Politics in the leading and most developed countries is going through its weakest, most empty and engorged period of history. The number of voters in the latest elections in Europe declined to 71 percent in France, 66 percent in Germany, 50 percent in the US, and 61 percent in England. However, the number of voters being higher in Turkey and Belgium at about 86 percent and 80 percent in Sweden, Denmark, Australia and South Korea shows that this decline is not the case throughout the world. The lack of interest the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council in politics leads to a “leaderless” trauma, a disheartened and timid political approach. As the “evading responsibility and overlooking problems” approach exists, we witness that this will affect other institutions in countries.
As the aforementioned countries run away from their responsibilities in the international security area, and adopt the 'let the sleeping dogs lie' approach, they avoid combating terrorism, lower defense costs, and their armies and security forces lose their ability to operate. There are countries that would look for a place to hide if Russia even said “boo.” Europe's cowardice and Turkey being left alone, despite being a NATO member and candidate for EU membership, has spoiled the balance of power in the region. France and other European countries choose to bury their heads in the sand, despite seeing Germany's efforts to stop the threat (Germany has realized that this threat has increased in Europe), and despite the terror attack on Paris. This unawareness they have adopted will cause the world's political balance to turn upside down.
Is Russia targeting Merkel?
It is said that Russia is targeting Merkel with its Syria strategy in hopes of turning the refugee issue into a wider crisis. For this reason, EU countries, and particularly France, abandoning Merkel during the EU Leaders Summit is helping Russia inadvertently. Many high-level politicians say they want Russia to pay a price for annexing Georgia and Ukraine, and especially for its recent politics in Syria. However, they add that they do not know how they will achieve this. They have also expressed that they are concerned with a NATO member country, Turkey, being in a jammed region where Russia is present with its armed forces. These concerned statements particularly encourage Russia further. Russia is directly playing upon Merkel, who supports the US and has included the EU in the sanctions regarding Ukraine.
It is said that Russia is calculating that as the number of refugees who seek asylum in Germany increases, Merkel will not be able to concentrate on other governmental issues. Some security and diplomacy experts generate conspiracy theories from the connection between the Ukraine and refugee crisis issues. That is to say, with the bombs Russia has dropped on Assad's enemies in Syria, Russia plans to intensify the refugee crisis in Europe, especially Germany, and bring Merkel to the point of losing her seat as chancellor. Germany's renowned political expert journalists have interpreted Putin's moves as having the audacity to use the refugee issue as a “brutal” tactic to end Merkel's political career.
Russia playing on Europe's vulnerability due to its “lack of leadership” syndrome, will edge Merkel out of European politics. Therefore, if Merkel leaves the EU Leaders Summit (which started Thursday and continues today as I write this article) without the support of other EU members on the refugee issue, then Russia will be rubbing its hands with glee.
Aleppo is the breaking point
The Assad regime coming to the brink of besieging Aleppo as a result of Russia's strategic moves, is linked to the Obama administration's passive attitude, according to many Western experts and media members. In the case Aleppo is captured by regime forces and the refugee crisis is multiplied, with the support of Germany, Turkey will start to establish a safe zone for the refugees in the north of Syria.
Turkey, which, because of the improvidence and arrogance of certain European leaders and the US government, is under the risk of being abandoned against threats aimed at its security despite being a NATO member, is trying to get Germany, which has realized the gravity of the situation, and other Western countries out of the state of sluggishness. The US administration has realized that it has isolated Merkel, is now making some gestures, but I am afraid Russia will try to take advantage of the US presidential election year to the end.