The Taliban has taken control of Kabul. They are now at the helm in Afghanistan. US influence over Central Asia has collapsed. Iranian intelligence cooked up an 'Afghan crisis' for Turkey - İBRAHIM KARAGÜL

The Taliban has taken control of Kabul. They are now at the helm in Afghanistan. US influence over Central Asia has collapsed. Iranian intelligence cooked up an 'Afghan crisis' for Turkey

Following the sudden withdrawal of the U.S., the Taliban swiftly started taking control over Afghanistan. It seized states, border gates, and cities at a lightning sweep. It settled on the Uzbek, Kyrgyz, and Iranian borders reaching Kabul. Then, as of Sunday, it arrived at the outskirts of Kabul. 

The U.S.-established Kabul administration is panicking; because when Kabul fell, they had nothing to hold on to. Hence, evacuation preparations had already started days before. The fate of U.S.-appointed Afghan politicians and diplomats residing in Kabul remains ambiguous. 


Taliban: Revenge will not be exacted

Taliban fighters, who entered Kabul yesterday, were ordered to refrain from committing any acts of violence, allow safe passage to everyone who chooses to leave the city, and transport women to safe zones. This slightly appeased fears. 

A notice released on Sunday states, “The Islamic Emirate instructs all its forces to stand at the gates of Kabul, not to try to enter the city. We do not intend to exact revenge on anyone. All those who have served the government and military will be forgiven.” 


Panic ensues in Kabul: Those in cooperation with the US fear for their lives

Those who have been in cooperation with the intruding U.S. since 2001 fear for their lives. Kabul is no longer safe for tens of thousands of refugees. 

Kabul’s diplomats are seeking ways to flee the country. Some of them crossed over yesterday into Pakistan. Low-level staff are, however, in a state of complete panic. They are afraid to be declared as traitors, because they were all working in cooperation with invading forces. 

There seems to be no force left in Afghanistan to stand against the Taliban. Nobody resisted either. In fact, provincial centers transferred control without conflict taking place. The army established by the U.S. turned out to be useless. It did not resist anywhere. They left their bases in masses to the Taliban. Military armament and weapons were delivered to the Taliban, too. 


The Taliban did not return! The US failed in two great regions. 

Western countries such as the U.S., the U.K, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden are vacating their embassies as if all hell broke loose. Some sent military units to evacuate their citizens in the country. Regardless of what they do from now on, the U.S. and Europe cannot possibly resist anymore. 

Those who invaded Afghanistan in 2001, who established a regime and military, the U.S. and Western militaries that committed massacres on live broadcasts, saying, “We finished off the Taliban,” stole two decades from Afghanistan. They’re currently saying, “The Taliban is back.” And stronger than ever. 

The “Karzai model” the U.S. tried to implement in the countries it invaded has failed. The Central Asian and Middle East invasion and regime-switching projects the U.S. launched under the guise of the Sept. 11 attacks, carrying out history's gravest human slaughters in Iraq, all failed. 

The Taliban did not really “return”! The U.S. collapsed in two great regions. This is the real issue! 


The US failed geopolitically. It’s high time we discuss this

In the present case, instead of discussing the Taliban’s advance, and what will happen to Afghanistan, it is time to ascertain and discuss the U.S.’s defeats, geopolitical failures, the collapse of its regime change and “nation creation” projects, the loss of its power in the world’s central region, and that this loss will only spiral.

As the Taliban’s advance continues, Afghanistan’s neighbors are also trying to figure out where they stand. China and Russia will recognize the Taliban administration. Countries like India will recognize it as well. Surely, the U.S. and Europe will also recognize it sometime later. 

The situation in Afghanistan transcends both the Taliban and the Kabul administration, because a critical regional balance is in question. It seems that behavior toward the Taliban will diverge from what it was in 2001. There will be attempts to reach an agreement with them instead of engaging in conflict. 


Al-Qaida, Taliban were mere excuses. The US was building a ‘Western Garrison’ in Asia

Afghanistan is Central Asia’s southern gate. All empires throughout history tried to take control over this location. None could succeed. The Soviet Union invaded the country in 1979. Russia almost reached the Indian Ocean. After Afghanistan, it was planning to invade Pakistan. But this invasion led to the collapse of the Soviets. 

