Idlib is the Eastern Mediterranean. Idlib is the entirety of the Syrian war. The crisis in Idlib is not only a matter of one or a few terror groups. It is not a matter limited to who will establish dominance over an area of 7,000 square kilometers and how they will do it or whether the Damascus regime will establish control.
If almost all countries, nations that are in opposite poles regarding the Syria issue, are trying to intervene in this tiny region, if they are making plans through this intervention, if they have their hopes tied to this intervention, then the matter is much deeper and the plan is much more complex.
It is extremely thought-provoking that Russia and Iran and the U.S. and France are on the same page, hiding behind the pretext that there are “terror organizations there,” and seeking an opportunity to somehow attack Syria. The U.S., which says, “If the Damascus regime uses nuclear weapons, we will intervene,” and those saying, “Al-Nusra is in Idlib,” are hiding behind the same weak arguments.
The US-PKK invasion is dividing Syria, why aren't you saying anything about that?
It is extremely surprising that many countries, especially Russia and Iran, are keeping quiet, not saying a single word against invasion and not objecting to the terror corridor formed by the U.S., which holds a large portion of Syria, has occupied it with a terrorist organization and has amassed an extraordinary amount of weapons.
If Idlib belongs to Syria, then which country do the regions which constitute 30 percent of the country invaded by the U.S. and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) belong to? What other reality is there that threatens Syria's territorial integrity more than this? While northern Syria is under complete occupation, as a matter of fact, while the U.S. and PKK are settling into that area permanently, Idlib is being held under surveillance with the approval of the three countries that are developing a solution initiative for Syria.
These countries need to be asked whether it is Idlib's current status that is ruining Syria's territorial integrity. It is explicitly clear that resetting all this while Idlib has been secured under an agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran, excluded from clashes and turned into an asylum will harm both these three countries as well as Syria.
Russia harmed Turkey's trust…
Russia launching an attack prior to today’s Tehran Summit has disturbed Turkey. It has harmed the process started with Astana which is the sole hope of solution for Syria, and led to distrust. Turkey's attempts to "neutralize terrorist organizations through other means and find another solution" received no response, bringing the military option to the fore. This is perhaps the first time the trust forged between Turkey and Russia has been harmed in such a way during the Astana process.
The attacks launched ahead of the summit raised "serious doubts that Russia will not sufficiently regard Turkey's sensitivities." It is extremely important to overcome this damaged trust at once, with Moscow and Tehran taking steps aimed at keeping the joint initiative with Ankara strong while paying attention to Turkey's sensitivities within this context.
If Astana is harmed, everything will be over. The humanitarian disaster must be prevented.
Because, if the Astana process is harmed, everything may start all over again in Syria. The U.S. side will gain ground to start a new process that will reset all the progress made in the Syrian war. There is already a general acceptance and preparation in this direction.
The Damascus regime entering this region with ground forces following the air raids is going to lead to a humanitarian disaster that will then trigger a serious migration wave to Turkey and Europe, and cause a massacre similar to the one experienced in Aleppo. However, it cannot be said that the U.S., Russia or Iran pay much attention to humanitarian disasters. Turkey is the only country that prioritizes the protection and defense of the Syrian people above all else, while - according to the U.S. - Germany is striving to prevent a migration wave. This likely disaster must be prevented.
Turkey's observations points are under threat, the response will be harsh
The three leaders must certainly solve the Idlib matter during today's Tehran Summit and find a solution other than military intervention. Otherwise, this will lead to military interventions not only in Idlib but also across other Syrian locations, laying the foundations for a new kind of Syria war.
Turkey's observation points in Idlib are under threat. A possible attack on these points or a provocation by the Damascus administration or the PKK and other organizations that act in cooperation with the regime will be met with an extremely harsh reaction from Turkey - just as it should be. Russia and Iran must exert a great effort to prevent Turkey from falling into a difficult situation in this sense.
A military intervention in Idlib will create an opportunity for those seeking the division of the country. For the U.S., it will mean the completion of the “terror corridor” and a distraction while they establish protection for the PKK as conflicts in other areas arise. As a result, an intervention will buy time for the U.S. and the PKK.
West gate of the Terror Corridor: A major threat for Turkey…
The issue in Idlib is not the terrorist organizations there. The issue is the Eastern Mediterranean. Idlib's situation is critical for the Eastern Mediterranean, which is currently witnessing extraordinary military activity, where many countries are amassing their navies, where Russia and Turkey are conducting military drills and the sharing of trillions of dollars’ worth of natural gas are in question.
Who will take the reigns as the supervisor of the region is very important. The region located at the west gate of the terror corridor is critical for the U.S. and its allies that are trying to form a garrison spanning from Iranian border to the Mediterranean, and trying to connect northern Iraq to the Mediterranean. It is a protective shield for Turkey. If Idlib turns into a conflict area, Afrin will be in danger in terms of Turkey. And if Afrin is in danger, Hatay will be too. When Hatay is in danger, our entire presence in the Eastern Mediterranean will be in danger.
Erdoğan, Putin and Rouhani: This trio will find a solution
Regardless of what happens, the Idlib matter must be resolved without conflict or intervention. The Tehran Summit is a beacon of hope. The Turkey-Russia-Iran initiative is the only hope for Syria. The Astana initiative must not be harmed and should continue to serve as a hope for Syria.
The three countries must leave no gaps that will allow new interventions aimed at Syria. There is a strong expectation that Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani will agree on a solution and further strengthen the steps aimed at preserving Syria's territorial integrity.
Solutions for the Syria issue have always emerged from the leaders’ table, and it will be no different this time.