Scenarios for Turkish economy in 2016 - KEREM ALKIN

Scenarios for Turkish economy in 2016

When the Cold War ended in the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a wave of joy in Western economies. The biggest economic-political rival of the capitalist system was annihilated. After that, a new period in which it was “assumed” that the defense expenses would be reduced, economic resources would begin to be used for more development, globalization would be more common.

However, when we entered 1998, for the 21st century prominent research and think tanks of the world were pointing out severe environmental problems, the immigration and refugee issue that would gradually increase, the risks of deepening global poverty, an increase in geopolitical conflicts and ethnic problems, global terror, the overgrowth of China and India and the fluctuation risks of global commodity prices.

Within a short period of 15 years, all these risks combined to threaten the world economy have been a part of life with their risks andthreats.

That is why, with its geostrategic location, role in global population and production, global economic policies, analysts are trying to understand and evaluate not only regional but also locally articulated global dimensions; the business world and our exporters; the politics and bureaucracy managing the economic policies of Turkey, scenarios toward Turkey today and in the future unlike variables of the Cold War era that could be counted on two hands, in a platform surrounded with unknown and asymmetric threats in almost astronomical dimensions.

Therefore, whenever starting a new year, it is possible for the Turkish economy to go well or badly.

This situation requires talented people with the skill to gather data from different information networks on a global scale, different mindset working culture, who can analyze them rapidly and work and report in different depth and function both in the presidency and prime ministry.

Global problems and uncertainties have reached such a dangerous depth that not only an institution or authority could own them.

Groupings will gain prominence in 2016

While shaping the dynamics of the Turkish economy in 2016, alignment of countries pointing out interesting formations in the regional dimension and making itself felt in the global system have to be followed carefully.

However, for Russia, starting from the Baltic republics, all countries bordering the Black Sea strengthening their relations with the European Union and NATO rapidly, Turkey's role as a bridge in these relations and our position as the only wing of NATO in the southeast, has been a quite disturbing siege. The Russia-Armenia-Iran-Iraq and Syria siege is deeply disturbing and a sign for risk in Turkey.

From this aspect, strengthening the relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan by removing mutual suspicions they were careful not to mention, even behind the curtain in the most condensed way, has been more important than ever.

Since the global finance crisis in 2008, from the aspect of the first- and second-generation economies on which the exportation of Turkey condensed gradually, breaking the climbing economic-political relations with some of them, are not restricted only with the climbing of the troubles between us and these countries which are our first-generation neighbors, but also threatening our export ties with the second-generation countries, which we want to reach through the territories of these countries.

That is why, 2016, no doubt, indicates a period in which we should work on alternate trade and transportation corridors that will make our economic-political relations with the second-generation neighbor countries deepening on the troubles and the dimensions of the tension we will experience with the countries that are our first- generation neighbors.

That is why the workload of our Energy, Transportation and Economy ministers will be no less than that of the Foreign Ministry. They will perhaps even have a more proactive workload.

Let's play for the balanced scenario

As Turkey, a scenario is quite compelling in which the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) could increase the interest rate 4 percent in 2016, the European Central Bank (ECB) would end the monetary expansion, the global commodity prices would further fall, political and military tension would climb higher in our region.

Also add the terror fed by the number one actors of this fire surrounding us. We could cope with such a heavy and pessimistic scenario only with an active monetary and financial policy set.

Nobody could say that we could use the opportunity of financial policy well until today.

Depending on the quality of public expenditures and effective usage, with a balanced tax policy this process works.

In a scenario that the Fed could only increase the interest rate twice in 2016 and the ECB could not complete the monetary expansion, the field of movement, within which we could manage the effects of the fire in our region on the Turkish economy, could expand a little more.

But the proactive usage of the monetary and finance policies and managing the “perception” of the steps in the set of the finance policy well will have critical importance.

That is why, whatever world of thought they have, we should “show force” with all the esteemed men of thought in Turkey who would unite around the same table. If the “global network” working against Turkey becomes more successful in the “Turkey” perception that it created in international media in 2016, a hard year is waiting for us in 2016.


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