attacks is not where border clashes normally take place. It seems a little different than the clashes concerning Karabakh and other occupied Azerbaijan territory.
The attack took place in the Tovuz province, right beside the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. This shows that the matter is not just concerning Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Yerevan administration is in the hitman position here. It was hired in order to send a message to Azerbaijan and Turkey.
It is clear that those who hired it are Russia, France, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
There is no need to even mention Iran’s constant support to Armenia. While Armenians were invading Azerbaijani territory, Iran acted in cooperation with Russia and backed Armenian invasions. Iran, of which half the population is Azerbaijani, is trying to keep this internal matter under control by backing Armenians and weakening Azerbaijan.
This dimension of the matter must have been very well interpreted, hence all of Turkey, from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, declared its unwavering support to Azerbaijan.
Beyond support, the words used were, “We stand together, we are one country.” Erdoğan said, “We will stand by Azerbaijan till the end.”
If Erdoğan makes such a statement as Aliyev says, “We are at war,” it signifies that the attack was also against Turkey. Turkey has comprehended it well that, despite intense pressures from the Armenian lobby in Turkey, the attack was not only against Azerbaijan but also Ankara.
Turkey is no longer susceptible to the influence of these lobbies; it has formed its own mind map and radically changed its perspective of the region. We see the results of this change in Syria and Libya. We see it in the Mediterranean. We see it in the changed anti-terror logic. We see it in the changed geopolitical state of mind, which has internal security and the region under its influence.
It appears that we will see this radical change in the Caucasus as well.
The Caucasus will no longer “pin its hopes on the initiatives of the West” with respect to the Karabakh issue, the Azerbaijani lands under occupation.
We lost at all the “diplomacy tables” that were set by the West, by Europe.
If we had continued trusting those negotiations, we would not be in Libya today. We would have drowned in the Mediterranean. Terror would have continued to encroach on our cities.
The powers that convinced Armenia to attack Azerbaijan are rigging the game with the old Turkey in mind. Iran will lose in this game. Armenia will lose. Russia will lose. The UAE will lose.
We know that the project to “stop Turkey” is a Western project. It has been developed and cooked by them. All terrorist organizations have been mobilized in this regard.
An anti-Turkey Arab front has been established for this purpose. The Arab chapter of the project is being led by the UAE. Saudi Arabia’s regional power has also been activated for this purpose.
The same project is now being tasked to Russia and Iran. Will Russia fall for this trap? The greatest struggle for the West and its affiliates has been to kick-start a Turkish-Russian conflict. They tried this in Syria. Are they going to try it in the Caucasus now?
Iran may easily fall for into the “stop Turkey” trap. Its partnership with Armenia against Azerbaijan may be the key ingredient.
France, on the other hand, is trying to exact revenge on Turkey by carrying the war it lost in the Mediterranean and Libya to the Caucasus.
As Turkey is continuing to fight in Libya and Syria, as it is breaking the siege in the Mediterranean, they’re suddenly trying to open a “front” in the East. They are telling Ankara to “leave and return to the East.”
By attacking Azerbaijan, they are both tugging on Turkey’s heartstrings and trying to confuse its geopolitical strategy.
Turkey can make life unbearable for Armenia at the drop of a hat.
Turkey is well aware of the plans made and implemented by Iran and Russia aimed at dividing the Turkic world by utilizing Armenia. This is the main reason underlying the occupation of Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territory. It is to cut off its connection to Central Asia.
Even if the regimes change in Russia and Iran, this policy always remains the same.
Turkey has the capacity and intelligence to fight simultaneously in both the Mediterranean and the Caucasus. It has a deep political tradition and vast history in these areas.
If Russia, France, the UAE, and Iran continue to use Armenia to destabilize Azerbaijan and siege Turkey from the east, the effects of this will be felt across the whole region. It will be felt deeply in Dagestan and North Caucasus, and instability is going to spread through those regions.
They are trying to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to fall into the same trap as Saudi Arabia. The UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed destroyed every region he touched and failed to achieve anything at all.
The UAE is now trying to use Armenia and to get Russia to take action in its showdown with Turkey. It giving money to Armenia and advice to Russia. The UAE has neither the mental capabilities nor the physical strength to achieve these geopolitical goals across the region.
Putin’s attempt, on the other hand, to take advantage of the UAE, is a cheap move.
He has much more to lose than gain. Russia’s losses will be massive.
Looking at the UAE’s dirty business in Libya, Yemen and Syria, looking at Mohammed bi Zayed’s terror traffic, it’s obvious that it is going to add more skeleton’s to its closet with Azerbaijan. It will do everything in its power to stage a coup and cause internal instability.
They are constantly trying to keep Azerbaijan on “defense mode.” This also gives Baku its exit strategy. Azerbaijan must get over this “defense mentality,” realize its strength, and adopt a more aggressive path. Turkey broke through all sieges with this change. Baku needs to make similar mental, doctrinal changes.
The statement, “What will the international community say?” is long gone. That is not how the game is played anymore. You are what you do. We are in a period in which force spoils the game. There is no global “negotiation table,” “top body” left. Everything is being done through small-scale acts of solidarity and partnerships.
If Armenia becomes undertaker, the hitman for other countries, it will shrink. If Russia plays the old game in the Caucasus, chaos will arise not only in South Caucasus but in North Caucasus as well.
If Iran uses its rapport with Yerevan to weaken Azerbaijan, South Azerbaijan will take action one way or another. If the UAE tries to set up a game against Turkey in the Caucasus as well, it will very likely pay for it “at home.”
As long as Turkey exists, Azerbaijan will never be alone. The attack in Tovuz was not only against Azerbaijan but also Turkey. The Turkey-Azerbaijan defense cooperation will be based on this reality.
The defense of Azerbaijan is homeland defense. This is our political identity and awareness. This is how our geopolitical mind and strategies are as well. Do not forget, “homeland” is a vast concept for us!
When we say, “history is changing,” we are not just flexing our muscles.
