Armenian attacks on Azerbaijan’s Tovuz region are targeting energy geopolitics, of which Turkey is at the center. In this sense, the nature of the attack goes far beyond Armenia’s impertinence.
It is not limited to the matter between Azerbaijan and Armenia; the signs of a new “multinational scenario” are apparent. The energy negotiations, showdowns in the East Mediterranean and even conflicts are being moved to the south of the Caucasus.
Armenia becomes the north’s terrorist organization
All the parties of the energy equation in the East Mediterranean, of the geopolitical power showdown in the Mediterranean are a part of it. The attack is directly linked to the situation in Libya, Syria, and the energy resources in the Mediterranean.
Armenia was only assigned a small part of this great showdown; this country has been assigned the task of a terror organization. This is the exact same mission that was given to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Daesh in Iraq and Syria. It is no different to the mission tasked to terror baron Khalifa Haftar in Libya.
The project’s second stage
The reason for Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh and Azerbaijani territory is the present situation. At that time, Russia and Iran collaborated with Armenia in efforts to isolate Turkey and the Turkic world from each other, and define the balance to be established over the Caspian’s energy resources all the way back then.
The current attack is the second stage of these efforts. They are turning towards Azerbaijani territory once again, striving to negate and sabotage all the projects implemented in the fields of oil, natural gas and transportation corridors since then. This time, some countries from the Atlantic circle, such as France, are also cooperating with them.
Fight in Mediterranean moving to Caspian, Black seas
The Caspian and Mediterranean energy equation has been combined with the latest attacks. The fight in the Mediterranean expanded to the Caucasus, and a rough conflict has started on the connection lines between the Caspian and the Mediterranean. Based on this, it is possible to say that the attacks targeting Tovuz are going to continue and that clashes will increase.
The tremors of this are going to be felt in Georgia, South Azerbaijan, North Caucasus, and the eastern Black Sea. Just as the drilling activities Turkey launched in the western Black Sea with its Fatih Drillship are integral with the drilling conducted in the Mediterranean, just as it is a show of power over Mediterranean energy resources, it will become part of the Caspian energy geopolitics by turning towards the Eastern Black Sea as well.
Plans to close off the ‘East gate’
Just as Syria is an internal affair for Ankara, just as Libya is a part of the Mediterranean power equation, Armenia’s attacks on Azerbaijan are also a matter of the future.
A powerful Azerbaijan will shape Turkey’s power map in the Central Asia-Anatolia, Middle East equation. If Russia, Iran, France, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) finalize the game they started with the latest attack, Turkey’s east gate will be completely closed off.
Attempts to close the ‘south gate’ with a ‘terror corridor’
Just as the “terror corridor” they are trying to expand from the Iranian border to the Mediterranean aims to severe all of Turkey’s ties with the south, the Arab/Islamic region, the most recent Armenian attacks are also aimed at building an impenetrable wall in Turkey’s east.
Just as their plans to close in on Turkey from the Mediterranean, corner it from the Aegean are part of the siege project, Armenian attacks are preparations for the siege from the East.
Beyond energy geopolitics, the matter concerns Turkey and Azerbaijan’s existence. The siege in these three regions, the same countries being involved in all the siege projects presents the big picture.
Turkey will intervene ‘regardless of the consequences’
Turkey intervened in the “terror corridor” and foiled that map project through its operations and interventions. It is conducting determined and harsh interventions against the sieging plans launched from the East Mediterranean, the Mediterranean, and the Aegean. The power struggle in Libya and the Mediterranean is a sign of this.
Turkey must and will intervene in these siege plans in the East, regardless of the consequences. I say, “regardless of the consequences,” because this is a matter concerning the future, a matter concerning Turkey’s survival in the region.
I had previously used the words, “regardless of the consequences,” “even if it means suicide” for the “terror corridor” as well. Back then, I had said, “This is only the beginning.” The result is clear!
Age of speed, refraction of mind: Reading the region, seeing the power map
Interpreting the region, interpreting the changes in the power map, interpreting global and regional tendencies is critical. This means knowledge. Many, including the state’s relevant institutions, sometimes find these insignificant. This is due to the fact that their mentality is largely based on institutional clichés.
However, the world has reached such an age of speed and the refraction of the mind that new statements, new interpretations, and new concepts are needed. This is the only way to bring old claims to the present.
I used to write articles about the “multinational power struggles” in the East Mediterranean even before the Syrian war broke out. We saw years later that the Syrian war is part of this showdown, that it is a Mediterranean fight, that it is a war for the “terror corridor” map.
We wrote about ‘terror corridor’ in 2005
Looking back, I see that I wrote about the “terror corridor” as early as 2005. Neither the Syria issue nor the Mediterranean energy fights existed back then. I wrote the following on Aug. 23, 2005, with the headline, “Neden Karadeniz, Terör Neden Trabzon’a Ulaşmaya Çalışıyor” (Why the Black Sea? Why is Terror Trying to Reach Trabzon?):
“The PKK or any other organization’s focus on Trabzon (the Black Sea region) cannot be explained with the Kurdish issue or any other ethnic problem.
There are going to be critical developments from Northern Iraq to the Gulf of İskenderun, in other words, in the area up to the East Mediterranean, to Mersin (the terror corridor map).
The developments exploiting the weaknesses, the weak aspects of the region spanning Northern Iraq and the Black Sea are going to reach concerning dimensions.
Turkey is gaining a second East Mediterranean. This is the eastern Black Sea. The region is going to be on the world agenda like never before in history.”
Azerbaijan’s resistance combined with Turkey’s power
I wrote numerous articles since 2005 on how the East Mediterranean is going to be the field for a global showdown, how the Eastern Black Sea will be transformed into what the East Mediterranean is today, how all elements of instability will be directed to these fields, the connection in these regions between the Caspian and Caucasus, and the integrity of the crisis.
Now, the Armenian attack in Tovuz is reopening these chapters. New scenarios are being staged to weaken Azerbaijan’s power, to close off Turkey’s eastern gates. The Caspian, south Caucasus, oil pipelines, transportation corridors, Azerbaijan’s resistance, Turkey’s power are being laid on the table with these attacks.
Armenia’s in over its head; it will burn the Caucasus, Iran
The more the crisis escalates, the more the Eastern Black Sea region is going to be open to international debate and become a new point of contention. This game is way over Armenia’s head. This fire will burn both Iran and North Caucasus, and destabilize Georgia.
What I am trying to say is that the matter is not an Azerbaijani-Armenian border conflict. It is only the east front of a great plan, a multi-player game from the project to “stop Turkey” from Libya to Syria, from the Caspian to the East Mediterranean, and to the plan to make Azerbaijan surrender.
Turkey will manage to keep the eastern gate open
It seems the task of directing terrorist organizations in this game has been assigned to the UAE, to Mohammed bin Zayed once again. We will witness this as well.
The solidarity between Turkey and Azerbaijan, their determination, vision and plan for the region, their concept of power will foil this plan. Just as it was foiled in Libya, Iraq, Syria, just as it is foiling it in the Mediterranean, it will foil it in the Caucasus as well.
Turkey will manage to keep the east gate open.
You did not believe the previous ones either. You are going to have to believe this too.