I have repeatedly stated that this winter will be very harsh and that it is pregnant with a lot of developments. Nowadays, not a day goes by where the signs of descending into the perfect storm do not multiply. No matter how you look at it, Europe is in jus as much pain as Russia.

The term “Great Moderation” was first introduced into the economics literature in 2002 by James Stock and Mark Watson to describe how the U.S. economy was supposedly freed from economic cycles, free of surprises, and had entered a period of low inflation and the future is easily foreseen. It was popularized after it as used by former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

However, less than 5 years later, the 2008 crisis, which was addressed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, broke out, and even the mere thought of returning to the past has become unthinkable, let alone a predictable economic cycle.

Is it now Europe's turn? What happened for Lehman Brothers today is close to happening for the two European banks.

Those who do business with the opponents of Turkey, so that Türkiye cannot move forward, who point their fingers at Türkiye, and who are so skilled at plotting against it! (there's just the tip of the iceberg!) Europe is now making an effort to somehow keep its “too big to fail” banks afloat.

While the shares of Credit Suisse, which manages 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars of assets, were at the level of 14.90 dollars in February 2021, it has decreased to 3.90 dollars as of October, and the shares of Deutsche Bank have increased to 7.65 Euros from their peaks of 45 Euros, which they rose after the 2008 crisis. or regressed.

Credit Suisse's 14-year CDS reached its highest level since 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2022. Now the chance of the bank's bonds defaulting in 5 years is about 23%, which is a very, very high rate. Normally, no one would even be willing to do business to buy the bonds of an institution that will go bankrupt with a one-fourth probability. However, since it is behind EU walls, it has immunity armor, of course, for now…

Credit Suisse's market cap has dropped from over 30 billion francs in approximately March 2021 to 9.5 billion Swiss francs this week, meaning any share sale could have a significant and lasting impact.

Both banks are part of what they call “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFI), namely “too big to fail” banks. However, Europe does not have much leeway even if it wanted to try and save them.

While Italy, which is almost the only buyer of government bonds and the European Central Bank, and Spain, which is very close to it, are supported by the European Union for compelling reasons, the rest of Europe seems to have fallen into a sick bed!

With the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the Arab rich suffered the most. Many sources have stated for years that most of the sinking money was Arab capital. Some even described it as an operation to seize Arab capital.

Now it's time for who will foot the bill for the loss that will occur as a result of the developments in Europe. Even if it does not go bankrupt today, while the alarms are being sounded for European companies, the seizure of Russian assets by the West, which regards those who are not as enemies, is the last straw.

The only proven safe haven for Middle Eastern capital remains; it is Erdogan-led Türkiye.

Erdogan's strong, sustainable and sincere attitude is the reason why he has secured himself a place in the hearts of the Turkish nation and the region. On top of that, he keeps his promises at all costs. That is why Erdogan-led Türkiye, which the West cannot cope with, is a haven of trust.