COVID-19: what are the best and worst-case scenarios? Pandemic will be stopped early. There will be another revolution in information, technology. We have the means, capacity to do this. Or will the healthcare system collapse, leading to social upheavals? Will countries founder, leading to a state of emergency? So, what has changed already? - İBRAHIM KARAGÜL

COVID-19: what are the best and worst-case scenarios? Pandemic will be stopped early. There will be another revolution in information, technology. We have the means, capacity to do this. Or will the healthcare system collapse, leading to social upheavals? Will countries founder, leading to a state of emergency? So, what has changed already?

COVID-19 is not a local or regional epidemic but a global pandemic. Humanity is perhaps going through its toughest test; it is rediscovering its own weakness.

The definition of power is changing: While the limits of knowledge are being pushed, a most ordinary being is threatening all of humanity. The lifestyle we have come to know and become accustomed to until today is being reset.

The pandemic does not differentiate between country, region, ethnicity, religion, cultural group, economic or social status.

First time such a threat globalized

This is perhaps the first time that in recent history a threat became so globalized. It is capable of reaching even the most distant corners of the world. Regional wars, world wars, natural disasters, everything we witnessed to date were all limited to countries and regions. A part of the world could remain outside.

However, this time the case is different. Humanity is under total attack/threat and is making total defense.

The biggest issue is uncertainty. We started a war against the “common threat” with the means we have until a vaccine, medication is produced. So, what might happen from now onwards?

Optimistic scenario: Pandemic will be stopped very soon

1- The vaccine for corona is going to be found earlier than predicted.

2- Its medication is going to be produced early compared to other epidemics.

3- The cure is going to be found sooner than those for diseases such as Ebola, AIDS, SARS, H1N1.

4- Countries are going to help one another with respect to the vaccine and medication, because we have no other choice. The world is going to mobilize in this area – and it already has.

5- The disease is going to be stopped before it reaches the destruction, the disaster feared. It is going to be stopped before it can push our limits of fear and hope.

6- After the epidemic, countries, states, nations and individuals are going to learn the kinds of threat the human race may encounter.

7- An awareness, understanding is going to develop towards humans fighting against common threats instead of each other. A mental revolution is going to take place in this field.

8- Matters such as invasions, wars, internal conflicts, power conflicts, trade wards, and the plundering of resources and market are perhaps no longer going to be a priority

Capitalism will collapse, production, consumption craze will decline, religious values will gain power

9- Capitalism will collapse, a more just, more participative, more solidarity-oriented worldview is going to gain strength.

10- The production and consumption craze is going to settle in a more rational ground. The “need” concept is going to be more determining.

11- Multinational companies’ ambitions are starting to threaten the human race is going to become apparent and restrictive measures are going to be taken with this respect.

12- The understanding of city, settlement, housing is going to change.

13- A very serious environmental awareness, consciousness is going to develop.

14- Spiritual values, beliefs are going to gain strength.

15- With the war and after it, countries are going to strengthen their health system.

16- States and individuals are going to change their lifestyles in the positive sense. A new kind of social relationship network is going to be formed.

17- A cleaner, more careful and healthier life model is going to spread.

There will be a revolution in information, technology

18- After the epidemic, joint solidarity lines will be established between countries. New supra-national platforms will take shape. New kinds of multinational covenants, rules and institutions that restrict states and nations will be established.

19- After the epidemic, there will be an extraordinary boom in technology and information. We are perhaps going to witness the most serious information leap, the most radical mental transformation in human history.

20- We are going to heavily feel the obligation to give prominence to what is “humane” in our perception of “need” and our perception of human and value in political orders, economic orders, social orders, and lifestyle. We are perhaps going to take the most serious steps in this area.

Most pessimistic scenario: If healthcare system collapses, countries will collapse

I am sure that humanity’s joint experience, determination, ambition to live, power of knowledge is going to overcome the COVID-19 (Corona) epidemic with the least damage. However, predicting the worst scenario and preparing accordingly will not make us lose anything.

1- If the virus spreads very rapidly and cannot be controlled, the health system in some countries may collapse.

Reason: The health system in numerous African countries is extremely weak – to the point that there is no such system. The health system in many countries is very weak. Even those that are strong may not be able to endure in the case the epidemic gets out of control.

2- Currently, the health industry and system is the most strategic field that will keep countries standing. If it collapses everything will collapse. It will not be possible to intervene in the epidemic; institutions will start to collapse one after the other.

Social upheavals, revolts will take place, civilian governments will collapse

3- Civilian governments may collapse and this will lead to security problems. Many countries will have to switch to state of emergency.

4- Long-term lockdown, quarantine practices, the perception that the epidemic is out of control will mentally depress the masses and decrease their power to endure and resist. This will thus lead to social eruptions, social unrest and revolts.

5- If the economy stops, the financial system collapses, production mechanisms slow down or stop, countries and the world will stop too.


New types of wars, dangerous ideologies, organizations

6- Wars are made for economic interest and resources. Just as wealth leads to wars, so does poverty.

7- Countries may attempt conflicts, wars and invasions beyond prediction today for the earth’s resources.

8- Extremely dangerous new ideologies, beliefs and organizations may emerge.

9- The collapse of civil governments in Central Europe (where the most serious threat is) will take the entire world under its effect in a chain reaction. The political and social unrest on the U.S.-Europe axis will spread to every country.

Global state of emergency: Is it ‘the End of the World’ for West?

10- The world order as we know it will collapse. Waves of chaos will lead to an earthquake effect throughout the world. We may head towards a “global state of emergency.”

11- Some states will collapse. New powers will get on the ground. Some countries will gain serious power. The powers that control the global system, the power domain will change. The world’s power map and physical maps may change.

12- The central state coordination may collapse. When that collapses, states will collapse too. Nations will collapse. Countries will disintegrate.

13- The greatest destruction in human history will occur. The world’s axis will shift. This will be the “end of history” for the West in particular.

These will not happen but world order will change, some states will become ‘third world countries’

1- However, these are not going to happen. We are going to fight with all our might to prevent them from happening. We are going to use all our knowledge, capabilities and determination. Humanity is going to mobilize together (it already has) and prevent this disaster.

2- However, it is already possible to say that the political orders, social orders, political identities, organizations and discourses, social sensitivities and lifestyles are going to change.

3- It is already possible to say that all countries, states, powers shielded by wealth, powers “ruling the world” are going to lose their powers after the epidemic and become “third world countries.”

World’s weakest link not Africa but Europe!

4- Yes, the virus (COVID-19) is going to change political systems, ideologies, identities, theories about the future, economic conflicts, distinction between rich and poor, power maps, and confrontations. Or, the situation caused by the epidemic is going to give these the opportunity to change.

5- However, we know this now. The West’s arrogance is diminishing. Its financial, economic system is collapsing. Its power privilege is collapsing. This is what the things we are seeing happen in Italy, France, the U.K. and Germany tell us.

6- We realize that they world’s weak link is not Africa or another region but the West. All the acceptances in minds have been reset.

Strong central power domain, strong leadership. Turkey has great advantage

7- It appears that countries with a weak central power domain, countries that lack a strong leadership, that are unable to ensure social solidarity and coordinate well are going to experience serious damage. Turkey is one of the world’s leading countries in all these fields.

8- As Turkey, we must keep the health system and central power domain strong. If we can manage to keep these two standing, we are going to come to the fore as a much stronger country after the epidemic. While power and wealth change hands, Turkey is going to be one of the main shareholders.

9- Finally, we are going to defeat this pandemic. If individuals act as responsible as the state and institutions (I personally think they are), we are going to overcome this threat.

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