Regardless of the country or what anyone says, as a basic principle, “foreign intervention” is, without exception, a threat; it is dangerous and a situation that needs to be opposed. Because all efforts of change imposed, forced and controlled from the outside destroy that country; they never have peaceful intentions and lead to endless instabilities.
Regardless of the country in our region, every country that the U.S., Israel and the U.K. have touched have fallen into chaos, collapsed, became divided and their maps have changed or are changing. Those countries were made the targets of remote-controlled terrorism and pushed into a corner with the most natural discourses of democracy and freedom.
Iran scenario: The situation is serious!
Because “foreign intervention” or “foreign backing” has always had a special agenda; those countries’ weaknesses have been abused for this agenda.
For the time being, it is unclear where the protests that started in Iran and rapidly spread will lead to or whether it will continue for a while and then end. These protests have no ethnic distinction; it has taken on a political identity after starting out for economic reasons and has led to rumors around the world that “the regime is collapsing.”
Yet, the situation is serious and especially the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is further feeding this tension. The open support of almost the entire Western world, primarily the U.S. and Israel, indicates an “Iran scenario” intention through protest demonstrations.
It started in cities where the conservative, Persian identity is prevalent
The rage starting in Iran’s conservative cities, particularly in cities where the Persian identity is dominant is extremely interesting. At least part of those ethnic circles, like Arabs, Azeris and Kurds, joined the protests later. Hence, the situation is not an ethnic issue, it is an issue between the people of Iran and the system/regime.
The stress that exacerbated with economic problems, embargos, and the regime’s pressures has erupted. The economic bottleneck and defense expenses by Iran’s cross-border military interventions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have disturbed the masses, distressed them and caused outrage. Slogans such as, “We don’t care about Lebanon or Syria,” are a reflection of this.
Iran’s expansion map: If you burn someone’s house, they will hunt you down at home
It seems that while Iran was pursuing an expansion map to the Red Sea, while it was sieging Saudi Arabia from Yemen, erecting a wall for Israel in Lebanon, displeasing the entire Sunni Arab world in Syria, causing mass destruction and suffering in Aleppo, scoffing at warnings that “this expansion will isolate Iran in its own region,” it has been hunted down at home.
I remember that back then we had said, “The time will come when there will be nobody in this region to wipe away Iran’s tears.” I remember saying, “If you intervene in someone else’s home, they will cause chaos in your home, strike you there.”
Because this is how it has always been. Threats are directed inside. You fight it and repel it from the inside. The thread is positioned in the surroundings, from outside. You turn to your surroundings, to outside for intervention. Right at that moment, the threat will be redirected to the inside, to the country’s nervous system. Our region is used to such tactics and such methods of the West. Decades have passed with such struggles. The recent struggle in question has further intensified.
Tehran’s ‘strong region’ strategy is collapsing
Iran was not expecting any internal problems. It was so strong that it could intervene much beyond its borders. This had given the Tehran administration extreme confidence. The “powerful Iran” policy was replaced by the “strong region” policy. Iran had now completed the era of strengthening itself and had turned to the powerful Iran in the region strategy. Following the Syrian war, this strategic change by Tehran was sensed in the entire region.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia in particular had built a new axis with Israel and the U.S. with this “danger” as their excuse, and called it the “fight against the Iran axis.” The fundamental goal of the new formation called the Arab-Israeli alliance was to restrain Iran. However, at the point reached, restraining Turkey was revealed as another main agenda of the axis in the latest Jerusalem issue.
Iran’s weakest point revealed
It was predicted that with this new axis, the U.S. and Israel would start the fight against Iran in Yemen and Lebanon. They were openly targeting Iran, but it wasn’t thought that the agenda would be activated inside Iran. It was surprising. Regardless of how powerful it becomes on the outside, it has been revealed once more that Iran’s weakest point is within.
The partnership carried out to by Turkey, Iran and Russia to end the Syrian war, to prevent Iraq’s division weakened Saudi Arabia’s power in the region and turned upside down all of the U.S. and Israel’s plans in the region. This had to be avenged, and this revenge would not be limited to Iran only.
Could Turkey be the next step?
Hence, if they are targeting Iran today, it should be noted that Turkey could also be a target next.
There is a very serious separation, an extremely dangerous showdown ongoing between actors outside the region and their partners in the region with the current rapport between the trio. There is a revival climate, a dynamic struggle from Turkey toward the East, toward Iran, Pakistan and, as a matter of fact, all the way to Indonesia to separate from the West axis.
It is also useful to follow the U.S.’s clashes with Pakistan. Soon, there might be other countries joining this close stance, and they should. Hence, it should be known that the showdown will further intensify.
If the uprising rehearsals ongoing in Iran today succeed, it would be the success of the UAE-Saudi-Israeli-U.S. axis. This axis’ Turkey agenda is obvious. The July 15 attacks were U.S. and Israel-based and were fully supported by the UAE.
US and Israel trying to control the fury
Even today the same circles’ Turkey operations are ongoing. The Gezi incidents, Dec. 17-25 and July 15 were multinational interventions and were carried out with partners inside Turkey. Admitting the “legitimate justifications” of the Iranian people, the existence of such a danger must also be taken into consideration.
The U.S.’s Iran agenda is normally not applicable. No change in the region, especially with U.S. President Donald Trump’s view, will be healthy; its success is also almost impossible. I don’t think Washington has a strong project aimed at a “regime change” in Iran. They are trying to achieve something from the displeasure and outrage on the inside, to set a game through it, to lay claim to it and control it.
This will poison the Iranian nation’s legitimate demands. It will divert the protests from their goals and even doom it to failure. But they are going to continue this. I am sure that the UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed has activated the “revolt in Iran fund” through all the channels he could reach. Something like this can lead to Tehran turning its rage toward the UAE once the protests are over.
What will happen to Turkey if Iran collapses?
There is no doubt that Iran is ethnically a more fragile country than Turkey and the region’s countries. Despite this, discussing the situation based on its ethnic or sectarian identity will lead us all to very wrong results. It would be healthier to discuss it based on the power showdown in the region, the West’s new region design and the geopolitical war. The Syrian war was started to open the “Turkey front.” Nobody should forget July 15. That attack was an intervention to divide Turkey. We cannot be defeated once more by the sentimentalism that was mobilized for the Syria war.
The warning that shocked Tehran and ‘Countercoup’
I recommend Kermit Roosevelt’s book titled “Countercoup.” It tells of how the CIA toppled Mosaddegh. It is correct that the Iranian revolution entered a dead-end and that it collapsed. Social motivation was lost; it has been revealed that the Iranian public was unhappy with the military activity outside, this is also correct. If Iran is going to change, it must change with its own dynamics.
A new Mosaddegh operation from the outside will divide Iran. However, even if this is what the West has in mind, at a time when the local resistance it at its highest, this is not very possible.
Surely an outrage is a warning to the Iranian administration. Expansionist policies, targeting Saudi Arabia, extreme self-confidence has thrown the “house of Iran” into the fire. This is what is shocking for Tehran.