For a while now, there have been serious conflicts and festering wounds in our region. Last week, we added yet another one to this list. Following the attacks launched by Armenia, Azerbaijan took action and one by one started re-capturing its territories which were occupied 27 years ago. Allow me to drop a quick note: We must stand with Azerbaijan in it its rightful fight and intervention to the end. However, this is not just a reflection of our “Two states, one nation” motto, but a necessity of international law, human rights and democracy.
THIS TIME THE LOSERS ON THE BATTLEFIELD AND LOSERS AT DIPLOMACY ARE DIFFERENT
The continuation of Armenia’s systemic attacks on civilians residing on Azerbaijani lands took on a new dimension when the Azeri administration decided to launch a military initiative against the 27-year occupation of Karabakh. If we were to make a comparison, it’s only natural that Armenia and Prime Minister Pashinyan lost against the Azeri army and in the face of Aliyev’s experience and power. In this case, it is crystal clear who the loser on the battlefield is. But the real loser, with their false claims at the diplomacy table and their lie-based policies is the Armenian diaspora. It is time for some Western leaders who are under the influence of the Armenian diaspora to put on their thinking hats. Because it is such that Armenia, the lies and occupation of which they turn a blind to, is committing war crimes by directly targeting civilians.
WHY IS ARMENIA ATTACKING GANJA?
Ganja is the second biggest city in Azerbaijan. However its significance doesn’t end there. It is the crossing point of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the Baku-Supsa natural gas pipelines. The E-60 highway connecting Europe to China and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway pass through this city as well. In summary, Ganja is of strategic value in terms of both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and for the EU’s energy supply security. Azerbaijan currently supplies the EU with 5 percent of its gas. Furthermore it is of strategic importance in terms of diversifying resources. Hence, Armenia’s missile attacks both threaten the EU’ energy supply security and China’s trade, which was already dealt a blow with the coronavirus pandemic. The latest in a series of examples is Armenia’s attack conducted two days ago on the BTC oil pipeline.
Additionally, let’s reiterate one thing. Ninety-five percent of Georgia’s natural gas and one-third of Greece’s gas passes through Azerbaijan. If this flow is suspended or if a prolonged repair is in question due to damage, these countries’ administrations may have to make explanations to their citizens as to why they have remained silent in the face of Armenia’s occupation and attacks.
EYES ON CENTRAL ASIA
The world's economic center of gravity is shifting rapidly from the West to the East. Turkey has become the hub for this transformation. Meanwhile, things are heating up along the corridor from Turkey to Asia. It seems as though Azerbaijan will step-by-step physically liberate Karabakh from occupation and tensions will thaw along the corridor as Baku engages in diplomacy together with Turkey. However, if we delve a little deeper into things, this won’t serve Russia and the U.S. in terms of their perspectives on China. In this respect, some of the proxy wars will move to Central Asia. As we interpret the current events in Afghanistan, Kashmir and finally in Kyrgyzstan, we cannot disregard this situation.