While following President Erdoğan's Kuwait visit, I kept thinking about the security problems Kuwait and the Gulf countries will be facing in the upcoming few years. For instance, I was beset with the concern of whether the Kuwait invasion in Aug. 1990 by Saddam Hussein would be repeated.
Back then Iran and Iraq were enemies and the entire world was mobilized against this invasion. Today the situation is totally the opposite: The central management of Iraq is almost under the Iran's control. And Iran is carrying out an “unnamed” war from Lebanon to Yemen with a “front” sided by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. I am with those who believe that this polarization will, in a couple years, cause revolts and as a matter of fact, the Iranian military threat is going to turn toward these countries. I have been sharing my concerns in this regard for a while now. It is clear that Tehran will be using the Bagdad administration effectively in this geopolitical power demonstration. This is where my concern regarding Kuwait stems from. Could Iraq's new role in Tehran's Gulf scenario be a new Kuwait invasion?
I was wrong about one thing …
Is the Gulf region, consisting of Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman as well as Saudi Arabia, becoming the main front of a new regional conflict? Right after the dual-pole world system was disintegrated, the first front was opened in South Africa. Afghanistan was invaded and Pakistan was once again dragged into this war. The second was opened in Mesopotamia. Iraq was invaded. Syria became a part of that front. The third front was opened in the Central African region. While all this was happening, I thought the main front in Africa would increase through division into small fronts and that the fourth front would open in Southeast Asia.
I was wrong. My thoughts regarding Africa were right. Today, from Central Africa to the north, many countries are facing infightings, instabilities and military interventions. However, my thesis that a new front would open in Southeast Asia was wrong. This chain of conflicts which will witness possibly the greatest and most grievous of conflicts has been postponed for the time being.
Because they discovered something very new, which will drag the entire geography into war.
A “ Century-Old Siege ” or
' A century-old account settling ' ?
For 15 years I discussed all intervention projects aimed at our geography under the titles “Century-old siege, disintegration” and “Century-old showdown.” Because for us, the 20th century was a lost century. The tutelage centers of that period were designing a new 20th century for us. I saw this situation as the “Century-old disintegration.”
Whereas we thought that history would change, we would close the 20th century bracket, a new era of enlightenment and resurrection would begin. I took this thought and defined it as the “Century-old showdown.” If we were to ever get back up on our feet, this was going to be after a tough struggle, and Turkey included, it is this showdown today that the people of this geography are experiencing.
This is the real evil!
Those who are planning a new 20th century for the geography, before opening the Southeast Asia Front, discovered a new conflict area that is more destructive and closer to home. This was an evil that would pull the region into bloody wars, divide countries, divide streets and divide homes: Sectarian wars.
Frankly speaking, as of today, we all seem to have fallen into this trap. Ethnic battles are partially restricted to narrow regions. However, the sectarian identity has a definition in the entire Muslim world. If this matter can be turned into “a global conflict across the geography,” the designers of the new 20th century will not need to do anything further. This is a free, low risk chaos theory for them and they have concentrated their entire energy in this area.
The countries in the region thought their role in the design of the superior mind is their own reality, their interest, their geopolitical reckoning. Whereas, they weren't even aware that this improvidence would turn out to be one of the greatest mistakes in history. Even if they are aware, they took an opportunist position thinking, “Whatever we gain in this vacancy is a profit.” They are struggling to understand that these opportunities will tomorrow turn into great disasters for them.
When this is the case, after a while, the countries will not be able to escape those “realities.” In another domino effect, conflicts are going to follow one after the other and we are going to “rightfully” take a position in those conflicts.
Iran ' s map for expansion: Mecca
Emphasis on war isn't for nothing
Frankly speaking, the most opportunistic country currently taking the best advantage of this vacancy is Iran. It is forming its own imperial Persian expansion under the shadow of the imperial projects aimed at the region. And this expansion is being shaped in accordance with the sect map.
Iran's expansion map was being partially tolerated with efforts to balance it in another way. However, as a result of the latest Yemen intervention, the danger was felt in all capitals. Tehran's Yemen scenario is programmed to surround Saudi Arabia, contain it within its borders and in the next step, to shoot it in the heart. Hence, I always classify the point the scenario will reach as the “Mecca War” and I use the expression “the tanks knocking on the door of the Kaaba” as an alarm.
Looking at the situation from here, the Saudi administration had no other choice but to interfere in Yemen. No country would expect a power that has come all the way to its borders to strike it in the next step. This intervention indicates that there is very little left for that regional tear, separation and fear of war. Take note of the recent change of posts in the Saudi administration. It seems as though they are forming a war cabinet.
A nationalist expansion will strike the Gulf, not an Islamist one
While Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries in alliance with the other Sunni countries take a position against this threat, one doesn't need to try hard to believe that Iran is going to pull the Gulf region into chaos before Riyadh. Let me repeat; all Gulf countries are under threat and within a couple of years, we are all going to see what this threat is. Although the nuclear reconciliation is classified as the “Lausanne of Iran,” if this reconciliation eases Tehran's hand and alleviates the pressures on it, Iran's accumulated energy will be exerted into the entire region in the form of nationalism. Now that is when we will see the actual expansion of Iran.
Turkey and Pakistan are the two countries that have a stabilizing action capacity against all this chaos. Ankara's support to Riyadh regarding Yemen and Pakistan following the situation for now indicate that both countries have defined the threat. Still, Turkey and Pakistan have the capability to warn the countries and communities in the region, create a road map, provide a solution, and guide a few countries like Indonesia and Malaysia to act with caution against this chaos. We hope these countries will take action at once and do what is necessary before the blaze surrounds the entire region.
Intervention in Syria essential
I am not marketing fear. I am merely making a call to look a little more closely at what is approaching. These are not baseless concerns; for those who are able to read them, the indicators have appeared long ago.
Syria must be the first place to take action. The tragedy in this country must be brought to an end. The Damascus administration which has no legitimacy should be discharged, the country should be removed from Iranian control and a new Syrian administration should be established at once. Hence, the number of possibilities that may extend the war should be reduced and opposition forces should be supported in every way. After Yemen, I believe Syria's labor will increase to a maximum. I believe that Turkey will also take its place in this labor with the most active contribution possible.
There will be an intense Syria agenda awaiting us particularly after the June 7 elections. The most important stabilizing step to be taken in the meantime would be the normalization of Syria. Otherwise, this country will turn into a threat that will put the entire geography under fire.
Turkey is putting up a centennial fight
If we don't want tanks and canons to pound the Kaaba's doors, if we don't want pages and verses from the Quran hung on the barrels of guns, if we don't want to turn into bullets against one another, if we don't want our country and people which have been paying the price for a century to die for others' battles for another century, we need to take urgent action.
Take note that those who have been accusing Turkey of seeing the Ottoman dream have nothing to say about Persian nationalism and expansionism. See how big the struggle given by Turkey in the recent years is. Because they know very well that they cannot possibly turn the entire region into a battle field before stopping Turkey. Hence, Turkey is displaying a centennial resistance and it will succeed in it, too.
I did not ask “if Iraq will re-invade Kuwait” just because it's a striking sentence. According to the new map drafts, this really is possible!
