A war of geography is being waged “by resorting to organizations” all the way from Nigeria to Afghanistan. This reality, to which not many are paying attention, is actually the most important pillar of a scenario for spreading chaos and destruction in the 21st century.
The region generally defined as the “Muslim belt,” and which forms the principal axis of the planet, contains energy resources, energy corridors, maritime navigation routes and land-based trade routes.
This means that most of the planet’s resources and geo-economic corridors are situated in this belt. Simply due to this it becomes the scene of power struggles and fights to create spheres of influence among core powers, and almost every country establishes a forward front in this belt.
These fronts are established by resorting to old authoritarian regimes i.e. old friends, outdated leaderships created as a result of external intervention like the Egyptian junta, and most importantly by resorting to organizations that have been spread throughout the region. Weakened regimes are either discarded and left to the mercy of organizations or, as in Egypt, they are kept on their feet through old-fashioned coup d’états.
MAIN REASON FOR THE CHAOS SCENARIO
It wouldn’t go amiss to note that Western countries, to a major extent, are intervening much more forcefully in the belt compared to World War I, tearing apart countries, destabilizing them and attempting to create mini city states. Many countries will be forced to face up to similar scenarios in the future.
Apart from divvying up the resources and economic corridors, there is another very important reason behind such intervention: The emergence of a discourse and protest which will wreak havoc on the calculations made by global powers in regard to their plans for the Islamic belt in the 21st century. Herein lies the main reason for the intervention we are currently experiencing becoming ever more ruthless in the future.
For the first time since World War I an uprising was imminent and an awareness of emancipation developed, and this awareness reached a level where it could upset all political and economic calculations. Outdated local power structures no longer sufficed as the instruments of tutelage. And it was no longer possible to convince the masses and regenerate these regimes.
Struggles launched for freedom, welfare and justice were perceived as the greatest threats. This is because if these struggles achieved their aims, the tutelage that was imposed throughout the 20th century would be uprooted, and for the first time Western countries would be driven out of the region.
The primary focus of intervention in the region currently is to dissolve centralized powers, shatter their dominion, and create long-term chaos. If you look carefully, you will see that organizations are being pushed to the forefront and strengthened as much as possible in the area I have mentioned, and clashes are being expanded in a manner that they overlap with the chaos scenario.
FREEDOM STRUGGLE OR FIGHT AGAINST ORGANIZATIONS?
Following the occupation of Iraq in 2003, the centralized leadership was weakened and the country was completely abandoned to the whims of organizations. There was no attempt, in any manner, which focused on a solution and stability for that country. Twelve years have passed since the occupation, and wars between organizations have taken an untold number of lives.
According to United Nations data, 1,375 people, 790 of whom were civilians, lost their lives in January alone. Another 790 people were injured. This figure, however, does not include the death toll among organizations, ISIL in particular. There are those who claim that the total number of fatalities exceeds 5,000.
Can there be any mention of a state in a country where the monthly fatalities are so high? In this aspect, Iraq has been made into a prime example for the chaos scenario.
A similar, actually far worse, situation exists in Syria. The war between the Damascus regime and the opposition has stopped being a war between two fronts for quite a while now, and has been transformed into a war where organizations dominate. The country has become a clash zone between Iran and other powers that resort to Hezbollah and ISIL respectively. Syria, far from being the scene of a freedom struggle, has succumbed to a war between organizations.
The situation in both Iraq and Syria will remain like this for a long time yet. If you look carefully, you will see that the powers interfering in the region have no suggestions for a solution in either country and have no project to bring about stability. On the one hand, they back these organizations, and on the other hand, they create an image that shows them purportedly fighting these same organizations. It is this hypocritical game that reveals the chaos theory.
YEMEN WILL BE THIRD VICTIM OF WAR OF ORGANIZATIONS
There are two countries faced with the threat of “Syrianization.” I am certain that such an atmosphere will quickly be generated in two countries within a few years. They are Yemen and Egypt.
Yemen, which is the recent past experienced a coup by the Iran-backed Houthis, has been the scene of a power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for a long time. There were times when Saudi Arabia intervened directly. The fight was generally conducted via organizations though.
In the coming days Yemen might experience extraordinary developments and be the scene of a fight between opposing organizations or powers. Following that, spiraling clashes will ensue and the chaos will last for years. This is exactly the climate that the United States and Western countries, which prevented the toppling of the regime, had targeted. Yemen will be the third victim of the chaos scenario.
PAY CAREFUL ATTENTION TO EGYPT; THE BROTHERHOOD WON’T FALL INTO THIS TRAP
The country that we perhaps need to pay the most attention to these days is Egypt. The same Egypt where the Arab Spring and the Tahrir Square uprising were experienced, but where the struggle for democracy and freedom was curtailed through foreign cooperation. Those who preferred the junta to the democracy narrative of the Muslim Brotherhood took the first step toward the “Syrianization” of the country.
A narrative called “active resistance,” the author of which is unknown, has come to prominence recently, and a claim has been made that the Brotherhood will “shift to armed resistance.” Whereas, the Brotherhood had paid a heavy price in the past during the time of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat, and Husni Mubarak as well but didn’t change its approach. Groups that splintered from the Brotherhood took up arms; however, the Brotherhood never strayed from its democratic narrative. It was via such a narrative that it grew in power right across the region from Sudan to Iraq as a cooperative opposition movement.
Now some people are trying to exploit the Brotherhood to open the door to organizational conflict, similar to that seen in Syria and Iraq. This is the gravest danger facing Egypt. Regardless of the extent to which we oppose the junta, defend a free Egypt to our last breath, and stand by the martyrs of the Brotherhood; we know that such a conflict will transform Egypt into one of the chaos countries we are concerned about.
We also know that a Brotherhood that adopts such a path will take on a role similar to that of ISIL. The Brotherhood won’t fall into such a trap; however, new structures that splinter from it might become instruments aiding such a scenario.
I perceive the clashes in the Sinai Peninsula to be a dangerous covert operation intended for such a purpose. The dragging of a regional core country like Egypt into this chaos scenario as well is an indicator that Turkey and Iran’s turn will come too.
MAKING TURKEY THE FIFTH COUNTRY…
The scenarios implemented during the past few years in Turkey to instigate a change in leadership were not for nothing. The expression “Let’s turn it into a Ukraine, if that fails let’s turn it into an Egypt, and if that fails as well let’s ‘Syrianize’ it” did not just appear out of the blue.
We, on the contrary, are trying to keep Turkey strong in the face of such destructive scenarios and are trying to reverse the ill-fated winds blowing in the region and transform them into a force. The political narrative emerging from Turkey represents the fiercest determination against the chaos scenario. We should know that they have scenarios in reserve to strike at the capital from which this narrative emerges.
We are well aware that if successful they will attempt to pick Turkey as the fifth victim.
