On Thursday night, Iran and the P5+1 countries (US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) arrived at an agreement over certain parameters, which constitutes a pre-agreement, in the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Lausanne, Switzerland. The negotiations will continue and diplomats will proceed to work over the technical matters. A comprehensive agreement is expected to be completed before the end of June.
According to the pre-agreement; Iran will reduce two thirds of its centrifuges, will not establish a new nuclear plant for 15 years, reduce its uranium stock and will not increase it over 3,67%. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) observers will have access to all Iran's nuclear plants and they will have the authority to monitor them. If Iran violates these conditions, the UN or the U.S. will be allowed to suspend the agreement.
Will Iran violate the conditions? We will see. Will there be an ultimate agreement after the pre-agreement? We will wait and see. However, it's possible to expect the sanction burden over Iran to significantly be lightened in this process.
Even some people in Turkey, who were saying “Turkey shouldn't turn into Iran", and the Gülen Organization, who look under every rock for an “Iran trap/game" and the “muta marriage", or "arranged marriage", and who is suffering from the Persian allergy, started praising Iran; this shows us that Iran's way in every field will be cleared. Are they pulling tricks on us with their spiritual praises and columns that draws an Erdoğan-Ahmedinejad analogy, or are they approaching the matter from such a shallow point of view, I'm not sure. However, my guess is that these people will steer towards wherever the U.S. shifts the helm. Thus, let's not be surprised if Iran becomes these people's second favorite country in the South in the future.
Of course, this is also closely related with the winner of the American Presidential Elections in 2016. Because the assumptions are that if the Republicans triumph in the presidential elections, even if the agreement in question has been finalized in June, they will be making an effort to cancel it. Seeing that the Republican wing provided Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu a chance to speak in the Senate last month, despite the Obama Administration's stance against this, and this speech being completely about the nuclear negotiations with Iran is reinforcing this view.
However…. Some Israel experts had noticed that in that same speech, Netanyahu shifted from his “there should be no agreements made with Iran" attitude to a “you cannot trust Iran; however…. if they won't develop nuclear weapons or harbor nuclear experts, then why not?" frequency. In other words, Iran's enmity against the agreement might completely be a strategic and encouraging situation; Israel might be satisfied with the agreement other than the technical details.
As a matter of fact, like all the developments in the region, the matter of Iran's nuclear technologies is also becoming popular, falling off the agenda or changing form based on political and strategic balances. If the West's attitude in nuclear matters was based on idealist reasons, then today Israel would have been also obliged to apply the same negotiation conditions, like all the other countries in the world that possess the technology to produce nuclear weapons. Of course, this is not the matter. Similar to how the objective of producing an atomic bomb is to prevent all the countries (other than the ones that possess atomic bombs) from acting independently and cause a big war, and even though this objective looks funny on paper, the objective of the negotiations with Iran is to prevent other countries in the Middle East to have the strongest weapons the West possesses (excluding all the other weapons), other than the countries they choose. Thus, unless the world finds a more effective weapon of mass destruction other than nuclear weapons, the nuclear will continue being a political tool and strategic weapon. During that time, it will be free to spread death with every kind of conventional method other than nuclear.
After all, as the economic sanctions directed at Iran are eased, Iran will transmit more weapons and money to the Shi'ite militia groups, which Iran arms and financially supports, in the region. Despite being a part of this agreement that is under the lead of the U.S., Russia will not be happy with this in the long run. Moreover, in the near future, Russia might even make a lunge at the matter by arming the groups fighting against Iran, other than Al – Qaeda. Maybe they already did. In other words, this nuclear agreement will serve the conventional weapon providers the most. Thus, the intensity of the bloodshed in the region will increase even more.
Of course, until the U.S. decides to change its partner, this political collocation that appears as a “peace" agreement will continue.
Funeral organizers
Of course, the Iranian community had taken to the streets hoping that the sanctions will be lifted, and they celebrated the pre-agreement as if they had won the World Cup. Even the regime-objectors had participated in these celebrations that are important for the country. Even the people, who are against the West, didn't attempt to sabotage the nuclear negotiations, despite their skeptical approach. Even the Iranian humanists, who didn't object to the Sunni bloodshed for the sake of Shi'ite expansionism or actively fighting in Syria or any other foreign policy move of Iran, had sided with the country's benefits, no matter what internal issues they have. On the contrary to the display in our country. After all, the situation in our country, in other words, conducting actions that might sabotage the country's foreign policy and interests regardless of the internal arguments are and shouting as loud as they can, cannot be found in any other country, other than the disintegrated ones.
Forgetting about the 35-year Iran hatred due to Iran's nuclear negotiations and change into a “Come here, I'm going to kiss you" mood and trying to make insinuations on their own country in the international field over this incident, is only unique to us and the funeral organizers, who allowed other countries to invade their own country at the risk of pushing their country off the cliff.
What can we say? May God forbid it.
