One of the best news to come in 2020 so far was the discovery of natural gas from the Black Sea, announced by President Tayyip Erdoğan last month.
1.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent to 320 billion cubic meters of gas exploration and Turkey, found the largest reserves history.
In addition, this discovery made in the Sakarya field was second in the global list of biggest natural gas finds in 2020, and first among those made beneath the sea.
But the story doesn't end there.
When the first discovery was announced as good news back in August, it was said that there were two more layers in the same region, and the amount of natural gas found with the drilling works to be carried out there could be "revised" upwards.
We are now talking mere weeks, not months, before that second piece of good news. Because the studies conducted are offering promising new data.
"We caught a whale, not anchovies"
Turkey will save from $41 billion per year on its imported energy bill, this discovery might make Turkey one of the world’s energy exporters, I want to relay to you the murmurs I heard from the corridors of those governing this historic process.
The following is being said:
“Extremely crucial new updates will come in the near future. It may even happen this month. This discovery makes up a much smaller portion of the reservoir located there. This is an enormous basin. To those who ask: you got anchovies? A shark? I say: We caught a whale. A whale."
Let us continue:
“This is the first reservoir (the area where 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas is located) that we dug from the corner of that basin. This is an incredibly soft region with its topography, made up of clay and sand. The Mediterranean is more difficult. 5,000 to 6,000 meters are being explored. Its tomographic structure is hard. But here, the Black Sea is not at all like that. "
"IT’S GOOD WE FOUND GAS, OIL HAS ONLY A 20-YEAR SHELF LIFE LEFT"
Are you one of those people who think: if only we had found oil, not gas?
We are aware that there is a tendency to think oil is a more valuable find than natural gas.
Honestly, I was thinking along those lines until I heard the phrase “I’m actually glad it was gas we found” from those who are familiar with the topic.
It is said that oil has lost its old sheen. We’re told that with the widespread use of electricity, its value will decrease even further. In fact, the date is set, it is estimated that oil will cease to matter in the next 20 years.
What about natural gas?
Let's proceed with what those who are in charge of his discovery are saying:
“From heating to industry, power plants, even petrochemical plants, they are all gas-centric. How will that be felt in our day-to-day life? During the winter, Someone paying a bill of 400 lira will end up paying a mere 100 TL. What will its contribution be to the industrial sector? Manufacturers will end up pay a third, or a quarter of what they used to pay before. Competition will increase. Export capacity will skyrocket. The third aspect is electricity. Gas powered power stations. Just as one variable in an equation distorts all other variables, it affects them negatively and positively. Are we aware of the domino effect?"
Contract terms of natural gas agreements, which were executed and concluded in secret in the 90s and imposed heavy obligations such as "Buy or pay" at high prices, are set to expire as of 2021.
These discoveries in the Black Sea have been on our agenda in a very crucial period of time.
Even if this country will continue to import gas from abroad, Turkey's bargaining power has increased dramatically as its hand has been strengthened.
A few days ago, a senior Energy Department official told Reuters that, " Turkey expects gas suppliers to offer more competitive pricing and flexibility if they want to renew long-term contracts totaling 16 billion cubic meters a year.”
What does all that mean?
It means if push comes to shove, we now have the luxury of saying "I’m not going to buy your gas."
President Tayyip Erdogan said the following in his speech to the nation after the Cabinet meeting held on Sept. 7:
“The Sakarya natural gas reserve is the second largest resource discovered in the world this year, with an oil equivalent of 1.9 billion barrels. It is also among the few reserves in the world in terms of gas quality. We will make you even happier with more good news. "
Clues as to the nature of the good news mentioned by the President are already becoming clear.
This indicates a paradigm shift in the energy sector, fromTurkey's current account deficit to a date where an end will be put to this.
Are you aware how important this is?