The Nidaa Tounes party emerged on top in yesterday’s elections in Tunisia, which was the country where the Arab Spring first started and succeeded. The Ennahda Movement, that counts the legendary campaigner Rachid Ghannoushi as one of its founders, came second in the elections.
Although there isn’t much difference between them it was, however, expected that Ennahda would come out on top. If we factor in that Nidaa Tounes, with its popular and vibrant constituency, was facing off against Ennahda’s settled constituency that also has the most organized structure in place in that country, we can say that the election results were a reflection of the trends in the region as a whole, even if was to a minor extent.
Regardless of the winner, what is important for the Middle East is not the victory of any party but the victory of democracy. The main goal is the democratization of the country and even the entire region, rather than any political party emerging as a frontrunner.
The “Tunisian Democracy Model” will now replace the “Tunisian Model” made popular by the oppressive regime of Habib Bourguiba, and we hope that this struggle for democracy will be a long-lasting one. Otherwise the possibility exists that the country might again shift toward an authoritarian-leaning structure under the impact of recent regional tremors.
As a result it becomes the priority of all those that want the entire region to be rescued from violent and oppressive regimes to provide maximum backing for the elections in Tunisia and the march toward democracy. Similar to the backing provided for the Arab Spring and free elections, efforts need to be made to ensure this culture of democracy spreads from Tunisia to the entire region and is considered as a model.
We are aware that this trend faces serious dangers. The reemergence of authoritarian trends that are nourished domestically might be witnessed initially. Take note that these authoritarian trends will gain more support externally rather than domestically. Western democracies, uneasy with the democratization of the region, will back these authoritarian trends.
Oppressive Arab regimes and Western countries will try all means at their disposal to make the Tunisian democracy model fail and thereby prevent it from setting a “bad example” for the region.
Why am I constantly placing emphasis on the entire region? The Arab Spring was an opportunity. The masses had taken to the streets to protest the tutelage regimes and oppressive administrations of the 20th century. They wanted freedom, democracy and prosperity. Regional countries and western nations waged a major campaign and sabotaged this process. They tried to convert this societal trend into an opportunity for themselves and direct it. Calls for democracy were replaced by calls for a coup in Tahrir Square. This represented major success for them. This campaign that they carried out by citing the fear that “Islamists will emerge” was actually the fear of “democracy” emerging.
This is why the process was sabotaged in Yemen, turned upside down in Egypt, and left to the mercy of violence in Syria. The regimes that have bought power by selling the resources of the region for years attained immense success in this endeavor and the great change has been put on hold for now. The regimes of the Middle East and Western democracies displayed great solidarity in their extraordinary resistance to democracy.
This solidarity continues. A finely tuned strategy is being implemented to destroy freedom and democracy movements whilst making use of regional countries. Whether this has had any impact on the Tunisian elections, and the extent of it can only be debated after some time has elapsed.
I do suppose, however, that those that have joined together in solidarity are hard at work to ensure that the country reverts to authoritarianism and doesn’t have any impact on the region.
It is very difficult to be able to see all this without comprehending all the distortion in the region. There are two types of regional war in the Middle East: The first is the fight of the Arab world to diminish Iran’s impact, and the other is again the joint fight by the same group to prevent the spread of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In this aspect, the Arab regimes are waging war against both the Shia Crescent and the Muslim Brotherhood Crescent. Arab nationalism and Islamism are both crassly made use of in this war. While the war against Iran is being waged on the Iraq-Syria front and in the Gulf, there is a global partnership to eradicate the Muslim Brotherhood, similar to the attempt in Egypt.
Let me explain the picture in the following manner: Iran’s sphere of influence in Yemen is via the Houthis, in Iraq it is via the Baghdad administration, in Syria it is via the Assad regime and in Lebanon it is via Hezbollah. The fight for influence is also strong in Bahrain that has a majority Shia population and Gulf countries with considerable Shia populations.
During Saddam Hussein’s time the Iraq-Iran border was also the Arab-Iran border. In the wake of Iraq’s occupation, the eastern border of the Arabs was drawn back to Syria. Now there is a power struggle over Syria and in one aspect this is an Arab-Persian war.
The Arab regimes are waging an open fight by employing organizations to stop this spread and push back the border into Iraqi territory. In this aspect, the ISIL issue can to an extent be viewed as an example. In return, Iran is fighting to convince the Kurds to engage in a showdown with ISIL on the one hand, and on the other is making use of all its military assets to wage war via the Baghdad administration’s army. A total regional war lies behind the clashes between organizations financed by Gulf countries and organizations and forces under Iran’s control.
It is the Muslim Brotherhood and structures that are influenced by it. It has the most powerful organized structure, cadres, and opposition discourse in the entire Arab belt, ranging from Sudan to Syria.
The whole world is aware that these regions will become a sort of Muslim Brotherhood belt in the near future. That is why the power struggle within the region also includes the Muslim Brotherhood in the same measure that it is applied to the “Iran threat.”
While, on one hand, the Arab regimes, monarchies and authoritarian administrations work to reduce Iran’s sphere of influence, they also try, on the other hand, to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood and deal with the “Muslim Brotherhood threat.” The campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood in particular receives unconditional and unquestioned backing from the United States and Europe.
The slogans “Islamist wave” or “Islamist danger” find many backers in western capitals. This is why the intervention in Egypt was so brutal. The Muslim Brotherhood was removed from power and put into prison. A martial administration was preferred. What we witnessed in Egypt was in every sense an intervention on a global level.
However, the real fear that lies behind the fear of the Muslim Brotherhood is the fear of democracy. It is the Muslim Brotherhood discourse and its cadres that have integrated democratic culture the most within their setup in the Arab world. The regimes are well aware that the winds of change blowing as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood wave are the winds of democracy, and as a result have formed an alliance with the Western world depicting it as the “fear of Islamism.”
The entire region is experiencing the final stages of despotic regimes trying to stay on their feet. It is impossible for regimes to resist for long when they get backing from the West founded on their “fear of Islam.” At the moment they are engaged in a fight based on their fear of Iran. But they will attempt to spread the morale boost they received by their actions in Egypt to the entire region. The march toward democracy in Tunisia represents the most vital danger to them. They will want to stop this march. In all probability they will attempt ploys of some manner, concerning the post-election formation of a government.
We are receiving an object lesson on how the regimes are stealthily waging war to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and democracy from gaining a foothold in the region while hiding behind the Iranian danger card. The regimes’ fear of Islam and the campaign by the neocons and the extreme right in Israel to globally spread their “Islamic threat” slogan get their nourishment from the same source.
Both segments are extremely scared that democratization and freedom might come to the region. Because if that happens the game will be up and the 100-year-long rule by tutelage will come to an end.
It is at exactly this point that Turkey is issuing a call to the entire region and the world, and thereby encouraging hope for the 21st century. This is the only reason behind all these arrows being pointed at Turkey.
