Four matters to approach with caution - KEMAL ÖZTÜRK

Four matters to approach with caution

There are a few issues that have been continuing since last week. We need to approach some of them with caution. Because, it is not guaranteed that they will work out. Let me try and explain.

Is a constitution vote in Parliament guaranteed?

A likely constitution amendment has been discussed since yesterday. Many people believe that voting results are guaranteed. Can this be the case?

There needs to be 330 representatives for this to actually happen.

Firstly, all 316 representatives of the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) are required to be present during all voting sessions.

Last week, Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım announced a legal regulation related to pensioners and tradesmen. While the legal regulation was discussed in Parliament, the decision was halted because of four representatives. Lethargy is an important problem. Matters should be taken seriously.

Will there be anyone who votes “no” in the secret ballot? It is said that there are many secret Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETÖ) supporters within the AK Party. I don't believe this is the case. They were eliminated in the two previous elections. There might be representatives that are hurt, offended and resentful for certain reasons. Their attitudes are important in this case.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has 39 representatives. Seven of them announced that they will say “no” for sure. But we know that there were many others who did not show their true colors during the brush between MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli and the oppositions. Thus, it is hard to estimate how many of them will vote “no” in the secret ballot.

In short, we should not think the secret ballot results are guaranteed.

Will the Baghdad Administration expel PKK from Iraq?

After making an intense and harsh statement, Prime Minister Yıldırım paid a visit to Baghdad and Erbil, hence, creating an optimist mood. This is promising in the sense of solving the regional issues.

But, somehow the Baghdad administration's declaration that it will not allow the PKK or any other terror organization to stay in Iraq did not seem realistic to me. As there is no such will as the Baghdad administration in Iraq; instead there is a power called Tehran in Iraq. Iran stated that it was “pleased” that we drew near to Iraq. But, let's not forget that Iran is the country that secretly gave the biggest support to the PKK for years.

Now the issue is even more complicated. The PKK has an alliance with the U.S. and Russia, too. Let's say Russia gave up on the PKK for our sake, we should know that the U.S. will not. Yet, Russia pushed Turkey, Iran and the U.S. out of the game in Syria. If the U.S. lets go of the PKK, it will not have any other power left to use in the field.

Another matter that we should not forget is that we are very close with the Kurdish Iraqi administration; however, they couldn't even throw the PKK out of their own land or fight against it.

Yet, throwing the PKK out of Iraq means that there will be a very radical change in the region. And this does not seem likely at the moment. We should act with care. Turkey has been cheated so many times on this issue that it will not make a fait accompli on the Mosul issue and move out of the Bashiqa region before it actually sees the promises being carried out in the field.

Is Assad going?

A few days ago, Bashar Assad told the French press, “I am ready to speak about everything in Astana.” This caused many to interpret this as “Assad will withdraw.” I don't think so. There is no such will as “Assad.” The name of the will in Damascus is “Iran.” Don't forget this.

Iran has paid so many prices for Syria and it has been so engaged with Assad that if the opposite were to happen it would not be able to explain itself to its public. There is an upcoming election in Iran in May this year. Iran's Syria policies are being criticized within. Rafsanjani, who recently passed away, was one of these people.

Assad's withdrawal would mean that Iran's policies will all be questioned. Iran will not be able to explain why Assad left, just like Turkey cannot explain why Assad still remains in power. Besides, why would Assad, who just occupied Aleppo, leave anyway?

This is the point at which the Astana meeting gets jammed. Turkey objects to Assad staying, while Iran objects to him stepping down. Russia has not disclosed its side yet. It is waiting. It is waiting to see which book it can take a leaf out of.

Assad might have made such a statement to draw Turkey to Astana and make it sit at the table. However, Turkey is acting with caution, because it has been cheated by everyone on the Syria issue. You should act cautiously, too.

Trump will come and our worries will end

Donald Trump will take over the Presidential Office on Jan. 20. Obama is doing everything possible to leave behind a wreck.

Some are expecting great change in the U.S.'s Turkey and Middle East policies once Trump becomes president. I am not that optimistic. The U.S. presidential seat is not just any position.

The world had thought the Muslims would reach a state of harmony when Obama came to power because he had “Hussein” in his name, and the African descent would reach a state of harmony because he was black. However, the highest number of Muslim and Black deaths happened while Obama was in power.

Let's see how long Trump will resist against the settled order when he comes to power. We will then understand how much change will take place in the U.S. and the world.

Please lean to the side of caution. Or else you will be disappointed.

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