In an atmosphere in which the June 24 elections are being discussed, a question is being asked: Will Turkey be in an another ''spiral of elections'' if Tayyip Erdoğan wins the presidential elections but the Justice and Development (AK) Party loses the majority of seats in parliament? As a matter of fact, this topic is even being discussed in London.
Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimsek, who recently went to London to meet with investors, was also asked: “Is it true that there will be an another election in Turkey within a year?’’ First of all, let’s underline it in bold letters: The last thing that Turkey needs after the June 24 elections is to be in a premature election spiral.
You will ask why? Let me explain why.
Developing countries like us are getting involved one by one in the IMF program or are being forced to get involved in the system.
It can now be clearly seen that Turkey is trying to be included in a possible or planned system of instability.
Credit rating agencies are ill-intentioned, not investors
I have talked about these issues recently with a well-known cabinet figure famous for keeping his distance from conspiracy theories.
We discussed the discrepancies between the stance of investors and that of credit rating agencies regarding the Turkish economy.
In summary he said that;
What is important for investors is the future/safety of their money, not ideology. When asking questions about Turkey, they act on the calculation of whether they will have a profit or loss by investing in Turkey.
-Because that group has that kind of point view, when Turkey acts upon the expectations of markets, investors perceive it positively and determine their own positions accordingly.
-On the other hand, there are credit rating agencies that are politically motivated, and are exposed to the influence of operational actors.
- They make time-adjusted moves. As we have seen so often in recent days, whenever a step is taken to reduce the stress of the markets, they take immediate action to minimalize or eliminate the positive effects of this step.
For example:
When looking at the ‘’sporadic’’ times that Moody's, S & P and Fitch took action, it was clearly seen that the time-biding moments were on April 18 when the snap elections were announced, with the markets reacting positively, and also when the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey acted to halt the increase in exchange rates.
This is the situation.
I should stress that my intention, when expressing that the last thing that Turkey needs after the June 24 elections is an election spiral, was mainly about these concerns.
A certain circle is making efforts trying to force Turkey to get involved with the IMF like other developing countries. What is most desired by those who manage these circles is an atmosphere of ''Turkey needs another election'' to form after June 24.
Are there any choices other than holding another election, if Tayyip Erdoğan is elected president but the AK Party doesn’t succeed in getting the majority of seats in parliament on June 24?
Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek has answered the financial circles in London as to whether the will be fresh elections within a year.
Şimşek responds to this question, which is based on the possibility of Erdoğan winning the election but the AK Party losing the majority in the parliament, through Turkey's budget.
He says: "Even if the Parliament vetoes the budget prepared by the president, it wouldn’t change anything. The president can continue to use the previous budget by adding the inflation rate to it."
This answer satisfied finance circles in London. They were convinced that it wouldn't be necessary to hold a re-election within a year in such a condition. The constitutional amendments approved in the referendum on April 16 also provide other guarantees that protect the president who doesn't have the support of the majority in the Parliament. But it is also impossible to say that the president will be completely free to do much in such a situation.
