Those that 'improved' before 'FED' are declining - KEREM ALKIN

Those that 'improved' before 'FED' are declining

The economic-political agenda of Turkey is not over. The developments we have been watching since we downed the Russian jet have entered into a new phase with the discussions and polemics regarding the deployment of our military troops in Iraq for training purposes. You have been following the global, regional politic and diplomatic sides of the issue from the politically expert columnists of Yeni Şafak newspaper, who are more precious than the others.

Apparently, as Turkey has been managing the process in a dignified, self-confident way with calm professionalism, it seems that after a while it will turn into a broader regional and global competition for the oil and natural gas opportunities of the land and sea in the eastern Mediterranean.

The crisis that emerged between Turkey and Russia signals tension between NATO and Russia.

This political picture alone is filled with global and regional tension and uncertainty.

Before November 1, even Turkey had serious uncertainties. We have seen that the Turkish real economy industry saw an increase of 4.6 percent, in Q3, which was the uncertainty period between June 7 and November 1, Turkey's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 4 percent.

For some reason, while the international economy atmosphere of global finance investors, most of the leading developing countries have a growth rate averaging 2 percent, even below 1 percent, and are suffering from serious economic troubles, Turkey's continuing on its way with an average performance, interestingly, is not seen enough.

The Turkish Lira has been vacuumed with the other currencies.

South African Rand affected us as well

Basically, it was very difficult for the US dollar to break the 2.88-2.92 level. However an analysis of market movement for the two weeks will show that the US dollar exchange rate could not break TL 2.92, as yesterday morning the USD/TL exchange rate started below TL 2.92.

With market tension before the decision to hike the interest rate that would almost be certain and has been expected to be announced on December 16 by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), even if thousands of kilometers away from us, in South Africa, which is in the same time zone with us, loss in value that started in the South African Rand has also affected the TL as well as other leading developing economy currencies.

As the news of the dismissal of the South African finance minister in the beginning of the week, who was known as a reputable figure, and the Fed's opportunity to increase the interest rate came together, the South African rand lost 2.4 percent value against the US dollar.

As the tough losses in the South African Rand and the continuation of the value loss in oil caused the Russian ruble to lose almost 2 percent value against the US dollar, Turkish Lira lost 1.7 percent of its value against the US dollar as well.

Interestingly, as the world-famous agricultural bank of the Netherlands, Rabobank, also confirmed, if the South African rand did not have a such a high daily value loss, among the developing currencies, the Russian ruble would be the currency experiencing the most serious value losses.

Rabobank's assessment indicates that, among the developing currencies Turkish Lira will be one of the currencies that will make use of the decreasing oil prices the most.

Rabobank, despite this, pointed out that due to the tendency to avoid the global risk triggered by the fall in the global commodity prices, Turkish Lira, stocks and bonds were affected by the global sales and position vacation yesterday in US dollar's gaining value against TL.

Growth rate for 2015 may reach 3.5-3.8 percent

Industrial production data for October and the Q3 growth that's been better than expected, has been strengthening the possibility in the last quarter of the year that growth data could be higher than expected.

In light of July-September data, which I confirmed once again and according to calculations I have been making for 10 years with the primitive methods I use, my personal prediction for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the third quarter which was announced on December 10, Thursday was between 2.6 percent to 2.8 percent.

With this simple prediction method, my prediction for the growth rate in the third quarter appeared to be 2.2 percent at worst 3.8 percent at best with a 70 percent chance it would be between 2.6 percent to 2.8 percent. The 4 percent growth rate that was announced was close to my prediction at best percentage.

I shared this in my article on Wednesday. I was angry since I took my prediction one point lower than the expectation I shared, according to my prediction for the percentage at best. My situation was like that of the public opinion research companies that predicted the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would take 49 percent of the votes before the November 1 elections, but did not announce it.

Some disagreed with our expectation of 5 percent added value increase in the agriculture. Exceeding our expectation that seemed optimistic, according to 2014 in the Q3, the agriculture sector reached an increase of 11.1 percent and contributed to the 4 percent growth rate.

Compared with 2014, with Turkish people's continuing high daily consumption expenditures and public expenditures it seems that 4 percent has been reached.

If the industrial production data pointing out 4.6 percent of increase as of October continues to be high in November and the current month of December, from now on we can assume that we will finish 2015 with a growth rate between 3.5-3.8 percent throughout the year.

Meanwhile, all international finance institutions, ranking companies and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting the growth rate for 2015 below 3 percent have been "reverse cornered" since the growth of the Turkish economy.





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