Just after the period when conventional wars were replaced by proxy wars, the dollar financial system, which was used to train states, was used as a war material against Russia in the most severe form by the Western allies in the Russia-Ukraine war. I won't go into details, but if we remember briefly, Russia was removed from the swift system, the assets of the Russian Central Bank, the personal assets of the Russian rich and politicians were confiscated. There are special applications on the internet for the sanctions list, which number in the thousands. It has become impossible to keep track of accounts.
Russia seems to have overcome the shackles that are being tried to be imposed on itself through the financial system, slightly than the Western states dreamed of. The ruble has stabilized, there is no problem in the availability of goods, moreover, with the rising energy prices, there has been more cash inflow to the treasury than the usual process.
Russia, which was trying to protect and balance its position until the time we arrived, relentlessly took a very important step that could correspond to the “Financial Offensive” this week; “It turned off the gas valve, started the energy war.”
“Stagflation”, which I have been trying to explain to our readers in my column for a few weeks, has clearly emerged in front of the global economy as Europe-centered.
Investment bank JP Morgan predicts that as gas prices in Europe rise again after the Kremlin's step, gas cuts may be required in some sectors during the winter months, and that gas in the warehouses may sometimes run out due to bad weather conditions.
TTF, which closed last week at 240 Euro/MWh, increased to 290 Euro/MWh in early transactions on Monday.
TTF saw its historical record with 348 Euros in August with the news that Nord Stream 1 will be closed for only 3 days.
In the words of the German Foreign Minister; “Uncertainties in Russian gas supplies will test the EU's solidarity this winter”.
It will take place in the hardest approaching winter for Germany and Europe. When the energy demand of the industry is added to the heating need of the household, we will see that production will be waived in some months.
The market share of the Germans will be shared by their allies!
I think they will shed crocodile tears, even if they seem to be on the side of their allies against the helplessness of the Germans. Because Germany is one of the countries where the U.S. has the largest current account deficit, and Japan, which continues to buy energy from Russia, will benefit from the increase in the production cost of the Germans and the decrease in the number of goods produced in the global goods competition. While sharing market share, the alliance will not be discussed.
Let's not forget how the U.S. used the Volkswagen scandal as a weapon against Germany very recently. In fact, the scandal created by the revelation that the U.S. secret service was listening to German statesmen is still fresh in our memories.
The "Energy War" launched by Russia in response to the "Economic War" started a little earlier than we anticipated, but it was inevitable. The results of this step will be effective.
Türkiye looks like it will breeze through the winter without any problems at the beginning of the pipeline passing through its own territories. For years, Erdogan's efforts to pass energy lines through our country and increase their diversity have paid off on this rainy day. It is necessary to read the steps taken by Erdogan toward nuclear energy in this context. Any country can be exposed to an Economic War at any time, but paper money can't feed the hungry. For this reason, every step to be taken in energy and agriculture is a very valuable one when it comes to national security.
