'Black propaganda' blew up in their face, markets are normalizing - KEREM ALKIN

'Black propaganda' blew up in their face, markets are normalizing

Initially starting subtly since 2011 and then carried out implicitly with the Gezi Park riots in the summer of 2013, the black propaganda against the Turkish economy and it constantly being illustrated as a `pessimistic picture` has now exceeded its limits, and burst like a balloon. The black propaganda was carried out based on these foundations: 1) The financial discipline in public institutions are getting out of order; Turkey will have a serious budget deficit and public debt stock will increase, 2) The current deficit isn't getting any smaller, and the measures taken by the economy management are not working, 3) The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is under serious political oppression, 4) Growth will come to a halt and set to zero, and the economy will go into recession, 5) The financial structure of Turkish banks are degenerating, 6) Turkey's international grading point will soon be downgraded.

The reprehensible bombing that killed 102 of our citizens, was a blast that we curse as it fills our hearts with sorrow. Yet, this blast strangely (maybe this is a weird twist of fate) burst this balloon of “black propaganda.” As expected by some, this blast in Ankara (hoping that we never experience anything like this again) and other attempts in which the Turkish security and intelligence services need to work with great attention and vigilance, for example the riot and looting attempt in Kırşehir, could not afflict the milestones of the economy and production dynamics planted in the last 12 years. Turkey has shown unexpected resistance against the black propaganda conducted against it by foreign and local media in the past two-and-a-half years. Thus global investors have quickly reviewed their thoughts on Turkey and have accordingly changed their position in favor of Turkey.

The comeback should be strengthened

While, exporting treasury bonds at a risk rate of 112 points on May 8, 2013 Credit Default Swaps (CDS), Turkey, having a low risk perception when compared to the world's leading economies, then was made to see a 327-point CDS rate on Sept. 29, 2015. We are talking about a savage “black propaganda” to this degree. The second hand interest of the benchmark bond processed at a 5 percent interest on May 10, 2013, was savagely brought to 11.6 percent on Sept. 26, 2015. In other words, the Turkish Treasury was forced to be burdened by a serious interest rate. They tried to steal the life standards of the Turkish community. Take a look at the figures I have mentioned above, and the dates. The Turkish lira loosing value against the dollar and the euro since the Gezi Park incidents, the treasury debt and interest increasing to 57 percent and the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) 100 Index dropping from 96,000 points to 71,000 points. If you think that this is all normal and that the disruption in the Turkish Financial Market has nothing to do with the “black propaganda,” I have nothing to say to you.

The “black propaganda” balloon burst with the bombs that blasted in front of the Ankara Rail Station. International investors observed that the Turkish economy was very durable against such an attack, and thus interest toward the Turkish financial instruments has rapidly increased. The stock index increased above 80 points; bond yields have regressed from 11.6 to 10.1; the dollar has decreased from TL 3.07 to TL 2.90, and the bond risk premium (CDS) has dropped from 327 points to 250 points. Is this enough? No it isn't. Because , the Turkish economy is showing a test of strength and resistance, bringing many indicators back to the May 2013 values. No doubt, the effects of the increase of the policy interest, made by the CBRT, on the world economy is currently being talked about. And yes, there are issues with global growth rates. Yet none of the above will prevent the dollar-TL rate falling to the 2.5 TL mark, the Treasury second hand interest rates dropping to the 9.9-9 band, and the stock index increasing to the 90,000 point mark again. The positive comeback of markets should be strengthened in this respect.

A government should come out of this election

Despite all the “black propaganda,” none of the global investors are giving credit to the gossip that the Nov. 1 elections will be postponed. They are avoiding the salvos that a government will not be formed thus a new election will be held in February and March. They are predicting that the Turkish economy will continue its growth with a new and resisting government, and that Turkey will be ready for the forecasted 2016-2017 rough period that the world is predicted to enter. It is also foreseen that Turkey will be “politically stable” and will take proactive measures for economic stability. Let us unite and bury this “black propaganda” deep into the ground.


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