As 2019 comes to a close, we gradually begin to see the outlook for the upcoming year.
This topic has become one of fervent interest over the years and is discussed frequently during the final months of the year since it’s only human after all to want to predict the future and assess the potential risks and dangers in order to take the necessary precautions and make the most of advantages.
Of course one of the most discussed subjects is what constitutes risks for the coming year.
Because we are reminded of the significance of ascertaining the risks beforehand during every economic crisis.
The prominent risks for 2020
Deutsche Bank’s chief economist Torsten Slok listed the top 20 risks for global economies and markets in 2020, and we will be taking a look at the most prominent.
Inequality dominates the list.
In fact, the injustices in global income distribution and their effects on health and education which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regularly touches upon during almost every UN general summit, is still one of the world’s biggest issues.
On the other hand, I would like to remind you of Hans Rosling’s New York Times bestseller “Factfulness” which conveys that the evidence that shows the world is much better than it was in the past and that living standards have improved is insufficient.
Just because the lowest income group has better living standards than before does not mean that the divergence in inequality is acceptable.
Another risk foreseen for 2020 is the ongoing trade wars.
Even though reports have circulated that a deal will be reached, we know that the trade wars are bound to continue.
Furthermore, following Brexit we should prepare for a currency war that includes the pound and euro, in addition to the dollar and yuan.
While we’re on the subject of Brexit, let us note that the ambiguity in this process is one of the potential risks for the upcoming year.
Another development we will closely be following next year is the inquiry into Donald Trump’s impeachment.
The U.S. possesses one of the world’s largest economies and hence, thanks to the 2008 economic crisis we very well know what’s at stake if its economy hits a bump in the road.
In this sense, the repercussions of how aggressively Trump will react to the process initiated against him need to be closely followed.
What will Turkey’s priorities be?
On the one hand, Turkey is following developments overseas and the global economy and on the other it is staying on top of its own priorities.
In terms of the economy, Turkey focuses on macro data such as growth, interest, inflation, current account balance and unemployment; and on the other hand, the terrorist activities in Syria and Iraq, developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the policies of our allies continue to be on our agenda.
Turkey has for a while now been more proactively managing its fight against terror, in addition to economic steps to be taken, however, the approaches of Turkey’s so-called allies which go against international law as well their regional policies have turned into a risk that we need to stay on top of.
Taking this into consideration, Turkey’s priority in 2020 will be to take technical steps with regards to the economy as well as the non-economic developments which will naturally affect it.