We must primarily say that there is not much Turkey can in terms of international law. Because according to international conventions, you cannot do anything even if you saw that the consul shooting Jamal Khashoggi in front of everyone's eyes. You can’t forcefully enter a consulate, nor can you arrest someone inside who you think is a murderer. The most that can be done would be to deport the suspect. That's the strange but bitter truth. Let’s move on.
These are conventional laws. I'm sure that if it was known in time that the assassination team that allegedly killed Khashoggi was inside the consulate, Turkey would abandon routine, regardless of any complaints, and arrest the killers. But Turkey cannot simply abandon practices and enter the consulate, where there are only instigators but not killers.
Currently Turkey is managing the process by abiding by international laws. Turkey got permission; it will enter the consulate, investigate the case and continue the legal process. Turkey may not find anything during this investigation. However, this is the thing to do from a legal perspective.
Turkey is more powerful than perceived
Turkey’s hands are not totally tied. I think they underestimated the National Intelligence Agency. If what I hear is true, we'll see together that Saudi has no place to escape.
Actually, Turkey had taken more security measures for foreign mission centers after Russian Ambassador Karlov’s assassination. We have our own security cameras recording the entrance and exit of the Saudi consulate. Saudi Arabia had said there was no information that Khashoggi entered the consulate, but yesterday the Washington Post published the frame of Khashoggi entering the building. This frame was taken with our security camera. And using these records, it will be proved that Khashoggi never came out again.
We can say that the frame showing Khashoggi entering the consulate is not the strongest evidence. What if Turkey has recordings from inside the building? We'll understand all this after the investigation is complete. The real critical issue will start to be discussed then.
If the murder is solved, it will cause a wide-scale crisis
What will happen when Turkey proves that this murder has been committed?
Of course a huge crisis will be triggered. Turkey-Saudi relations will be severed. Everyone in the consulate will be declared as a persona non grata and deported. Saudi Arabia will retaliate, ambassadors will be mutually withdrawn, and the crisis will deepen. These are routine crisis procedures.
The crisis is likely to create a domino effect. The plane, which is said carried the killers, landed in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It's an execution that circulated in the devil’s triangle.
Then we can experience crises with the UAE and Egypt, and also other satellite countries.
I don't think the United States will exhibit a significant reaction if this murder is proved. He won’t sacrifice the Saudi dynasty, which the U.S. forces to pay protection money and twists around its finger, for the dead body of a journalist. The U.S. will slide around it by vain condemnation.
If it is proved that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a voluntary slave to the United States, was involved, maybe Russia, Europe will support us just to put pressure on the U.S. and deepen the crisis. But let's not forget, Saudi Arabia has a lot of money and the greedy West is ready to cover up everything for money.
Saudi Arabia will either be a rogue state or hand over the criminals
Turkey can adopt the following strategies before storm clouds gather around: if Saudi Arabia says that the murder was committed against the will of the state, reveals all suspects, including the consulate, hands them over for judicial proceedings, and apologizes, then the crisis won’t deepen and spread. Although the crime scene is a diplomatic mission, the unconventional acts of state officials and bureaucrats who ordered the murder can also be included within the scope of the investigation by Saudi Arabia. Then this matter will also involve Prince Salman. There is no better opportunity for the internal and external circles who want to get rid of him.
Otherwise, this murder will turn out to be an operation of Saudi Arabia and it will fall into the category of being a rogue state. All the countries that currently hate Saudi and Prince Salman will review their relations with this state.
There are those who say deeper things. I'm not very good at conspiracy theories. Some people even claimed that Israel and the CIA are involved. In any case, the parties which may benefit from the breakdown of Saudi-Turkey relations may have encouraged the murder.
But I can say that Turkey has to teach some a lesson that Turkey is not an ordinary state, that one cannot simply get away with committing murder in this county, and that criminals are always severely punished. Otherwise, its reputation will be damaged.
I think that's why a strong response is still being prepared.