I think the most troubled country of the region is not Iraq or Syria, but Saudi Arabia. A speedy containment policy and a destabilization strategy is being implemented, and each passing day, the extent of these is becoming more threatening.

Iraq and Syria are entirely going through chaos. Not from countries which have secondary influence nor actors of the regional balance. These two countries have become victims of the power and territorial wars that are conducted on them. Their destinies are integrated in a speedy manner with this aspect.

It seems as though the political borders of the passage extending from the Iranian border to the Mediterranean will never be as it is today. Actually, both Iraq and Syria have become the extended battlefronts of the Arab-Iranian power struggle.

The borders of the Arab world are changing

In the past, the Eastern border of the Arab world was the Iranian border. The Gulf War of 1991 subverted this equation while the invasion of Iraq in 2003 has completely left the country at Iran’s disposal. This time, the Arab-Persian border was drawn to the Syria-Iraq border. This was the case, despite the fact that the administration in Damascus completely centered on Tehran. On top of that, there was a strong attempt to reduce the influence of Iran on Syria and this was partially effective.

 All of a sudden, a civil war broke out in Syria. The goal was to topple the Baath regime in this country and break the Axis of Iran which extended to the Mediterranean. Unfortunately, expectations were unfulfilled and the Western world did not maintain the determination that it had shown in the beginning. Necessary support for the opposition was not provided. The war brought more Iranian power in a stronger manner to Syria. As they attempted to break the axis of Iran in Syria, the opposite happened and Tehran started to have de facto power over Syria. Iran became the winner at the second battlefront of the Arab-Persian war.

If we suppose that Iran also has significant power in Lebanon, we can say that Iran is on full alert to leap forward to the Mediterranean. If you pay careful attention, the armies in Iraq and the troops of Assad are commanded by Iranian commanders. Iran is in Southern Lebanon, as well as in the Golan Heights, which serves as a line of reckoning between Syria and Israel.

Gulf countries may be stirred

Saudi Arabia was the biggest supporter of the 1991 Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. She paid a heavy price for these wars. She was also the financial sponsor of the previous Iraq-Iran war. But Saudi Arabia became the losing party herself. She completely lost Iraq. Now Saudi Arabia is one of the actors who adopts a strong and clear position in the Syrian war. If things stay like this, it seems like what happened in Iraq may also take place in Syria.

But there is another front; Yemen. There, too, was a struggle between the Yemeni administration and the Houthis for years. Saudi Arabia went on a de facto war and tried to stop the Houthis. But the exact opposite happened. Iran-backed Houthis seized control of the administration in Yemen. Iran not only vanquished Saudi Arabia in this region, but also obtained an extraordinary strategic post along the Red Sea.

As for Bahrain, located on the Persian Gulf, the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues. The next move will be made to this region. Most probably, the Gulf will be jumbled up, and even the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, which was established by Saudi Arabia and even has joint troops, is likely to receive a heavy blow. In Bahrain, the Shia uprising was stopped by the support of Saudi troops, but it is not clear for how long they will be able to resist.

Saudi Arabian civil war

This containment policy may penetrate the borders of Saudi Arabia in the near future.  The Shia minority, who live in the Eastern oil-rich regions have been quite restless for a while. Regional chaos may incite these circles to rebel and this may then turn into a civil war in Saudi Arabia. The Arab-Persian power struggle had backfired in Saudi Arabia’s interest in Yemen and the danger had started to proceed towards the heart of the Arab world. This is the current state of affairs of the Arab-Persian power struggle, which has been going on since roughly about thirty-five years.

Now, there might be opposition against this diagnosis. The description of the Arab-Persian struggle may sound odd. After all is said and done, each occupation or civil war has other dynamics. For instance, Iraq was occupied, because of Saddam Hussein, and this was an American occupation. These compose the extra territorial picture of the issue: but, if you pay close attention, this distinction and power struggle has served as the determining factor.

And these wars have been waged over identities. Identity is necessary to market wars to nations and societies. That identity in our geography, especially these days, consists of sects. Countries of the region did not hesitate to exploit this identity as much as they can.

The civil war in Iraq following the occupation was conducted over religious sects and now the same things is happening in Syria. This had happened in Yemen and had always been the main factor shaping Lebanon. The Gulf is dragged into sectarian-based disintegration in a speedy manner. The only place Iran supports without having the same sect is Palestine. Besides this, the power map of Iran completely focuses on a religious sect.

The strategic blindness of Saudi administration

The Saudi administration has made a great mistake. It defined the Muslim Brotherhood –whose influence expands from Sudan to Syria and can provide an alternative- as a first-degree threat. It attempted to embark on an uphill struggle to confront the Muslim Brotherhood in the region as a whole, including the military coup in Egypt. As it did this, it exposed its soft spots, weakened itself and left a huge gap behind it. The winner of this strategic mistake which blinded the Saudi administration was Iran. Iran filled in every gap left behind and the Saudi administration’s struggle with the Brotherhood made the region vulnerable to Iranian intervention.

It may sound like rambling, but if the struggle in Syria is concluded with Iran’s victory, there will be chaos in the Gulf first, followed by Saudi Arabia. In other words, the only target will be Saudi Arabia. Take a note of this if you would like.

Imperialist Iran

I am not writing these lines with hostility towards Iran nor sympathy towards Saudi Arabia. I am capturing an image of a region. Whether you accept it or not, this is the situation. Iran knew how to make use of chaos and transform these into strategic victories. However, these gains have made Iran be perceived as a regional threat. It has brought out a harsh reality of imperialist Iran, which is insistent, ambitious, expansionist and insensitive towards her neighbors.

So what is Turkey’s position in this matter? I know that Turkey is aware of the new power map, shape, the formation of new blocks and groups. And I believe that Turkey will be the only antidote against the regionalization and spread of chaos.

Hereby, I can already say that Turkey will be much more active in the near future and we will be watching Turkey in full action.