The attack conducted by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen against Saudi oil company Aramco is the most dangerous attack to date. It will have consequences much beyond the surge in oil prices. This attack turned the Yemen war into the Saudi Arabia war. It is now the strongest sign of the regional earthquake which was scripted as the Persian-Arab war.
The matter is no longer a Houthi issue. It is not a Yemen war either. The civil war in Yemen was already a Saudi-Iran war. But this truth is now out in the open; parties of the fight are going to start attacking one another more directly. After the attack, Saudis first stopped oil production, then reduced it to 50 percent. What the Saudi administration is capable of doing in the event of a new attack needs to be considered, and the regional and global consequences of this need to be evaluated.
As soon as the foreigners leave, we will attack again.
We are locked and loaded, we are focused on the target!”
The Houthis who declared they carried out the Aramco attack with 10 drones, released another statement yesterday claiming they are going to carry out new attacks and called on foreigners to "leave the area."
The likely suspect was Iran. Because the Houthis work with Iran. Just like Hezbollah and Hashd al-Shaabi. Even though the Saudi and United Arab Emirates (UAE) administration did not accuse it openly, the U.S. directly accused Iran. Such accusations rose from the U.S. administration that voices saying, "Let us strike Iran's oil facilities" grew louder.
When U.S. President Donald Trump said, "We are ready for war. Our weapons are locked and loaded. We are focused on the target," U.S. sources again claimed the attack was made using guided missiles. In addition to the Houthis, this claim directly puts Iran and the Hashd al-Shaabi organization in Iraq in the spotlight.
How was the Aramco crisis evaluated at the tripartite summit in Ankara?
The U.S. administration went even further. In their meetings with Russia, it was stated that it became clear the attack was not conducted from Iraq. According to Washington, the attack was made directly from Iranian territory.
The Houthis had hit Saudi Arabia's airbases in the past, targeted Jeddah on many occasions, and missiles were launched by air defense systems while flying over Mecca.
While the world was watching these reciprocal threats all day yesterday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani were holding both bilateral meetings and a tripartite summit in Ankara.
Every move in the region concerns Turkey
The main topic of the meeting was Idlib and Syria's future in general, however, it is possible to think that the three leaders turned this mounting tension into the priority topic of the agenda. Because Iran is the main target of the tension. Russia is now a regional country through Syria. Turkey is the only country that is at the center of every step taken in both Syria and the region.
Another shock wave took place while the Syria summit was taking place. Iran seized an oil tanker belonging to the UAE in the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody is taking a step back. Every action is further rising tensions.
The impression is that if Saudi Arabia makes a clear statement saying, "Iran conducted the strike" then the U.S. and Israel are going to attack Iran without wasting any time. Israel's increasing air attacks on Syria and Iraq in the last two months further fortify this theory.
The 'Arab-Persian border' is moving to the Arab continent
What will happen now?
1- The U.S.-Israel provocation will continue. This means that the indirect showdown between Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are going to continue to corner Iran using U.S. and Israeli power, while Iran will continue to strike Saudi Arabia through the forces affiliated with it in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
2- The U.S. and Israel's plans are to ready the region for a new Arab-Persian war, and they are not going to backtrack. All wars in the region since 1991 have been on Arab territory. And it was always Arab countries that were defeated.
Back then, the Arab-Persian border was the Iran-Iraq border. Then, this border was drawn to the Iraq-Syria border. Now, the Arab continent, Saudi Arabia is directly progressing towards the center of war.
US/Israel's 'Trojan horses.' The madness of the two Arab crown princes is going to burn the whole region to the ground...
3- The U.S. and Israel openly attacking Iran does not seem possible. The "Iran threat" for Saudis and Gulf countries is identified by the U.S., Israel and the U.K. This is further strengthened by Iran's actions.
4- Up until today I have written that, "Saudi Arabia is the actual target." I maintain the same opinion today. The continuation of the current state or an open war can lead to Saudi Arabia's division. The trap has been set against them.
5- Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are playing the "Trojan horses" of the U.S. and Israel's new regional war plan. They are trying to carry out absurd regional plans through these hawkish but naive crown princes. If they succeed, the price of this madness is going to be paid by the whole region. Every country in the region will be impacted.
'Provoking Iran, scaring the Saudis.' Conditions are expected to mature
6- Riyadh’s reaction against Iran's siege of Saudi Arabia from Yemen is a legitimate defense. But Iran's reactions against the Saudis and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council building up U.S. and Western armies on the Persian Gulf is also legitimate.
7- A scenario based on "provoking Iran and scaring the Saudis" has been written it is being performed. And they are settling scores with one another under this scenario. The result of this showdown will in no way be their war.
8- Unfortunately there is no mechanism that will dissuade them from this dangerous path or calm them down. Trump's statement, "We are locked and loaded, we are focused on the target," actually indicates that there is a waiting period for conditions to mature. It is now clear that they are going to elevate tensions in accordance with this aim.
This war will be strike the heart of the Saudis. Their major mistake: They lost Turkey
9- One step further would mean a new war in Lebanon and Iraq. This is how the war becomes regionalized. We can more or less guess the consequences regional countries will face, but it is now a fact that this war will strike the heart of Saudi Arabia.
10- The Saudi administration's biggest mistake in the circumstances of such a region was to stand against Turkey. The terror corridor they are trying to establish in the north of Syria together with the UAE, U.S. and Israel is actually a clear sign that they are openly in an anti-Turkey front and carrying on a war.
11- Those identifying the "Iran threat" for themselves also identified a "Turkey threat" and believed in it. Not only did they believe it, they started attacking Turkey regionally and from within the country itself. The Saudi administration that does not see Turkey by its side in a likely regional storm will have no chance.
Two Iranian missiles for Dubai: the UAE would be obliterated
12- The UAE stands as the main base off the anti-Turkey sentiment. There can be nothing more irrational than this country, which is trying to get Saudis to clash with Iran, risking war with Iran. Two Iranian missiles striking Dubai will leave neither an economy or the UAE in its wake.
13- The Syria war has turned into a world war. Syria was the knot of the whole region; the knot was untied and cannot be retied. But this time, the scenario being played out is one that will completely destroy the connection between the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
The invasion of the region, Western armies flocking to the region
14- Call it the "Arab-Persian war" or the "Islamic civil war." We can also say it is the "Invasion of the entire region." Because this would be a war that cannot be won by any country in the region. But it will end with the destruction of the entire region and Western armies spreading throughout it.
Then we will lament over the consequences we face because of the imbeciles in the region.