With a wisely planned strategy, they are advancing towards being a state as they start to designate borders and maps. At the same time, they are forming a political power in accordance with Iraq"s demographic structure, ethnical and religious identity.
They are following a strategy that has the quality to rip through Iran"s strategic solidarity line, which reaches to Lebanon via Syria, right in the middle and separate this line from the Iraqi lands. They are taking control of critical regions that are in a direct line with this objective.
They are following a method that is aimed at getting rid of the Iran threat and Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf countries" fear of Iran. They are able to tear down the charismas of both Iran and the Iran-supported government at Baghdad. Iran, who always got the best of every intervention in the region since 1991, is now facing loss and failure for the first time after more than 20 years.
This not a religious war, rather it"s an Arabic-Persian war
As I always say, this incident, which we perceive with the fear of a religious war, is actually an Arabic-Persian war that we are witnessing. This war has been dragging on for the last 30 years following the Arabic-Israeli wars and tore down the whole region. But for some reason, we are not even forming a single sentence related with this war. Ethnical clashes, religious conflicts and invasions are preventing us from seeing this massive war that makes its presence felt in every corner of the geography. Because of this, we are discussing the crisis with completely different arguments, reasons and formats.
With such a geography reading and a point of view tuned to both religion and organization obsession, it"s not possible to talk about the future of the region. Even though we might not like it, we need to see the reality, act accordingly to this reality and take rational steps.
ISIL incident is a strategy that is prepared with extreme caution. It"s not the mind of an organization; rather it"s a state mind. Probably, this strategy has more potential to change the power and political map of the region than the Iraq invasion. Because a new phase had begun in the Arabic-Persian war that has been going on for years. This is a new war… This is a war to restrain Iran at the Iraqi grounds and to draw the Arabic world"s eastern borders on the Iraqi lands once again.
Therefore, no one should underestimate this clash and ISIL incident. Whether terror or not. Whether organization or not. Whether Al-Qaida or not. These are secondary discussions. When we analyze the developments in the sense of these notions, we will narrow down our horizons
ISIL will fight with Syria as well
It"s been said, "ISIL is acting together with the Damascus administration." It has been claimed that Syria is oppressing the opposition. It might be correct. A cyclical partnership is possible. But the nature of this is indicating that this movement will clash with Damascus after Iraq. The news about Syrian aircrafts bombing the ISIL militants at the beginning of the week might be an indicator of this.
Don"t forget; Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus and the Hizbullah axis had taken the lead in the Syria war. The impact of the front that supported the opposition in Syria had weakened with this axis" joint war. The support of the Western countries had remained unfulfilled and the Damascus-Tehran alliance had stepped forward. ISIL"s activation happened right at this moment. I"m not sure whether the timing is important or not, but it"s obvious that it has directly targeted the axis in question.
Initially, a clash with Kurds and Turkey is not in question. A project, involving Iraq"s Sunni regions and Syria"s Sunni regions, is being carried out. As long as Iran"s and Nuri el Maliki"s completely discriminating approach that is directed at the sectarian identity continues, then these clashes will deepen. Following this, establishing a reconciliation government in Iraq will become impossible.
I"ve said before: taking Turks as hostage might be another project to either immobilize Turkey or affect the internal politics.
Pay attention to the Turkey-Northern Iraq partnership!
Concentrating on the possible consequences after understanding the incident, is the most important thing to do at the moment. Of course, it will be hard for people, who cannot even see the newly developing map, to make calculations for the aftermath. Iraq"s integrity is our common desire. But speaking of such integrity no longer seems possible. Turkey"s mobility is limited on this matter. Discrimination is happening and this discrimination will unavoidably, deeply affect Turkey"s regional policies.
We should especially pay attention to the relations between Ankara and Northern Iraq. New conditions are steering Erbil away from Baghdad. I"m not of the opinion that Baghdad is worried about this. They are prioritizing keeping a small Shiite administration in their hands rather than working on keeping the integrity of Iraq. Secretly, they also desire this disintegration. Kurds and Sunni Arabs also desire so. In short, actually, everyone had accepted this reality one way or another and it seems unlikely that they will show any effort to live together.
During the forthcoming periods, there might be radical developments between Turkey and Northern Iraq. An amazing intimacy might occur and massive energy might be unleashed. Generally, I don"t think that Turkey will have difficulty with Iraq"s Sunnis. I"m of the opinion that Turkey"s state mind had already evaluated all these and reviewed a set of "radical calculations" for the future.
It"s best to handle, the conducting of the package, which is directed at keeping the Resolution Process alive, to the council yesterday, under the light of these developments mentioned above. Ankara-Erbil intimacy will strengthen the resolution process greatly, while on the other hand it will weaken the internal sabotages against the process. Today"s conjuncture is providing the need for keeping the resolution process alive. Unless an extraordinary regional alteration happens, this process will be successful.
From this day on, Turkey and Northern Iraq relations will become a global center of attention, instead of only involving these two countries. Also, the attitudes of Iran and the ones that intervene to the region from the West regarding this matter will also be remarkable.
ISIL will also overthrow Esad…
ISIL is neither an organization, nor a terror incident. It"s transforming into a regional incident from merely being an Iraq incident. Iran"s and Western countries" intervention on the developments is amounting to a new victory for Tehran. The purge of Sunni Arabs one more time will be the historical victory of the centerline that extends from Tehran to Beirut.
If it"s a regional incident, if it"s breaking down Iran"s axis inside Iraq, the Damascus administration will become the second target for ISIL, or the power that will fill ISIL"s gap.
Note this down somewhere… But of course don"t brush aside my "Turkish-Kurdish-Sunni" formula that I"ve been writing about for a while now…