What will the world be like post-corona? - MEHMET ACET

What will the world be like post-corona?

The International Olympic Committee resisted for some time and put up a fight, but eventually grasped the fact that the Games could not be held this year and gave up.

The fresh report is:

The Tokyo Olympics planned to be held in 2020 has been postponed. If you look at the times the Olympics, which have been held once every four years since 1896, were cancelled, you will understand that this decision to postpone is no ordinary news.

1916, 1940, and 1944.

The Olympics were postponed during these three periods alone. The first was World War I, and the other two were postponed during World War II.

In other words, this is going to be the first time the Olympics will be postponed due to a global pandemic, a reason other than global warfare.

You must have realized that such reports hold significance that transcends the cancellation of sports competitions that bring together the world.

THE HOPE OF MARKETS: A V-SHAPE FALL and RISE

Questions that we do not know the answers to are being asked. These are big questions. As Turkish Presidential Speaker İbrahim Kalın says, “We are in the middle of a milestone. We are going through a great breaking point. Nothing is going to be as it used to.”

What will the world be like after this great fracture?

This is the million-dollar question.

Economy experts predict that a shrinkage between 14 and 50 percent will occur in the U.S. economy during the second quarter of 2020. If it lasts a little longer, unemployment will erupt and major bankruptcies will occur.

A financial crisis had broken out in the year 2008. Coronavirus’ “sudden life-stopping” effect is going to lead to outcomes that directly impact the real sector.

The only hope in such an atmosphere is that the coronavirus loses its impact fast, life goes back to normal and the data rapidly improves.

The formation of a V-shaped curve: a fall to the bottom and quick rise in other words. Those testing the pulse of the markets are saying, “Such such and such is being bought right now.” In other words, an investment is being made in hope.

I spoke to a source who has expertise and knowledge in economy and analysis. He said:

-A “sudden halt” is in question in all areas worldwide, with the exception of food. The system has broken down, supply chains are being broken, even if for a short time.

-For the time being, markets are undergoing an extremely deep crisis that is hoped to be overcome in a short period of time. States are going to intervene and the crisis is going to be overcome without exacerbation. This is what everybody depends on. China having taken the coronavirus epidemic under control extends hope to the rest of the world that the crisis will not last long. This is what the market is saying for now.

-Meanwhile, if the epidemic is prolonged, if a second and third wave hits us, then there may be a long-term recession.

In such atmospheres, analyses made under economic discourses alone may not suffice. Just as the postponement of the Olympics leads to other associations, we also need to contemplate on the results which the epidemic will lead to in areas other than the economy.

For example:

The 1929 economic crisrs and World War II, which erupted a decade later, cannot be considered independent of one another.

The chaos had led to the unemployment of 50 million people worldwide, with total decline in production at 42 percent and world trade at 65 percent.

We know that in recent years, economy circles have been making comparisons between the crises the world experienced in 1929 and 1939 and the economic and political conditions of today, leading to discussions that establish a parallel between the two periods.

A few months ago, U.S. billionaire and investor Raymond Dalio had further narrowed down this timeframe and said, “The current state of the world economy is quite similar with the state of the world between 1935 and 1940.”

Allow me to highlight; at the time this statement was made, predictions were made with respect to a possible global crisis in 2020, but there was not a single word about the coronavirus. In other words, we know that discussions were made in serious gathering places prior to the global pandemic that the global order is crumbling. Covid-19 came on top of such an atmosphere as a much bigger “doomsayer.”

The optimistic scenario is that the coronavirus epidemic will be taken under control by late May, if not early June. If this is the case, then damage control will really be a lot easier with the V-shape curve, and things may go well. If the virus mutates positively and loses impact like SARS, which is considered its baby, this scenario will become a reality. However, there is benefit in keeping in mind that other options leading to a worst case scenario are also possible.

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