The day the Russian plane was downed, the Presidency, Prime Minister's Office, Turkish General Staff and the Foreign Ministry established a mutual communication channel through which the crisis would be managed. Everything that was done or was to be done by each foundation was shared with the other partners. The orders given, developments and information were conveyed to the heads of all foundations via this channel. In the end, the most successful political, diplomatic, military and communication operation of recent years was established.
The other day I spoke with someone in this communication channel, who has been closely following the operation and developments since the very start. When I shared all the doubts and questions I had on my mind, I realized that this issue was beyond a conspiracy theory and had turned into a serious analysis. I found out that both the government and NATO had discussed the issue thoroughly. So, I have not started writing on conspiracy theories.
The question asked since the initial shock of the incident is hidden in title of this column: “Did Russia intentionally have its plane downed?” I will touch on the realities that bring this question about.
First, I will remind you of the developments before the plane was downed: The US said, “ We will not have a single combat boot step into the Middle East, we will not enter the battle, but we will supply arms to those who will.” A void emerged in the region and the region was left without a “chief.”
Russia saw this void and immediately started to pester the region. It then established two makeshift bases, one in the sea and the other on land. Iraq, Iran and Syria welcomed this move with joy.
Russia visited Israel, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, too. It said, “I am here with my physical power rather than the US's 'cowardly and hesitant' policies, I am ready to protect you as 'chief.'”
To prove its power, its planes took off from the makeshift bases before the eyes of the US and EU, and started to bomb Syrian President Bashar Assad's opponents instead of bombing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Meanwhile, it violated Turkey's airspace many times and abused its ships.
It did not stop. It wanted to bring the world's most developed air defense system, the S400 missile system to the region. The US and its allies, did not say, “Neither ISIL nor the opponents have planes, thus if you bring these in we will perceive this move as a threat against us.” They did not stop Russia from bringing the missiles in.
Having lost most of its power, Iran was revived with the support of Syria and Russia. Yet, as Russia started to attack US ally opposition groups and the Turkey-backed Turkmens, tensions started to further escalate. The US and Turkey showed strong reactions behind closed doors, but did not abandon their policies.
All this happened before the plane was downed.
One morning Russian jets violated Turkish airspace again. The “Guard Channel” open on all planes worldwide, was turned off. The specifically established radio system between Turkey and Russia was not answering either. Other jets in the region had heard the announcements Turkey had made. Russian jets continued to violate the airspace and was eventually downed.
Russia took action, as if it was not expecting such a move. The first thing it did was bring into the region the S400 missiles which the US and EU opposed. It pulled its greatest warship into our seas and started to bomb impudently. It increased its military ammunition, as though it was going to go into war against everyone.
In fact, Russia took the opportunity to settle into the region for good. Russia will now have the right to comment not only on military issues, but all the petrol and gas issues, the regimes to be established and the changes to be made on maps. It will use its own interests, including the interests of its allies, as an excuse.
Another issue that should not be overlooked is that last year Russia had planned to sell a barrel of petrol for $110. Today, the price of a barrel has dropped to $45, with the intervention of the US and Saudi Arabia. Russia started to go through a serious economic crisis last year.
Now, Russia is embarking on its second largest source of income, after energy: Selling weapons. Thus, there is not a greater market than the Middle East for this. Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Syria buy nearly all of their weapons from Russia. Egypt, Jordan, the UAE and Libya are in line. Why should Russia lose such a great source of income for the sake of peace in the Middle East?
Let's not forget that war is Russia's greatest source of income and strengthening tool, since its days as an empire.
Russia seriously believes that using the downed Russian plane as an excuse, it can fool around in the Middle East to its heart's desire. The US was already withdrawing from the region, thus with a good excuse, and now Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken to the Middle East stage. Posing with tigers, bears and crocodiles, Putin will soon pose with cobras, giants and turtles in the deserts of the Middle East.
Even if Turkey knew this plan, sooner or later it had to intervene with the planes violating its airspace. This is what being a state requires.
Let's say that the “Russia intentionally had its plane downed” theory is a little extreme. Still, we can say that Russia took the best part of the loot from the downed plane. And of course, we still do not know how Turkey will respond to Russia's sanctions and what the US and EU will say to Russia. What happened to the poor Russian pilot cannot be undone. It's the poor Russian pilot who got the short end of the stick.
