On our agenda is Russia, which continues to keep tensions high after the downing of its jet; contrasting statements from the Baghdad administration and Northern Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) regarding the presence of Turkish troops in Bashiqa; Syria; Russia and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which have now become even closer in Syria; and the PKK, which, in line with this, has hopes that the ditches dug up in the southeast of Turkey will help serve its cause.
The sides are becoming increasingly clear. Meanwhile, the news that a new "counterterrorism alliance" was established by 34 Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, arrived before even getting to the details of the Syrian opposition meeting that took place in Riyadh just last week... Game-setters no longer need to use an activator to set up games.
The dominos fall whether you like it or not; the flow of events has reached the point of reaction that can give the desired result in the equation.
As last-minute developments follow one after the other, there are major happenings in Libya, which is slightly far from here, but where developments close to those happening here are taking place.
The sides in Libya, which experienced division between the two different Tobruk- and Tripoli-based parliaments following the ouster of Moammar Ghadhafi, and where the coup attempt by Gen. Khalifa Khaftar was prevented by the Tripoli government, have reconciled. In accordance with the agreement announced in Tunis, the Tripoli- and Tobruk-based house of representatives is going to form a committee which will elect the reconciliation government and prime minister. Elections are foreseen to be held within two years. Also, joint action will be taken in the fight against Daesh.
My sources in the Tripoli government, which I observed made efforts for a long time to reach this agreement, said all 84 representatives of Tripoli were quick to sign their support for the agreement. However, the signing ceremony expected to take place in Morocco was postponed again yesterday. If it is not postponed once more, it is expected to be signed today. Although no official statements have been made regarding any postponement, according to the information my sources base on the Tripoli government President Aguila Saleh Issa, the Tripoli administration is under heavy pressure from the UAE and Egypt. The person informing Tripoli that the regime of Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi and Abu Dhabi's crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed refraining from signing the agreement reached as a result of negotiations by UN Libya Special Representative Martin Kobler, as well as threats that they insist on the draft prepared by former Special Representative Bernardino Leon or a bloody process awaits them, is no stranger: Mohammed bin Dahlan.
In my November 12, 2015 column titled “Was the Russian passenger plane downed by Daesh?" I had written about Dahlan: “Daesh's strongest presence and support in Libya is found around Sirte, the birthplace of Moammar Gadhafi. Libya's tribal structure is a result of the continued loyalty of those living in the region to Gadhafi and his relatives. However, Daesh's power and support here brings to mind the question 'Why?' and its answer. The popular opinion in Tripoli and Misurata regarding Daesh's import to Libya is through Gadhafi's cousin Ahmad Gadhaf al-Dam, who fled to Egypt, with the support of Mohammed Dahlan sponsored by the UAE. It is said that Ahmad Gadhaf confessed to this in a statement he made on Egyptian television."
Palestinian Dahlan is an interestingly dark figure. We first heard his name as a Mossad-backed prominent figure against Hamas in Gaza and Palestine; however in later years, we come across him in wider-scale regional games. We saw Dahlan, who is an adviser to the UAE, only three days ago at an international restricted-attendance meeting organized by Russian President Vladimir Putin. His name is mentioned in Somalia – in fact it is said he is behind the attack on the Turkish committee – and in the organization of the Gulf capital that supported the Gezi incidents. He is also behind the Tamarod Movement that initiated the revolutions against the Arab Spring in 2013, in other words, he is one of the founders of the Egyptian coup. In summary, if the threat sent to prevent contracting of the agreement reached is being sent with him, it is difficult to expect any good to come from it.
Meanwhile, it should not be forgotten that UN Libya former Special Representative Leon, who held mediation meetings in Libya for almost a year, left his position to Kobler upon news last month that he accepted a high-salary position this summer from a think tank founded by the UAE. Also of course the correspondence between Leon, who obviously accepted the job offer with a daily salary of 1,000 pounds (approximately TL 4,500), and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, and his comments explaining one by one how Leon is going to “push Tripoli into a corner"… The first name that comes to mind in terms of who established this connection and took the job offer to Leon, is, again, Dahlan.
While the open source news alone aimed at the relationship of Dahlan and UAE administrators with, for example, Tony Blair, Blackwater's founder Eric Prince and former Mossad agents, is enough to raise hairs, you think about the rest. Add to this what the UAE really wants to do while being thought of as though it is, along with the Gulf countries, against the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria, but in the meantime hosting Assad's mother in Dubai and keeping his money in Abu Dhabi banks. You will notice that many others besides the players we memorized on the line spanning from Libya to Syria, Russia to Yemen, are setting up different games.