We are entering the most critical period of the June 24 elections.
There is one week to go…
A week in which the remaining voters who are ambivalent will make their final decision on what they will do and for whom they will vote.
The direction the wind will blow in this week is of great significance.
The reason is that no one has been able to answer these two crucial questions regarding the June 24 elections properly which are a week away.
- Question 1: Will the presidential elections conclude in the first round?
- Question 2: Can the Justice and Development (AK) Party get parliament majority with over 300 seats in Turkey alone or with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)?
Yes, it can be said, especially for the first question, that Erdoğan is likely to win the first round. Can we say this for certain? We can’t really be sure.
There is an unpredictable situation in parliamentary elections because of its more critical and more complex nature.
A clear estimation can be made depending on a condition.
What is that condition? If the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) doesn't pass the election threshold, the Justice and Development (AK) Party will get the clear majority in parliament.
Those who have left their decision to the final week of the elections
We have heard, from those in the know, that the voter profile of those who have left their choice to the final week is generally a mass that is highly-educated and that takes into account more than one criteria. I have a question that I have reduced to a sentence inspired from my mother's expressions:
The question being: ‘’Who can rule the country best?’’
I assume that the final week's voters will make their final decision by pondering this question the most. The question, "Who can rule this country best?", has within itself the question of, "In which case will we be left to face an adventure-filled future?"
Thus, we can say that the profile of voters that left their decision to the last week will be a group that decides in terms of logic rather than emotions.
Each voter has two votes now, not one
According to the new system, there is a reality that should be in a corner of all political parties' minds in June 24 elections and those that will be held later.
What is that reality?
From now on, each voter has two votes. What does that even mean? There is no certainty that these two votes will go to the same address.
I predict that 15 percent of the voters will act in this way in the elections.
This makes it harder to make an accurate estimation.
I can give some examples of voter behavior that I have experienced during the election campaigns.
- I have come across people who will vote for Erdoğan in the presidential election but will not vote for AK Party in the parliamentary election, or vice versa;
- I have also come across people who said that they will vote for the Republican People's Party (CHP)’s presidential candidate Muharrem İnce but will vote for the İYİ (Good) Party in parliamentary elections.
- There are those who said that they will vote for İYİ (Good) Party’s presidential candidate Meral Akşener but will vote for the MHP in parliamentary elections.
- There are those who said that they will vote for AK Party’s presidential candidate Tayyip Erdoğan but will vote for the CHP in parliamentary elections.
In previous elections, when more than two votes were casted, we have seen a mass of voters who did not act with a fixed view, or with a sense of belonging to a party. For instance, I will give an example from local elections in Ankara's Etimesgut district in March 2014.
In this district, the highest votes for the Metropolitan Municipality were casted for the CHP; for the MHP in the District Municipality elections; and for the AK Party for the Municipal Council.
What does this data show us? Votes aren't that easy to get.
Voter turnout could determine the elections
We can say that the turnout of voters can directly affect the results of the elections. As opposed to what was thought about the turnout in the presidential elections held in August 2014, AK Party's voters didn't go to polls as much when compared with the CHP's voters in rural areas.
If we have the same case on June 24, the presidential election will go to the second round.