As Iraq is divided into three, the maps will change… - İBRAHIM KARAGÜL

As Iraq is divided into three, the maps will change…

Two questions exist: Will Iraq be divided into three? Will ISIL attack Turkey?

There are tens of questions that are still developing. If Iraq is divided, will Syria be divided as well? How will of all these reflect on Turkey? In which direction will the relations between Turkey and Kurds be routed? What will be the impact of these three separate independent states on the regional power map? Why can"t Turkey intervene in a country that is being divided by religion?

One obvious reality: After the invasion, the project to hold Iraq together had collapsed. The invasion had left chaos and disintegration behind. Actually, this was the real intention of the architects of this Iraq project. Since these environmental conditions didn"t happen until today, this project – that couldn"t be realized then – is being realized now.

After all, Kurds were always seeking their independence. Shiites had control over Baghdad and thus were already a state. If they lose the central administration, they will try being independent in Southern Iraq and eventually they will achieve this. The only part missing from the calculations was the Sunni Arabs. They were taken lightly. They had been punished because they had shown resistance against the invasion. Now they are coming into light as a third power and are taking control of the regions that belong to them.

The will of living together had already been collapsed in Iraq. Now it seems like this situation will be official. In fact, these three groups had set their hearts on this division and separation. There are no structures showing the will to hold the country together. There is no owner of the country. In that case, who will sustain this country and how?

Only Turkey. Turkey had put up a fight for the integrity of Iraq since 2003 up until now. They have always put this official thesis ahead. They"ve inseminated the sides and applied pressure on the international public opinion in this direction. But during these years, Turkey had also acknowledged that this thesis had collapsed; however, they kept opposing this, because they knew that this incident"s impact on the region would also affect Turkey deeply. Meanwhile, they"ve created strong relations with the Kurdish administration.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are responsible for the division in Iraq

The architects of Iraq"s division are Iran and Saudi Arabia. These two countries, who divided this region into two main poles, are also operating a multi-front war from Yemen to Iraq and Lebanon to Syria. On top of that, this war has been continuing since the Gulf War in 1991. An astounding clash has been continuing for the last 10 years in Iraq via religious identities and organizations. The equilibrium game, that was broken to the detriment of Saudi Arabia and that had extended Iran"s effective power towards the West, is restarting as ISIL becomes prominent.

We are watching an Arabic-Persian war from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean coasts. This war is being operated via religion rather than Arabic and Persian nationalism. This dangerous game, which is played between these two countries, had reached enough power that it has made all the countries in the region – including Turkey – reveal their security strategies. After this phase, we don"t have any chance of holding Iraq together. This doesn"t even seem to be possible. If you add the people, who build their 21st century regional projects on the microstates" thesis, into the Iran-Saudi Arabia equation, you can understand that there is no turning back. A lot of truth might be put forth by the U.S, U.K and France in order to discuss new Iraq formulas in details.

Therefore, it"s time to observe this new Iraq equation more realistically even though we might not like it. Note that this Sunni State project will not be limited with Iraq and it will include Syria at some point. Also note that, Shiites will gravitate towards a new administration in the South in the axis of Iran and Kurds will strengthen their international identification with the power gained from their energy wealth.

As the Baghdad-Erbil relations weaken, Erbil–Turkey relations will be reinforced. As Erbil breaks off from Baghdad, they will come closer to Turkey. In the upcoming months, more obvious indicators of this inclination can possibly surface.

Seljuk against Abbasids

The intimacy between Turkey and the Kurds can create a need for restructuring this regional power game. A historical process, like the example of the Seljuk alliance against the Abbasid administration, might reappear. This amazing energy might transform this division and resolution into a new power formation. Even though it"s not being voiced, I guess that Turkey is not ignoring this possibility. At least I can say that somewhere in their minds this possibility is occurred.

On the other hand, this calculation, or game is not limited to our rules. The regional and international resolution, will not allow such an energy blast. At least, they would wish to prevent this. And in order to do so, they would activate their crisis projects. If the Iran-Saudi Arabia equation cannot succeed in doing this, our traditional Western allies will mobilize in order to transform this collaboration and partnership into great clashes. Some might want to transform this into a Kurdish State project, while some might want to use this to change the map of Turkey.

These are possibilities that might change history. Consequently, there should be deep discussion over this matter. We are face to face with "either merging or a complete disintegration". While we are investing on the merging, everyone else will require a transformation that resolves in opportunities.

Two possibilities that will change the map

Today we are standing at the doors of these two possibilities. Both of these possibilities have the power to change the faith of the region and Turkey. In fact, these are power wars. Let"s see whom history will smile upon and whom it will turn its face against.

However, today"s detection is this: to split up Iraq. It seems like there is no return. The whole region, and especially Turkey, is required to make preparations for this new reality.

Within this confusion, Turkey is not a priority for ISIL. They are a part of Iraq"s splitting scenario and getting in a conflict with Turkey is out of the question. "Turkish hostages" are just planned to prevent Turkey from intervening on the incidents in the region during the splitting, thus leaving them stranded. I barely think that ISIL is the one that planned this. There must be a much larger mastermind behind this. This is not an organization"s mind; rather it"s a state"s mind. As the Iran – Saudi Arabia equation is fragmenting the region, Turkey"s unifier theses are being deactivated in this way.

Now let"s get together and think about the Seljuk Model …

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