The U.S. invaded it in 2001. Al-Qaida and Taliban were mere excuses. The U.S. was going to build a powerful “Western Garrison” in the south of Russia, and close to China. It was taking a major geopolitical step in Central Asia and South Asia. 

The West was invading the region a second time as Alexander the Great. It was building the most important fortress of the global empire. It was settling in the Russia-India-China triangle, positioning itself in the middle of three great countries. The U.S. ventured to build a global empire. 


The US lost Central Asia in the ‘Third Big Game’ 

But that too failed. The truth is, the American defeat in Afghanistan has been one of the most critical factors impacting its regress. First, it was the Soviets that lost, now it is the U.S. It will certainly face the grave consequences of this invasion. 

The U.S. did not lose in Afghanistan alone. In fact, the U.S., along with Europe, lost in Central Asia. It lost in its plans to siege Russia and restrain China. 

If the invasion plans had nothing to do with the Taliban and Al-Qaida, if the invasion plans are not limited to Afghanistan, the consequences of its defeat will not be limited to the Taliban and Afghanistan. 

The “Great Game” of political history took shape between Russia and the U.K., through Afghanistan and its near abroad. This was the “First Great Game.” The Soviet invasion was the “Second Great Game.” The U.S. invasion was the “Third Great Game.” 


Those seeking to keep Turkey away from the region are plotting

Now the game is being set all over again. Russia, China, India, the U.S., the U.K., Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran are going to take their places in this game. However, it is now a fact that the U.S. and Europe will not be able to establish any influence over Afghanistan for a very long time. 

Turkey’s Afghanistan policy is going to gain significant prominence. Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan are going to cooperate closely with Turkey on Afghanistan. Following the war in Libya and Karabakh, Turkey’s partnerships in Central Asia and Afghanistan are going to gain prominence. 

The ”Afghan refugee” issue is entirely related to this power struggle. Those who are seeking to ward Turkey away from the region are plotting inside the country. They are investing in putting pressure on Turkey’s public opinion. This is not a matter of refugees but rather a power struggle through refugees. 


Iran is the source of the ‘Afghan’, ‘Syrian’ refugee provocation. 

We need to pay close attention to Iran concerning the provocations in Turkey centered around Syrian and Afghan refugees. They are being flamed and controlled through Iran’s affiliates in Turkey. The goal is to back Turkey into a corner in Syria and Afghanistan, and tie its hands. 

As such, Iran may be launching the “indirect war with Turkey” strategy that it has been implementing in Syria (as seen in Aleppo), in Afghanistan as well. In fact, if the chaos spirals out of control, Iran may get involved in Afghanistan. 

Under these circumstances, Turkey may be entering into a joint operation with Turkic Republics in the country’s north (South Turkestan), preparing for this. 


Beware of Iran’s elements inside Turkey! 

Unfortunately, they are attacking our close relations in Afghanistan and Central Asia from inside Turkey itself. Some political parties, Iran’s elements within may turn this into a national security issue, political instability. This requires urgent measures. 

The project “to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and stop Turkey” is a global project. The U.S. and Europe repeatedly tried to achieve this. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia tried it too. This time it’s Iran’s turn. 

The public must urgently be informed about the Syrian and Afghan refugee matter, and measures must be taken in this respect. 


Nobody can stand in Turkey’s way. Neither at home, now abroad

The U.S. is collapsing in Central Asia and in the Middle East. It is collapsing in Africa. It is concentrating all its power on Southeast Asia, and remaining in defense mode. Turkey is going to stand out as the 21st century’s surprise power. It already has. 

Afghanistan does not just signify Afghanistan. It is not only the Taliban. Afghanistan signifies Central Asia; it means South Asia. It cannot be reduced to a simple “refugee” debate. It cannot be reduced to Iranian intelligence and its affiliates within. We cannot allow them to strike us in both Syria and Afghanistan. 

They were supporting Armenia in the Karabakh war. They are supporting Greece in the Aegean. They were supporting Khalifa Haftar and France in Libya. They were supporting the U.S. and Europe in the East Mediterranean. Thus, they will never support Turkey – never have and never will. 

We will not allow anybody to stand in Turkey’s way. Neither at home nor abroad. Otherwise, we will lose this century completely. Turkey has several major plans. 

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