Will the US be able to stop Turkey’s operation east of the Euphrates? - MEHMET ACET

Will the US be able to stop Turkey’s operation east of the Euphrates?

I turned to my sources in Ankara in an attempt to understand the context, goals and intentions of the operation that is expected to be launched in Syria east of the Euphrates River.

On the gravity of the current situation east of the Euphrates, a security source said: “We could face the same threat that has been occupying Turkey in Iraq’s Qandil for the past 4 decades in Syria for the next four decades.

President Erdoğan, regarding the U.S.’s new stalling tactics in Manbij said that “They are playing the fool with us.”

The question: “Is Ankara’s actual short term goal to liberate Manbij?” has been on our minds.

My source clearly replied: “No.”

So whatever may happen in Manbij, the intentions regarding the operation east of the Euphrates will not change.

It seems like the end has come for terrorists of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) east of the Euphrates, who think that sunny days await them under the protective cover of the U.S.

We can interpret the words of Riyad Dirar, the co-president of the Syrian Democratic Council, which is made up of SDF members consisting of PYD terrorists, as: “The U.S. hasn’t given us any assurance regarding a possible Turkish operation. Our fighters cannot resist against a great attack. The Assad regime must intervene and protect his borders.”

He sent an SOS to more than one party with this message.

Will the U.S. change its tune?

Riyad Dirar is right.

With the Afrin operation, it has been proven that the PKK/YPG terror group has no chance against the Turkish Armed Forces, which have impressive land and air forces.

Furthermore, when considered from a geographical and physical point of view, it is easier to conduct an operation in these areas.

The main question that now remains is the stance of the U.S. in face of a possible Turkish operation.

This is what we know:

The U.S. doesn’t want Turkey to fire a single bullet into these areas.

It would be misleading to think that the U.S. would show less sensitivity regarding risks targeting the project it established with its own hands than the sensitivity it displayed towards operation Euphrates Shield and Afrin in the past.

Hence, asking whether the U.S. will allow a Turkish operation is futile.

The right question to ask would be: To what extent will the U.S. back up in face of Turkish pressure?

Or will the U.S. administration-- which stalls one ally and tells the other ally to “go”—be convinced in establishing a new balance between its two allies?

According to my security source, a sort of “arm wrestle” is currently going on.

The same source also says that if the U.S. displays a pragmatic attitude, like it has done in all situations, then Turkish pressure might yield results.

Will the U.S. pull out its own soldiers inside the YPG to safe zones?

According to the headline of yesterday’s Sabah daily, President Erdoğan called U.S. President Donald Trump after announcing that Turkey “will start an operation east of the Euphrates,” telling him, “We know the coordinates of each and every one of your soldiers; if you have any within the YPG terror organization, please pull them out.”

We’re even looking at a disastrous scenario in the case of a U.S. soldier coming in harm’s way by mistake in the operation.

The same goes for the U.S.

Any painful outcome for such a possibility will be two-way.

In this case, Washington will use all its cards to pressure Turkey before it goes into action; however, it’s more plausible to think that in the case of not being able to get Ankara to back down, Washington will transfer its soldiers to safe zones through coordinates.

Journalist Serdar Turgut, who has his finger on Washington’s pulse, wrote that the White House was determined to issue a harsh statement following Erdoğan’s meeting with Trump, but it was blocked after taking into account Russia’s intention of further damaging Turkey-U.S. ties.

Taking into consideration the retracted statement mentioned by Serdar Turgut, it makes it easier for us to understand what measures are put into gear, meaning that whatever was going on behind the scenes during this time is over.

What is it?

The attempt to deter Turkey from taking action, with the same pressure that has been applied all along, maybe even with threats.

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