Not only Turkey, but also the world is confused on the subject of ISIL. But I don"t think no one approached this incident as shallowly as the Turkish media did.
We are experiencing a "specialist terror", which, is unable to exceed the Al-Qaida, terror, murder and organization concepts, doesn"t have any depth, is clueless about Iraq"s power structure, and, also forgets about what happened in this country a month ago.
First of all; in Iraq all the organizations" hands are covered in blood. If you look back on the history of the political circles that came to power with legitimate elections, you can see that they are structures that had used the same terror methods, killed civilians, carried out executions and even joined massacres.
If we are to say something, we should say something over these. We should be able to comprehend what"s happening today first, and then, foresee what will happen in the future.
ISIL is a coalition of organizations. By the looks of it, between the ranks of the organization, there are some close to Al-Qaida, there are some against it, there are Arab nationalists, and also some close to the salafi culture. Meanwhile, there are some who commit murders and also some who are resisting against the invasion of Iraq.
But this coalition"s, or to put it better, this roof settlement"s common definition of today is "Sunni formation. It"s the surfacing of the Arabic Sunni organizations by the means of ruining the power map in Iraq.
What really concern us more are the next developments after this stage. Because the analyses on the future of our neighbor Iraq are starting after this stage.
In reality, there are three separate states within Iraq
Iraq is de facto separated into three pieces. The will of living together has been destroyed for Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. As much as a separation on an official and national scale is out of the question, the hearts and minds had been separated.
Kurds had acquired a de facto independence within the structure established after the invasion. They"ve establish a steady structure in their own region at Northern Iraq. Their relationship with the Central Baghdad government had reached a point of break during this past two years.
Shia Arabs, with the full support of Iran and U.S, had become the owners of the Iraq state. They couldn"t have influence of the Kurds, but in a manner of speaking, they"ve purged Sunni Arabs out of the system. Tehran- Baghdad axis became the strongest solidarity line after the invasion. The common support for the Damascus administration was originated from this. Because this solidarity line extends to Lebanon via Syria and this is a containment movement aimed at Turkey.
The role given to Sunnis, through political parties, elections and the government, had become a showpiece. Even when Turkey was close to Kurds, and had good relations with Shiah Baghdad administration, Turkey still exerted himself to his capacity so the Sunni Arabs can be well represented in the Baghdad administration. They even persuaded the ones boycotting and helped them in joining the administration. For the last couple of years, Nouri el Maliki administration has been successful in negating the Sunni Arabs. The effects of these circles on the Iraq administration had weakened. Relying on three main political powers, after Kurds distanced themselves and with the deactivation of Sunni Arabs, Iraq had completely came under the power of Shiah administration.
Sunni Arabs had been knocked out of the sharing made via oil, gas and energy corridors. Kurdish oil resources entered the international markets. With the recent agreements made with Turkey, the relations between Northern Iraq and Baghdad had reached a breaking point. Ankara, while supporting the central government since the beginning, withdrew his support following the cooperation between Baghdad administration and Tehran.
Following these events, Northern Iraq administration turned their face from Baghdad to Ankara. This is an essential breakup. Though, when all this was happening, no one paid attention to Sunni Arabs. Their demands and interests had been discarded.
We woke up one morning, and found in front of us an organization named ISIL, which had been in war with the Baghdad administration for a couple of years, starting to capture Sunni cities in a flash.
They want a state and oil
They are aiming directly towards cities, towns belonging to Sunnis. They are moving towards oil region, taking the energy corridors under their control. Before they arrive, the Iraqi military abandons the town and avoiding conflict…
They are advancing forward with the support of Sunni tribes. Maliki administration had stayed out of conflict till now. This situation might create a presumption that Shia"s had given up on entire Iraq.
We can also think that, some part of the soldiers in the Iraqi army are belonging to the Sunni tribes and with the instructions from the tribes they might have dropped their guns and even joined the movement.
They have captured, an Arabic and oil region, Mosul. They"ve captured the refinery in Beyci. They"ve captured Saddam"s city Tikrit. They are headed for Samarra and Kirkuk. Most of the regions they"ve targeted are either Sunni or an oil-rich regions.
This is what"s happening: Sunni Arabs want a state and also want to get their share from Iraq"s wealth. This means: If Northern Iraq is heading towards independency, if Baghdad is playing the role of Shia, then Sunnis are heading towards a new political formation. The next step will mean the disintegration of the country. And I guess that will happen.
The missing man Izzet Ibrahim El Duri
There is a coalition in front of us. A Sunni region is coming forward between Kurds and Shias as a political existence. The appearance of some names, especially Izzet Ibrahim El Duri"s name, who has been incapturable since the Saddam period, is changing the nature of this incident and correct the image I described above.
El Duri being camouflaged in Syria for years and running the operations from there, is giving meaning to the rumors that ISIL is giving support to Bessar Esad from some regions. Though, please note that, the objective of this coalition is not only Iraq, and after some time they will come forth as a desire for a new state in the regions occupied by Sunni Arabs at Iraq and Syria.
If not scattered by an international coalition, the point this movement in question will reach is this: They will start a direct war against Shiahs. Other than small conflicts with Kurds, they will not clash. They won"t take the risk of clashing with Turkey. Their calculations and objectives are different: reuniting the Sunni regions under one roof, taking their shares from the oil resources and settling old scores with Shias.
Only in Kirkuk they might have a serious friction with the Kurds. If they get stronger, they will target Baghdad but won"t enter the regions occupied by Shias.
Sunni Arabic State project
In that case, if the developments are compressed under two notions like terror-Al Qaida within the sight of people watching these from Turkey, this might leave us blinded. A line will be drawn under the event if we perceive it as Al Qaida or terror, and comprehending what"s happening around us will become harder. Since it has been like this all along, we are unable to form sentences other than "Where did ISIL come from?"
Even if it doesn"t stick in our throat, the region has been separated in two fronts being Shia and Sunni. The saddest heritage left to us from the invasions and interventions was this. Eastern Front had retreated from the Iran border to Syria. Now the Sunni Arab world is constructing a new position at Iraq. This is big project. I don"t know how successful it might be but that, time will show us.
Though, we can describe the developments in the last couple of days as a new "Sunni Arabic State Project". If we disregard this project, which have the possibility to revolutionize the Iraq equation, we might continue to be surprised.
Who are behind this project? Of course, Sunni Arabic states along with the Gulf. We can solve the actors outside of the region by examining the countries. "Sunni bloc against the Shia Crescent", I guess, will be constructed in Iraq and Syria grounds.
By the way, the "hostage" incident directed towards the Turkish Consulate in Mosul shouldn"t have happened according to this table. Because as things stand, Turkey is not a prioritized target for them. This might be private a revenge of some organizations inside the structure in question or of some countries that support this structure.
But I think that this could be solved by the silent crisis method that Turkey is carrying out. At the least, I"m hoping for this.